The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after November 25, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
11/20 Update: James Hibberd at THRfeed reports that ABC will order no more Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone or Dirty Sexy Money episodes. Stick a fork in them, they're done. Life on Mars has received an order for four additional episodes and will go on hiatus beginning December 11 and return on January 28 (a Wednesday) at 10pm after LOST.
In a topsy turvy week for the Renew/Cancel Index, it seems like the future of more shows became uncertain than became certain. Multiple versions of ABCs winter schedule made available online to advertisers showed a variety of outcomes for Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone Dirty Sexy Money, and Life On Mars. As I write this the fate of those shows all still officially hangs in the balance.
It seemed pretty definitive that NBC's Lipstick Jungle and My Own Worst Enemy were cancelled last week. Lipstick Jungle was a surprise to no one. My Own Worst Enemy getting cancelled at this point in the season was a surprise to me. However, now there is doubt about the fate of Lipstick Jungle. Is it entirely crazy fan fantasy egged on by a desperate Brooke Shields? We may know soon enough.
To summarize, at this point Pushing Daisies (ABC), Eli Stone(ABC), Dirty Sexy Money (ABC), are cancelled. Life On Mars (ABC) has survived for now, four additional episodes have been ordered. Lipstick Jungle (NBC) is at high risk of Cancellation by January. I'd say the prognosis looks grim for *each* of them, but because ABC may not want to axe so many shows, perhaps not for *all* of them. All other shows seem safe through May.
The distortion for Fox show Indexes from the World Series which temporarily boosted Fox's 18-49 average seems to be settling out, the Fox weekly 18-49 average this week was not too far below its season to date average, so there is unlikely to be too much more settling. It's almost time to worry again about 2009-10 renewal for Fox shows with low Index numbers.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season's renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking "No way would the networks cancel all of those shows", there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that's just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancellation by January, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 303 | 1,370 | 0.22 | final 11/23 |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 377 | 1,370 | 0.28 | final 11/23 |
| CRUSOE (2) | NBC | 1,605 | 3,730 | 0.43 | 13 ep mini-series |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,790 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2) (6) | NBC | 2,190 | 3,730 | 0.59 | cancelled? |
| THE EX-LIST (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,080 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,790 | 0.62 | off schedule |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 885 | 1,370 | 0.65 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,644 | 4,090 | 0.65 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,688 | 4,090 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,731 | 4,090 | 0.67 | cancelled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,787 | 4,090 | 0.68 | final 13 ep season |
| LIFE - WED ONLY (4) | NBC | 2,556 | 3,730 | 0.69 | now Wed |
| OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,812 | 4,080 | 0.69 | |
| THE GAME (2) | CW | 985 | 1,370 | 0.72 | |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 2,948 | 4,080 | 0.72 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,012 | 4,080 | 0.74 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,824 | 3,790 | 0.75 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,791 | 3,730 | 0.75 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,915 | 3,730 | 0.78 | |
| PRISON BREAK (5) | FOX | 3,095 | 3,790 | 0.82 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,350 | 4,080 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,453 | 4,080 | 0.85 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,162 | 3,730 | 0.85 | cancelled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,273 | 3,730 | 0.88 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,600 | 4,090 | 0.88 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,606 | 4,080 | 0.88 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,212 | 1,370 | 0.88 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,317 | 3,730 | 0.89 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,658 | 4,080 | 0.90 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,669 | 4,090 | 0.90 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,674 | 4,090 | 0.90 | |
| SHOWS BELOW THIS LINE LAST SEASON WERE TYPICALLY RENEWED | |||||
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,525 | 3,730 | 0.95 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,971 | 4,090 | 0.97 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,053 | 4,080 | 0.99 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,067 | 4,080 | 1.00 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,275 | 3,790 | 1.13 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,679 | 4,080 | 1.15 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,420 | 3,790 | 1.17 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,804 | 4,080 | 1.18 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,842 | 4,080 | 1.19 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,857 | 4,090 | 1.19 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,857 | 4,080 | 1.19 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,601 | 3,790 | 1.21 | not renewed |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,601 | 3,730 | 1.23 | final season |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,118 | 4,080 | 1.25 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,227 | 4,080 | 1.28 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,243 | 4,080 | 1.29 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,818 | 3,730 | 1.29 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,011 | 3,790 | 1.32 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,820 | 1,370 | 1.33 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 5,155 | 3,730 | 1.38 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,691 | 3,790 | 1.50 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,079 | 1,370 | 1.52 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,681 | 3,730 | 1.52 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,906 | 3,790 | 1.56 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,139 | 1,370 | 1.56 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,421 | 4,080 | 1.57 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,988 | 3,730 | 1.61 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,223 | 1,370 | 1.62 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,252 | 1,370 | 1.64 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,709 | 3,790 | 1.77 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,261 | 4,080 | 1.78 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,969 | 4,090 | 1.95 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,163 | 4,090 | 2.00 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal. FYI, Numb3rs Index was 0.76 last year, so it's close to safe by that measure.
(3) New Advs of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
(5) Prison Break. Evidence that this is the final season for the show is mounting.
(6) Lipstick Jungle. While Lipstick Jungle has moved from Wednesday to Friday, this is the season to date average for both nights. If, somehow, Lipstick Jungle survives past January, I will include only its Friday average going forward. Until then, it's not worth the work.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY (1) | CW | 353 | 1,370 | 0.26 | final 11/23 |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,730 | 0.39 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,882 | 4,090 | 0.46 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,723 | 3,730 | 0.46 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 1,961 | 4,090 | 0.48 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,836 | 3,790 | 0.48 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,140 | 4,090 | 0.52 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,148 | 4,080 | 0.53 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,003 | 3,790 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,090 | 0.53 | cancelled |
| COPS | FOX | 2,142 | 3,790 | 0.57 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,790 | 0.58 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,559 | 4,090 | 0.63 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,469 | 3,790 | 0.65 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,537 | 3,790 | 0.67 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,543 | 3,730 | 0.68 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,896 | 4,090 | 0.71 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,815 | 3,730 | 0.75 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,957 | 3,790 | 0.78 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,395 | 4,090 | 0.83 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,224 | 1,370 | 0.89 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,199 | 4,080 | 1.03 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,420 | 4,080 | 1.08 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,139 | 3,730 | 1.11 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,849 | 4,090 | 1.19 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,428 | 3,730 | 1.19 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,914 | 4,090 | 1.20 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,636 | 4,080 | 1.38 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,751 | 4,090 | 1.41 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,778 | 3,730 | 1.55 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,123 | 3,790 | 1.62 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model | CW | 2,515 | 1,370 | 1.84 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,653 | 3,730 | 2.32 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow. Eli Stone is now the lowest rated scripted show on ABC. Yet it’s the one that will be saved? I will never understand that.
This is kind of a random question, but does anyone know if new episodes of valentine/easy money going to air? They play the repeats every Sunday night and it seems to me like they might as well put the new ones on.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
I want Ugly Betty to stay!!!!
Bill – last season for 2007-2008, how many shows were cancelled by the end?
Nice to see Samantha Who? moving back toward the green. I’ll never understand it if ABC cancels Life on Mars at this point and leaves Eli Stone.
I’m still surprised NBC was so quick with the hook on My Own Worst Enemy. Didn’t give it enough time to gain an audience.
argh…
Calling all Nielson families…
Calling all Nielson families…
Watch TSCC!
I don’t get it. I thought that Pushing Daisies was doing a lot worse than Eli Stone. So how come the list now shows Eli Stone higher in the danger zone than PD and Dirty Sexy Money?
I guess because PD got a slight climb in the ratings due to the Obama program that aired on every channel during a new PD episode? Over all, the ratings are still smaller. I guess it also got a climb in the demo ratings?
Julia, it has been a boost that it hasn’t aired at all. ELI STONE has just done worse and worse. Because it keeps doing worse it dropped below PUSHING DAISIES. However if PD doesn’t do as well as it did the last time it aired (a season high with only Obama against it) then it’s likely to drop in the index next week.
The key here really is that ES has just dropped to abysmal rating levels.
Julia, Nick is right. The math in this case is pretty simple for Eli relative to PD. PD’s average didn’t go down because it didn’t air. I don’t know the exact 18-49 viewer number for Eli for the week because we don’t see 18-49 weekly data by #of viewers and we don’t see enough decimals of the ratings point to calculate it accurately. But it had a 1.8/5 so in round numbers, Eli had 1.68 million 18-49 viewers last week, since that was well below its season average, it pulled the average down noticeably week over week.
Well i’ll be one of the few watching PD on wednesday night. Wish i was a Nielsen family than i could help raise that 18-49 demo.
maahem, ” last season for 2007-2008, how many shows were cancelled by the end?” is a damn good question. So good, I’m going to put the answer in the post above as well.
There were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran that did not come back for 2008-9.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
While 2007-8 was a unique year because of the strike, it’s not clear that the strike may have caused the networks to cancel *fewer* shows than they otherwise might have. I’ll look back at the past years we have data for tomorrow and see what their cancellation numbers were.
Chuck will be renewed almost predictably, it’s like one of NBC’s new “babies”.
Life I see getting renewed also, but it will be a last chance renewal.
“Nice to see Samantha Who? moving back toward the green. I’ll never understand it if ABC cancels Life on Mars at this point and leaves Eli Stone.”
Samantha Who? moves back into the green thanks in part to “Dancing with the Stars” not to be confused with the Circus of the Stars specials of yesteryear. I say this cause someone like to use the later title to tag DWTS. As much as I like LoM the reason why that goes and Eli Stone stays is because of the money. It seems that Eli Stone is cheaper to hang on to that Mars.
We shall find out who stays and goes tomorrow and then some.
Nice to see Heroes still in the green…Tim K., Plan that series EXIT some time NEXT YEAR!!! I wish people would get that message. Also watch how the ’24′ TV movie does this coming Sunday. That sure is going to hurt Heroes as well. Good thing that DWTS is off during the winter.
Meanwhile I am hoping that the UK version of LoM gets a DVD release. That and ‘Ashes to Ashes.’
No wonder cable is gaining.
I am a little confused I see that Ghost Whisperer is now in the green. I was just wondering if their chances of being renewed were good?
Sorry one more thing. Is there a place or someone who could tell me what the renewal/cancelation index means? meaning what do the numbers mean? Meaning if Ghost Whisperer is at .85 is that good or bad?
At this point, the only way GW doesn’t get renewed is if Jennifer Love Hewitt wants out. Based on the ratings so far, it’s a lock for next year.
It probably won’t make it to the 0.92 level on the index, but the threshold is lower for Friday nights. Even at it’s current level, it’s the highest rated show on Friday night in both overall viewers and the demo.
Jennifer, Sorry one more thing. Is there a place or someone who could tell me what the renewal/cancelation index means?
Read the text under the color-coded list, especially the paragraph that starts with “How do we come up with this list?” Also read note #2, since it is about Friday night.
You mentioned in an article that no-one cared about MOWE. You are wrong LJ may have received 1500 signatures in less than a week but MOWE is at 2100 in less than a week. Check for yourself:
We, the undersigned, have greatly enjoyed the new NBC TV show, My Own Worst Enemy. We are upset that the series has been cancelled. We ask that you continue to produce and air the show so that it will have a chance at growing a larger audience.
The timeslot is obviously not working. Why not try another? You have put a lot of time and money into promotion. Why throw that all away so quickly?
http://tvseriesfinale.com/articles/my-own-worst-enemy-petition-nbc-to-%20keep-the-christian-slater-tv-show-on-the-air/
C’mon give the show a break and mention how many fans they do have! You are like the TV god!!!
If necessary, we ask that you find a new channel in the NBC Universal family to air it or, at the very least, bring the series to a fulfilling conclusion. There are millions of viewers who enjoy this program each week. Why throw that away?
Thank you for your consideration.
Sign the Petition 2122 Entries – 213 Pages Bold = New Entries
Dena, Bill didn’t mention that, that’s on me. I’m sorry — I meant relatively speaking nobody cares, which isn’t the same as absolutely nobody cares.
Jennifer, Holly covered my response pretty well, I’d just add that both Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs were renewed last season with Indexes below all the other CBS shows that were renewed, almost certainly because they were on Friday. My guess is that if they reach the relative ratings they got last year, they’ll be renewed again. Ghost Whisper is there, Numb3rs is close.