The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after December 2, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
The dust has now settled on the mid-season changes for the broadcast networks after the announcements last week that Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money and Lipstick Jungle are all cancelled after their episodes run out in mid-season.
With the mid-season changes behind us, this seemed like a good week to recap the results of the Renew / Cancel Index.
Except for My Own Worst Enemy, the Index called every mid-season show cancellation this fall well in advance:
- Easy Money, Valentine: Predicted on 10/07
- Do Not Disturb: Top of the first Index on 9/30, but Fox had just cancelled it.
- The Ex-List: Predicted on 10/14
- Lipstick Jungle: Predicted on 10/14
- 'Til Death: Predicted on 9/30
- Pushing Daisies: Predicted on 10/14
- Eli Stone: Predicted on 10/28
- Dirty Sexy Money: Predicted on 10/28
- My Own Worst Enemy: Not predicted
The mid-season cancellation warnings by the Index had five false positives, shows that were identified as being in danger at some point that survived past mid-season:
- Life
- Knight Rider
- The New Adventures of Old Christine
- Everybody Hates Chris
- Gary Unmarried
Starting this week, I'm going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season's Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it's because their 18-49 trend has been positive.
I'm going to stop mentioning the past distortion for Fox show Indexes from the World Series which temporarily boosted Fox's network 18-49 average. The Fox 18-49 average is now something close to it's non-World Series number and the Fox show Indexes can be evaluated reasonably now.
The meaning of the color coding has changed slightly. The dark red color now means simply Cancelled/Not Returning, instead of predicted Cancellation in January.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
Unfortunately, the initial chart contained the weekly 18-49 averages for the networks and not their season to date averages. The chart has been corrected, but I will not be redoing the color coding for it.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,370 | 0.21 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,370 | 0.25 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,543 | 3,700 | 0.42 | now Sat |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,810 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,121 | 3,700 | 0.57 | cancelled |
| THE EX-LIST | CBS | 2,443 | 4,080 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,810 | 0.62 | off sched |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,545 | 4,100 | 0.62 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,624 | 4,100 | 0.64 | cancelled |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,658 | 4,100 | 0.65 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 890 | 1,370 | 0.65 | |
| LIFE - WED ONLY | NBC | 2,461 | 3,700 | 0.67 | now Wed |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,790 | 4,100 | 0.68 | final seaon |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,855 | 4,080 | 0.70 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 987 | 1,370 | 0.72 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,692 | 3,700 | 0.73 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,795 | 3,810 | 0.73 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2,994 | 4,080 | 0.73 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,080 | 4,080 | 0.75 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,893 | 3,700 | 0.78 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,079 | 3,810 | 0.81 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,014 | 3,700 | 0.81 | cancelled |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,344 | 4,080 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,468 | 4,080 | 0.85 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,575 | 4,100 | 0.87 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,239 | 3,700 | 0.88 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,201 | 1,370 | 0.88 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,580 | 4,080 | 0.88 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,616 | 4,100 | 0.88 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,633 | 4,080 | 0.89 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,682 | 4,100 | 0.90 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,343 | 3,700 | 0.90 | |
| Last Season Shows Below This Line Were Typically Renewed | |||||
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,843 | 4,100 | 0.94 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,523 | 3,700 | 0.95 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,011 | 4,080 | 0.98 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,069 | 4,080 | 1.00 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,266 | 3,810 | 1.12 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,713 | 4,080 | 1.16 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,420 | 3,810 | 1.16 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,778 | 4,080 | 1.17 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,814 | 4,080 | 1.18 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,858 | 4,100 | 1.18 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,879 | 4,080 | 1.20 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,601 | 3,810 | 1.21 | not renewed |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,588 | 3,700 | 1.24 | final season? |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,192 | 4,080 | 1.27 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,269 | 4,080 | 1.29 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,288 | 4,080 | 1.30 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,836 | 3,700 | 1.31 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,046 | 3,810 | 1.32 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,825 | 1,370 | 1.33 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,992 | 3,700 | 1.35 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,691 | 3,810 | 1.49 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,577 | 3,700 | 1.51 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,065 | 1,370 | 1.51 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,906 | 3,810 | 1.55 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,132 | 1,370 | 1.56 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,480 | 4,080 | 1.59 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,204 | 1,370 | 1.61 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,955 | 3,700 | 1.61 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,230 | 1,370 | 1.63 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,159 | 4,080 | 1.75 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,784 | 3,810 | 1.78 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,969 | 4,100 | 1.94 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,174 | 4,100 | 1.99 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking "No way would the networks cancel all of those shows", there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that's just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
Unfortunately, the initial chart contained the weekly 18-49 averages for the networks and not their season to date averages. The chart has been corrected, but I will not be redoing the color coding for it.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,370 | 0.26 | cancelled |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,700 | 0.39 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,699 | 3,700 | 0.46 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,929 | 4,100 | 0.47 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,830 | 3,810 | 0.48 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,050 | 4,100 | 0.50 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,162 | 4,100 | 0.53 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,017 | 3,810 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,100 | 0.53 | cancelled |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,199 | 4,080 | 0.54 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,156 | 3,810 | 0.57 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,810 | 0.57 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,649 | 4,100 | 0.65 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,465 | 3,810 | 0.65 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,549 | 3,810 | 0.67 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,499 | 3,700 | 0.68 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,896 | 4,100 | 0.71 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,902 | 3,810 | 0.76 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,526 | 4,100 | 0.86 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,244 | 1,370 | 0.91 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,130 | 4,080 | 1.01 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,329 | 4,080 | 1.06 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,152 | 3,700 | 1.12 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,370 | 3,700 | 1.18 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,914 | 4,100 | 1.20 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,920 | 4,100 | 1.20 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,599 | 4,080 | 1.37 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,749 | 4,100 | 1.40 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,676 | 3,700 | 1.53 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,110 | 3,810 | 1.60 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model | CW | 2,562 | 1,370 | 1.87 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,532 | 3,700 | 2.31 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow Heroes 18-49 fell but the average fell lower: cool
Was Numb3rs renewed at .74 last season?
God E.R is not going anywhere while NBC can still claw their hands into it while it holds strong.
Julia, It was 0.76 last year, but since Ex-List got canceled, it’s been doing a lot better, so it should continue to go up in the index.
Julia, as Holly wrote it was renewed last season with an Index of 0.76, and it’s got a positive trend for its 18-49 ratings this season, so I think it’s in good shape.
Fin, I think you may be right about ER, but NBC is still advertising it as the “Final Season”, so I’m not willing at this point to predict renewal.
Chuck is safe! Keep it up Chuck! I guess it helps that NBC’s average is so low…
Hole in the wall might be the worst show idea of all time
can not believe those idiots at abc cancelled the one show able to captivate my attention in the last ten years. a- holes
Renewal is likely of Kath and Kim? I don’t see that happening.
i think that Kath and Kim would probably get renemed because its like another 30 Rock and NBC has confidence in that show.
WHY DO YOU KEEP ON SAYING THAT LIPSTICK JUNGLE IS CANCELLED?! PRODUCTION IS ON HOLD FOR 2 MONTHS DOESN’T MEAN IT’S CANCELLED! ANNOUNCE THAT IT’S CANCELLED IF IT’S NOT IN THE FALL 09 SCHEDULE! GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!
Based on the original post at http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800, I would put the renew/cancel line at 0.90. That is also cleaner.
So glad they were wrong about Old Christine and Gary Unmarried! I think that has to be one of the most enjoyable hours of comedy this season!
Keep in mind that NBC’s averages are skewed by Sunday Night Football. Since that won’t be airing come winter, and NBC’s overall averages are likely to drop when facing off against American Idol/24, etc…well, Kath & Kim’s .94 now is practically a 1.00. If it sinks as low as .90, it’ll still be safe since that’s an average show after you take away the anomaly that is the NFL weekly.
Actually, Kath & Kim is screwed by the new series premiering mid-season from some of The Office team….if it airs at 8:30, it will be a much better lead-in for The Office and a key way to snag viewers of TO/30 Rock that never tune in to the hour that airs prior…plus, if the show is creatively better, it could grab some of Earl’s leftover audience as well. Since NBC doesn’t have any other comedy blocks, Kath actually looks pretty screwed once that show begins airing as there just won’t be anywhere else to air a solitary, critically reviled sitcom.
I think NBC would be smarter to do some shuffling and dump My Name is Earl for a few weeks to try out a new block with 30 Rock/Kath & Kim/Office/New Office. Seems like the new show would most benefit from leading out from The Office, and 30 Rock has been strong enough this season that it couldn’t hurt to try it in place of MNIE. MNIE has no room for growth and can only continue to bring down the entire night, while Kath & Kim might actually make it with a different lead in.
Im glad Chuck is above the line. That show is awesome!!
When does Eleventh hour get its back nine? I still think that is is trouble because of low retention, high costs and few other CBS shows to cancel. Didn’t Big Shots get canceled at a higher average?
Eli Stone is going the way of the Dodo bird…so depressing
Julia, the problem is that The Office is the tent pole of the night. If you stop having 30 Rock lead-out of The Office, it will lose PLENTY of viewers that are only watching because they like it (but don’t love it) and it airs after The Office. A new show created by The Office team would be a waste to have airing AFTER The Office since it will already snag that audience in the first place. For me, there’s a group of people that watch The Office/30 Rock every week that would certainly be willing to expand their habits to 90 minutes instead of an hour…but they’re going to have more reason to tune in a half hour early if you chuck the “new office” on a half hour early. Otherwise, too many lazy people will just tune it at 9 as usual and have a show they would have watched anyway air right after a similar program.