Comments on: Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money, Lipstick Jungle Are Final Mid-Season Casualties

By: JimmyRotten

JimmyRotten — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 05:49:00 +0000

To save Eli Stone, sign the petition:

http://tvseriesfinale.com/articles/eli-stone-petition-to-save-the-cancelled-abc-tv-show/

By: Eddie

Eddie — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:42:06 +0000

I could not see both The Game and Everybody Hates Chris being cancelled. I think it would cause a huge backlash because it would leave no African-American shows on Broadcast TV. But you may have a point, they probably stuck it on Friday nights to fail…..

By: Ken A

Ken A — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:01:47 +0000

The only ABC show my family watchs is Eli Stone. ABC changed the format around and got rid of most of the musical visions, so it’s not as good as it was the first season, but we’ll still be sad to see it go.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:23:50 +0000

I think PRIVILEGED will be canceled to make room for one of the midseason shows if it doesn’t do better behind GG.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:27:37 +0000

marenamoo, there may very well be other factors that cause a show to be cancelled, particularly internal economic ones that we have no idea about.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:24:49 +0000

Fin, the TAMI is pretty much used for NBC PR purposes only. The reality is that the other things that it counts, besides the TV viewership that we report, amounts to almost no money at this point compared to traditional TV advertising, so it’s likely to have little bearing on show futures.

By: Fin

Fin — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:54:35 +0000

Robert the new TAMI system for NBC shows that ‘Heroes’ (http://heroeswiki.com/TAMi#Season_Three_.28as_of_11.2F25.2F08.29) has 16.54 million average veiwers this season: which is awesome. But if this applies to Heroes and reportly 10 other NBC shows: then does this mean that for NBC shows the 18-49 index will have less relevance in terms of cancellations?

By: marenamoo

marenamoo — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 20:40:39 +0000

My question is a what do you do with CBS after you analyze indexes and trends. Except for two comedies, The Unit (which is actually pretty stable on Sundays but still in danger) and the already canceled Ex-List, what do they have left to cancel? Do you make a numeric presumption that a network will want to bring in a certain percentage of fresh ideas. I would think that some renewal likely cancellations would occur (although I hate the idea of a NCIS spin-off, that show is about the characters not the premise). Does that question move beyond the numbers which you provide and move more into the realm of speculation or is there another level of analysis that would help. Cost of production, age of product?

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 23:51:30 +0000

Ben, indeed, it would have been better for me to have written “once successful” or “marginally successful” instead of “successful”.

By: Ben

Ben — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 23:47:24 +0000

But then again, if the show was successful, the broadcast networks would be reluctant to let the show go.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 23:21:25 +0000

Mo, it’s not impossible the way say, the Detroit Lions winning the Super Bowl is, but cable networks that decide to buy new episodes of a broadcast show (like USA and Law & Order:CI, for example) typically do it with *successful* shows which Eli Stone was not.

By: Mo

Mo — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 23:16:47 +0000

Is there anyway to get eli stone on a cable network, USA, TNT, etc? Just wondering if they ever pickup shows and what can the fans of eli stone do. Thank you for any feedback!

By: Julia

Julia — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:16:46 +0000

Johnthemon, read the commentary.

By: Johnthemon

Johnthemon — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:15:58 +0000

why are “Without a Trace” and “Cold Case” in the green? They’re below the line shouldn’t they be orange?

I hope Chuck gets up to a 1.0 by the end of the season. 0.97 is kind of pathetic.

By: josh

josh — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 08:44:28 +0000

Any chance LIFE might get a JAG change and get another network to pick up it with some real advertising?

By: cjhtwo

cjhtwo — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 04:37:50 +0000

I watch 30% of the shows that have been cancelled! And if Crusoe falls off the bubble, that brings it up to 40%! I guess I’ll have a less complicated schedule for my VCR’s, but I will have lost a lot.

By: dirtysexyj

dirtysexyj — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 16:07:58 +0000

61% accuracy. bah

By: DaisiesDeathKnell

DaisiesDeathKnell — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 03:23:38 +0000

Good point. I actually did think up the 100 episode business and the fact that Chris is the sort of series that would play well in re-runs…I guess if there’s enough incentive and the networks is only losing a minor amount by producing each new episode…

By: Janelle

Janelle — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 01:15:50 +0000

Riff Rafferty, you are such a woman hater! Obviously you’ve some issues!
Don’t forget to watch Lipstick Jungle on Dec 5th at 9pm!

By: Riff Rafferty

Riff Rafferty — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:55:31 +0000

Ignore the ratings of “Everybody Hates Chris.” The CW has financial incentive to produce a fifth season of it — even if it’s just 13 episodes. They (CBS Paramount) own the show outright and it has a good off-net deal (local affiliates and Nick at Nite) in Fall ’09. And since somebody else mentioned “Bernie Mac,” which was also moved to Friday in its fourth season, well, there you go. They were renewed for a fifth. Because FOX owned the show and wanted 100 episodes. It’s just not common or sensible for a network who has full ownership of a comedy to shitcan it right before it launches an off-net run. Of course Steve McPherson did just that with “My Wife and Kids,” but he’s senseless, so that makes sense.

P.S. Is there a place we can lock up all the “LIPSTICK JUNGLE ISN’T CANCELLED!” crowd so we never have to hear that again?

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:03:58 +0000

Tom, one thing I learned this fall is that that veteran shows, no matter how badly they’re doing are very unlikely to be cancelled at mid-season. Knowing that in advance I never for a moment would have predicted that EHC or Christine would go down in mid-season.

MOWE is also “Silverman-era NBC” and was given the death sentence after 4 episodes. I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions based on those 3 very different data points.

I have not seen CW’s schedule, but I doubt Privileged gets canned before the end of the season, and maybe not then.

You’re right, the lack of LJ in NBC’s Jan schedule proves nothing. The fact that it’s NBC’s lowest regular (non-mini series) 18-49 demo rated scripted show proves that it’s dead.

By: Holly

Holly — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:08:52 +0000

**Tom** Sorry for the extra e

By: Holly

Holly — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:08:18 +0000

Tome, CBS did order more episodes for Gary Unmarried (I think it was 7 episodes and 2 more scripts). They also ordered 4 more episodes of Worst Week. I think Privileged might have gotten a full season as well, but I’m not sure. No word on Eleventh Hour.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 17:55:55 +0000

In regards to your false positives:
EHC films their order very early on; last year they had their entire order done by the time the WGA strike kicked in. There is simply no economic point in a “mid-season” cancellation of a show with two episodes left to film.

Life & KR need a steroids-like asterisk next to them, with a footnote that reads “Silverman-era NBC”.

Regarding WW/GU/Eleventh Hour/Privileged, have CBS/CW actually announced their Spring schedules yet / have we heard from the showrunners that they are getting full season orders? I haven’t seen any sign that their fates are actually known yet.

And as much as I hate giving them hope, LJ not appearing on NBC’s January-only schedule proves nothing: Neither do Heroes/Life/Chuck/Kings/Apprentice, yet we all know they will be aired in 2009 (even if we all know LJ is in fact cancelled).

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 17:33:32 +0000

While I’m not surprised that there was some sensitivity I think the point of it is this: THE INDEX WORKS! It’s not 100% perfect (no method will be 100%!), but it’s a very good and very useful tool for predicting.

If it had turned out it wasn’t, I’m sure Bill would have given the index a bad grade in public, and gone back to the drawing board.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 17:05:32 +0000

Lisa, I think Ugly Betty looks to be one of the “bubble” shows that fans are biting their fingers over in April/May. While all the “orange” shows are in danger, their situations are not the same. As I said in the post,
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

By: Lisa

Lisa — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 16:58:36 +0000

Seeing that Lipstick Jungle’s ratings last week slumped right back down, I don’t think that’s the kind of growth NBC needed to see to justify ordering more episodes. The numbers stink even by NBC’s standards this season. Anyone who’s still holding out serious hope that the show will go on needs to face reality and admit that it probably is not going to happen.

Is Ugly Betty really in that much danger? I thought the show was pretty much holding its own considering the tough timeslot.

By: ljo

ljo — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:41:48 +0000

I agree with Julia. I think Bill was merely intending the comments as a report on the usefulness of the Index as a predictive tool. I don’t think he intentionally meant to offend anyone. (Although some of those whiny comments do have a certain entertainment value.)

By: Fin

Fin — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:12:54 +0000

Salt in your wounds? what do you want them to say? Well it was cancelled but saying its bad and therefore we wont… why would it be annoying that they were right: but thats the part you hate. I bet you convinced yourself that this index was wrong but when it was more accurate than you think you start accusing it of commenting on the plain obvious: stating it cruel. Though it is an inguineous thing they have created. Get over yourself: oh and they created a website that is awesome so i don’t think your comment was valid (only the numbers): how would people understand it???? The show was cancelled get over it.

By: kAREN

kAREN — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:29:12 +0000

LIPSTICK JUNGLE LIVES
Reports of the demise of “Lipstick Jungle” may have been premature. Ben Silverman, the co-chairman of NBC Entertainment, said the network will definitely finish the 13 episodes that it originally ordered — it has four more episodes to go — and may order more if the show “grows more.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/18/arts/television/18arts-LIPSTICKJUNG_BRF.html?_r=1&ref=television

By: Kathy

Kathy — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:05:11 +0000

Way to go Chuck!

Bill, just wanted to say that I love this site. So glad I found it.

By: Chris the TV sage

Chris the TV sage — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:57:34 +0000

John Locke, I have a compromise.

The guys will continue to run this site exactly as they are doing so now… and you will deal.

By: GRD

GRD — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:36:10 +0000

I know you’re not happy, John Locke, but no one’s trying to put salt in your cuts. Calm down.

By: Julia

Julia — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:29:24 +0000

It’s testing the accuracy of the index. There is nothing wrong with that, and you need to stop being so bitter.

By: Charles

Charles — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:16:33 +0000

I don’t think it’s about ego John Locke. I’d say it simply reinforces exactly what they have been saying for the past few months in terms of whether or not this was a viable way of reading whether or not shows would be canceled. I happen to believe this is an invaluable resource [especially for someone who actually works in television on the producer side].

It’s the internet, perhaps you need to lighten up a little. Robert and Bill do an excellent job with this site and if they want to provide commentary they will. Don’t like it, start your own site.

By: Alde

Alde — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 12:58:47 +0000

John Locke, excellent post.

By: DaisiesDeathKnell

DaisiesDeathKnell — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 08:25:29 +0000

I don’t think we’ll see much of an out-cry for Everybody Hates Chris even though it’s now the de-facto bubble series. It earned strong critical acclaim out of the gate but then by the end of its first season devolved into yet another family comedy reminiscent of The Bernie Mac Show. In fact, I think Mac had kind of a similar run and ended up being burned off on Fridays. Anyway, if this were early in its first season, this place would be flooded with vocal supporters including myself. Since then? Nah.

By: John Locke

John Locke — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 07:12:31 +0000

It sucks enough that Pushing Daisies is cancelled but you don’t need to put salt on the cut by saying you predicted it all along in October. Get over your ego and just give us the numbers…hints the name of the site.

By: Dan

Dan — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 05:18:02 +0000

It’s unlikely that Privileged, The Unit, Terminator or Prison Break will make it to the 2009-2010 season. However Ugly Betty is doing better, and the numbers for Gary Unmarried & Old Christine are starting to rise so don’t be quick to put them on the cancellation by May list. Same with Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Both of those are doing badly but they do air on Fridays so they should be cut some slack. Everything else on the list seems accurate to what might happen come May.

By: Julia

Julia — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 04:08:51 +0000

I don’t think it will work that way, but since NBC is rarely smart, they likely will leave My Name is Earl, and try it your way, so I guess we’ll see.

By: DaisiesDeathKnell

DaisiesDeathKnell — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 03:52:20 +0000

Julia, the problem is that The Office is the tent pole of the night. If you stop having 30 Rock lead-out of The Office, it will lose PLENTY of viewers that are only watching because they like it (but don’t love it) and it airs after The Office. A new show created by The Office team would be a waste to have airing AFTER The Office since it will already snag that audience in the first place. For me, there’s a group of people that watch The Office/30 Rock every week that would certainly be willing to expand their habits to 90 minutes instead of an hour…but they’re going to have more reason to tune in a half hour early if you chuck the “new office” on a half hour early. Otherwise, too many lazy people will just tune it at 9 as usual and have a show they would have watched anyway air right after a similar program.

By: Jason

Jason — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 02:56:03 +0000

Eli Stone is going the way of the Dodo bird…so depressing

By: marenamoo

marenamoo — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 02:14:55 +0000

When does Eleventh hour get its back nine? I still think that is is trouble because of low retention, high costs and few other CBS shows to cancel. Didn’t Big Shots get canceled at a higher average?

By: tom

tom — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 02:10:13 +0000

Im glad Chuck is above the line. That show is awesome!!

By: Julia

Julia — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:58:45 +0000

I think NBC would be smarter to do some shuffling and dump My Name is Earl for a few weeks to try out a new block with 30 Rock/Kath & Kim/Office/New Office. Seems like the new show would most benefit from leading out from The Office, and 30 Rock has been strong enough this season that it couldn’t hurt to try it in place of MNIE. MNIE has no room for growth and can only continue to bring down the entire night, while Kath & Kim might actually make it with a different lead in.

By: DaisiesDeathKnell

DaisiesDeathKnell — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:56:00 +0000

Actually, Kath & Kim is screwed by the new series premiering mid-season from some of The Office team….if it airs at 8:30, it will be a much better lead-in for The Office and a key way to snag viewers of TO/30 Rock that never tune in to the hour that airs prior…plus, if the show is creatively better, it could grab some of Earl’s leftover audience as well. Since NBC doesn’t have any other comedy blocks, Kath actually looks pretty screwed once that show begins airing as there just won’t be anywhere else to air a solitary, critically reviled sitcom.

By: DaisiesDeathKnell

DaisiesDeathKnell — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:50:53 +0000

Keep in mind that NBC’s averages are skewed by Sunday Night Football. Since that won’t be airing come winter, and NBC’s overall averages are likely to drop when facing off against American Idol/24, etc…well, Kath & Kim’s .94 now is practically a 1.00. If it sinks as low as .90, it’ll still be safe since that’s an average show after you take away the anomaly that is the NFL weekly.

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:23:09 +0000

So glad they were wrong about Old Christine and Gary Unmarried! I think that has to be one of the most enjoyable hours of comedy this season!

By: thedemonhog

thedemonhog — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:06:25 +0000

Based on the original post at http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800, I would put the renew/cancel line at 0.90. That is also cleaner.

By: Ann

Ann — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:06:02 +0000

WHY DO YOU KEEP ON SAYING THAT LIPSTICK JUNGLE IS CANCELLED?! PRODUCTION IS ON HOLD FOR 2 MONTHS DOESN’T MEAN IT’S CANCELLED! ANNOUNCE THAT IT’S CANCELLED IF IT’S NOT IN THE FALL 09 SCHEDULE! GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!