The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after December 9, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
Now that we've settled into the hoilday TV doldrums, there is unlikely to be much action for quite some time on show cancellations or renewals. New shows will be introduced to the network lineups beginning in January and we'll begin tracking them and their chances when they do, but until then all we can do is look at the marginal shows that survived past mid-season and forecast their chances today for renewal for 2009-10.
These categories are my guesses that may deviate a bit from the numbers in the Index, as I try and do a bit of fortune telling.
Prognosis Negative: Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Life, Gary Unmarried, Prison Break, Knight Rider, The Unit.
Fans of Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles and Life hope new timeslot opportunities save them, I highly doubt they will. Gary Unmarried likely doesn't get the "veteran benefit of the doubt" that Christine *may* get. Besides Prison Break's bad ratings, it's rumored to be on the way out. Only a ridiculously good deal with Ford (that we have no inside info about) could save Knight Rider. The Unit's numbers don't inspire hope, and it has CBS's worst ratings for a scripted drama.
A Fighting Chance to Survive: Law And Order, Ugly Betty, Life on Mars, Privileged.
Law & Order numbers are marginal now, but I think NBC's 18-49 average may fall enough in the spring to keep the old warhorse alive. Ugly Betty will be largely unscathed by American Idol which could boost it enough on a relative basis to survive. I'd give Life on Mars between a 25% and 50% chance of survival at this point based on nothing more than tea leaf reading. The fact that Privileged is being taken off the CW schedule in March with no word on its future is ominous.
Future renewal based on factors I cannot quantify: Everybody Hates Chris, The Game.
While their numbers are terrible, there are a number of factors that cannot be translated into numbers (from the data we get) that may keep them alive: (1) Low Friday night expectations; (2) Syndication potential; (3) "Political" concerns (can the CW cancel both its shows prominently featuring African Americans?). It's anybody's guess what will decide the fate of these two shows.
I Have No Idea: The New Adventures of Old Christine.
The ratings are bad, but are they significantly worse than CBS expected for the move to 8pm on a new night? Only Nina Tassler knows for sure.
As I wrote earlier, I’m going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season’s Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it’s because their 18-49 trend has been positive. And even though Privileged currently seems to be "safe" the fact that it's being taken out of the schedule in March with no word on its future puts it in doubt.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 288 | 1,300 | 0.22 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 345 | 1,300 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE (2) | NBC | 1,543 | 3,640 | 0.42 | now Sat |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,730 | 0.56 | cancelled |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,121 | 3,640 | 0.58 | cancelled |
| THE EX LIST (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,050 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,470 | 4,070 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,545 | 4,070 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,730 | 0.63 | off sched |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,658 | 4,070 | 0.65 | cancelled |
| LIFE - WED (4) | NBC | 2,461 | 3,640 | 0.68 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 890 | 1,300 | 0.68 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,795 | 4,070 | 0.69 | final season |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,837 | 4,050 | 0.70 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,748 | 3,730 | 0.74 | |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 2,994 | 4,050 | 0.74 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,692 | 3,640 | 0.74 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,739 | 3,640 | 0.75 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,059 | 4,050 | 0.76 | |
| THE GAME (2) | CW | 987 | 1,300 | 0.76 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,885 | 3,640 | 0.79 | cancelled |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,053 | 3,730 | 0.82 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,352 | 4,050 | 0.83 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,468 | 4,050 | 0.86 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,546 | 4,050 | 0.88 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,575 | 4,070 | 0.88 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,616 | 4,070 | 0.89 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,239 | 3,640 | 0.89 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,642 | 4,070 | 0.89 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,646 | 4,050 | 0.90 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,703 | 4,070 | 0.91 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,326 | 3,640 | 0.91 | |
| Last Season Shows Below This Line Were Typically Renewed | |||||
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,201 | 1,300 | 0.92 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,523 | 3,640 | 0.97 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,011 | 4,050 | 0.99 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,088 | 4,050 | 1.01 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,199 | 3,730 | 1.13 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,259 | 3,730 | 1.14 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,757 | 4,050 | 1.17 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,784 | 4,050 | 1.18 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,798 | 4,050 | 1.18 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,823 | 4,070 | 1.19 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,812 | 4,050 | 1.19 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,475 | 3,730 | 1.20 | not renewed |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,588 | 3,640 | 1.26 | final season |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,198 | 4,050 | 1.28 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,238 | 4,050 | 1.29 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,259 | 4,050 | 1.30 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,767 | 3,640 | 1.31 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,994 | 3,730 | 1.34 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,992 | 3,640 | 1.37 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,825 | 1,300 | 1.40 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,537 | 3,730 | 1.48 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,485 | 3,640 | 1.51 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,680 | 3,730 | 1.52 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,065 | 1,300 | 1.59 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,531 | 4,050 | 1.61 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,955 | 3,640 | 1.64 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,132 | 1,300 | 1.64 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,136 | 1,300 | 1.64 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,230 | 1,300 | 1.72 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,159 | 4,050 | 1.77 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,792 | 3,730 | 1.82 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,915 | 4,070 | 1.94 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,174 | 4,070 | 2.01 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking "No way would the networks cancel all of those shows", there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that's just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,300 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,640 | 0.40 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,699 | 3,640 | 0.47 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,929 | 4,070 | 0.47 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,830 | 3,730 | 0.49 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 4,070 | 0.50 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,162 | 4,070 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,070 | 0.53 | cancelled |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,169 | 4,050 | 0.54 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,017 | 3,730 | 0.54 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,163 | 3,730 | 0.58 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,730 | 0.59 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,637 | 4,070 | 0.65 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,440 | 3,730 | 0.65 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,541 | 3,730 | 0.68 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,494 | 3,640 | 0.69 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,920 | 4,070 | 0.72 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,902 | 3,730 | 0.78 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,107 | 1,300 | 0.85 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,571 | 4,070 | 0.88 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,185 | 4,050 | 1.03 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,490 | 4,050 | 1.11 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,077 | 3,640 | 1.12 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,340 | 3,640 | 1.19 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,903 | 4,070 | 1.20 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,365 | 4,070 | 1.32 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,599 | 4,050 | 1.38 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,788 | 4,070 | 1.42 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,636 | 3,640 | 1.55 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,110 | 3,730 | 1.64 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model | CW | 2,562 | 1,300 | 1.97 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,489 | 3,640 | 2.33 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I have to say Bill and Robert, the work you both put into this is great. Your site has really contributed to my understanding of this industry and is now the site I have to check every day. The insight into how the networks and these shows work is fantastic! It sometimes borders on high comedy.
I worked in the Promotions department for a mid-size movie studio for 18 months and could not figure out what the hell they were doing. It irked me so much I left for law school, shortly thereafter the studio was sold. For years I never understood the intricacies of TV scheduling and programming. Now, I have something.
Keep up the great work!! Go Chuck!
How are Chuck’s numbers doing as the season progresses? Has its chances for renewal went up or down? I would think that almost catching up with Heroes in viewers gives it a good shot for S3.
Life cannot be canceled. It’s one of the best shows on TV. And NBC cares about quality! They are patient with those shows (and even others that don’t deserve their patience). And Life won’t be canceled because I like it to damn much!
If we’re going with the “tea leaves” of midseason scheduling, I’d say that Privileged, Eleventh Hour, and Life on Mars getting only partial back orders puts them all into bubble territory, at best. Reaper, getting an extremely late air date and against both of the only new hits of the year, is probably already canceled; on the flipside, Supernatural & Smallville staying put highly suggests both shows will be back next year. (Although a CW-only 18-34 index would be interesting to look at.)
Chuck’s 18-49 season to date average through 10/26 was 3,320, it’s now 3,326 (through 11/30). The tiniest of upticks, but up nevertheless.
Tom, I think your logic is sound. In the late spring, I’ll do more detailed posts on individual shows that are “on the bubble”. At this point too much is unknown.
My understanding is that non-ratings related rumors (producer fatigue, obvious aging of the star) could take Smallville off the CW schedule after this year, but you are correct that the ratings are fine.
Chuck has pretty much been on the fence all season. This week: not safe, last week :safe, 2 weeks ago: not safe……
Hopefully, heavily advertised 3D episode on Feb 2 should boost Chuck to the safe zone. Also, the NBC average STD 18-49 numbers should fall once football is over and 30 Rock stop having guest stars.
Nice to see Chuck climbing into the renewal range. I think if it can continue to gain audience through the end of this year and then at least hold those viewers next spring NBC would definitely go for a Season Three.
PROGNOSIS NEGATIVE – sounds like the name of a hospital show. They could have Jerry Seinfeld as the Chief of Surgery.
Because The Unit is on Sunday nights, competing with football and often on very late due to football overrun, do you think there’s a chance the spring numbers will improve enough to get it another season? Based on your commentary, it seems like a done deal that the show is finished after this season. Thanks for all the info, love the site.
“PROGNOSIS NEGATIVE – sounds like the name of a hospital show. They could have Jerry Seinfeld as the Chief of Surgery.”
Weirdly enough, I’d probably watch it.
Michael, a boost after the end of Sunday Night Football is always possible for The Unit, but it will take quite a boost to save it.
Joe, idizzle, did you click the link? It *is* from Seinfeld
Seems like My Own Worst Enemy is getting somewhat of a bummed deal compared to other shows considering the numbers don’t look too bad, I figured it would have gotten a full season.
Why is PRIVILEGED orange?
Matt, it’s got a shortened season and it’s being pulled for Reaper. Not a good sign. It’s right on the cusp of okay, so it could easily be canceled.
So does Reaper premeiring so late mean that the CW hates it and don’t expect it to have a 3rd season, despite the fact that it is one of their best shows quality wise and was doing better numbers than some of their hyped shows.
Darius, Reaper’s start date is mysterious and unique enough that we may not find out why. It may be something with Reaper or it could be the rest of the CW schedule (like wanting to burn of all the Privileged episodes before getting rid of it for good).
I think it mostly has to do with Reaper not fitting with the CW “image.” Like I said in another post, if Smallville is gone, Reaper gets paired with Supernatural. Otherwise, if the numbers aren’t great, Reaper will be gone.
Knight rider has been shortened to 17 episodes for this season. Knewly revamped episodes will air starting in Jan.
Although Smallville is one of my favorite shows and I want another season there’s a small chance it may not happen!
source: forum member @ kryptonsite.com & TVGuide magazine
Big Plans for Smallville
Is Tom Welling ready to hang up his Superman tights right before he gets fitted for them? Executive producer Darren Swimmer wants to keep going, now that Smallville is enjoying a ratings rebound, but reveals there are some issues with “actor availability.” After 8 years playing Superboy. Tom 31, may undestandably be ready to fly off into grown-uproles.Consider Dean Cain was 27 when he began playing Superman on the 90′s ABC showLois & Clark:The New Adventures of Superman, and Brandon Routh was just 26 when he took flight in 2006′s”Superman Returns”. (Repeated calls to Tom’s reps seeking comment were not returned) The CW series has another challenge:It’s starting to feel more and more like Lois & Clark, with Clark now working outside of Smallville in Metropolis at the Daily Planet alongside Lois Lane and Jimmy Olsen. Coming to Smallville in early February is the villianous Toyman, a flamboyantly dressed classic DC villian who played on L&C first by Sherman Hemsley(the Jeffersons)and than Grant Shaud(Murphy Brown). Despite the similarites, Swimmer argues that “there’s not much of resemblance” between the two series.
While acknowledging he’s prepared for a series finale,Swimmer insists there are still a few speeding bullets left to fire off in the Superman mythology.”Clark’s now in full control of his powers and basically accepting the fact that he’s going to become Superman. The formation of the dual identity is what he’s going to be negotiating from here on out,” he says . “He’ll start to experiment.” Hmmm..bifocals?A golden lasso? New hair mousse? We’ll find out in a string of three new episodes beginning in February.
Some assemblange of the Justice League will return toward of the season’s end .The Legion Of Superheroes-three 31 century visitors named Cosmic Boy, Lighting Lad and Saturn Girl–arrive on January 15 when Clark faces off againest an atomic ax-wielding baddie from the future called the Presuader. But instead of an ax, the CW might consider sending the Presauder in to meet Tom with a fistful of cash. If negotiations fail for a ninth season, Swimmer suggest a Smallville spin-off starring
Phill Morris[John Jones AKA the Martian Manhunter], who next appears January 22. Cracks the producer, ” A Martian Manhunter Variety Hour might be fun!”
Right next to the article is a picture of TW in FOS with a little blub that says
Quote:
Clark might not be able to appear in the Superman outfit in Smallville’s final scene since it could conflict with the big-screen franchise, according to Swimmer