The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after December 16, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
With the news that NBC will give 5 hours of weekday primetime to Jay Leno coupled with the fact they air 4 hours of NFL Football on Sundays and 3 hours of reruns on Saturday, they'll only have 10 hours of airtime to program with other shows next fall. That will make the Renew / Cancel decisions for 2009-10 quite unique and now you can play along!
NBC has 11 hours of surviving shows from Fall 2008 (minus ER which is in its final season). Let's assume they want to try 2 hours of new shows (wild guess, I know, our mileage may vary). That means as an NBC programmer you've got to cut 3 hours of their existing shows. Have at it!
[poll id=15]
Note: You can choose up to five shows, but you'll have to make them add up to 3 hours yourself.
As I wrote earlier, I’m going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season’s Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it’s because their 18-49 trend has been positive. And even though Privileged currently seems to be "safe" the fact that it's being taken out of the schedule in March with no word on its future puts it in doubt.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 288 | 1,260 | 0.23 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 345 | 1,260 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,428 | 3,620 | 0.39 | now Sat |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,740 | 0.56 | cancelled |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2) | NBC | 2,051 | 3,620 | 0.57 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,419 | 4,040 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| THE EX-LIST (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,020 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,462 | 4,040 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,740 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,610 | 4,040 | 0.65 | cancelled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,805 | 4,040 | 0.69 | finished |
| THE NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,838 | 4,020 | 0.71 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 890 | 1,260 | 0.71 | |
| LIFE - WED (4) | NBC | 2,627 | 3,620 | 0.73 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,765 | 3,740 | 0.74 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,696 | 3,620 | 0.74 | |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 3,012 | 4,020 | 0.75 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,060 | 4,020 | 0.76 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,780 | 3,620 | 0.77 | cancelled |
| THE GAME (2) | CW | 987 | 1,260 | 0.78 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,050 | 3,740 | 0.82 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,982 | 3,620 | 0.82 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,352 | 4,020 | 0.83 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,449 | 4,020 | 0.86 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,532 | 4,020 | 0.88 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,563 | 4,040 | 0.88 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,203 | 3,620 | 0.88 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,583 | 4,040 | 0.89 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,610 | 4,040 | 0.89 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,626 | 4,040 | 0.90 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,138 | 1,260 | 0.90 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,648 | 4,020 | 0.91 | |
| Shows below this line were typically renewed last season | |||||
| Chuck | NBC | 3,333 | 3,620 | 0.92 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,510 | 3,620 | 0.97 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 3,961 | 4,020 | 0.99 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 3,973 | 4,020 | 0.99 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,118 | 3,740 | 1.10 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,200 | 3,740 | 1.12 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,612 | 4,020 | 1.15 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,804 | 4,020 | 1.20 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,808 | 4,020 | 1.20 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,475 | 3,740 | 1.20 | not renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,819 | 4,020 | 1.20 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,851 | 4,040 | 1.20 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,547 | 3,620 | 1.26 | final season |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,097 | 4,020 | 1.27 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,149 | 4,020 | 1.28 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,199 | 4,020 | 1.29 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,774 | 3,620 | 1.32 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,975 | 3,740 | 1.33 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,908 | 3,620 | 1.36 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,768 | 1,260 | 1.40 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,487 | 3,740 | 1.47 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,537 | 3,740 | 1.48 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,427 | 3,620 | 1.50 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,422 | 4,020 | 1.60 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,025 | 1,260 | 1.61 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,057 | 1,260 | 1.63 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,941 | 3,620 | 1.64 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,128 | 1,260 | 1.69 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,136 | 1,260 | 1.70 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,032 | 4,020 | 1.75 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,780 | 3,740 | 1.81 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,912 | 4,040 | 1.96 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,099 | 4,040 | 2.00 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking "No way would the networks cancel all of those shows", there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that's just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,260 | 0.28 | cancelled |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,620 | 0.40 | |
| Dateline FRI | NBC | 1,493 | 3,620 | 0.41 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,700 | 3,620 | 0.47 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,932 | 4,040 | 0.48 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,804 | 3,740 | 0.48 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 4,040 | 0.50 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,163 | 4,040 | 0.54 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,008 | 3,740 | 0.54 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,040 | 0.54 | cancelled |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,171 | 4,020 | 0.54 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,740 | 0.58 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,193 | 3,740 | 0.59 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,609 | 4,040 | 0.65 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,448 | 3,740 | 0.65 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,441 | 3,620 | 0.67 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,564 | 3,740 | 0.69 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,607 | 3,620 | 0.72 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,920 | 4,040 | 0.72 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,854 | 3,740 | 0.76 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,049 | 1,260 | 0.83 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,572 | 4,040 | 0.88 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,179 | 4,020 | 1.04 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,383 | 4,020 | 1.09 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,119 | 3,620 | 1.14 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,273 | 3,620 | 1.18 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,855 | 4,040 | 1.20 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,366 | 4,040 | 1.33 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,563 | 4,020 | 1.38 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,788 | 4,040 | 1.43 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,520 | 3,620 | 1.52 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,306 | 3,740 | 1.69 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model | CW | 2,564 | 1,260 | 2.03 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,359 | 3,620 | 2.31 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Cut Biggest Loser and Apprentice to an hour, get rid of Knight Rider, take out Dateline on Fridays, and move a couple of shows to Sundays after football and you’re done. Chuck and Heroes keep Mondays, Biggest Loser and SVU keep Tuesdays, Life and Law And Order keep Wednesdays (possibly cut Life for a new show if the ratings don’t pick up), the comedies keep Thursdays (cut Kath & Kim for something new), Fridays are open for Deal or no Deal and another reality show, and Sundays are open for Medium, The Apprentice, and two other new shows for after football.
If i am going to be objective about fall 2009:
Monday
8 Chuck
9 Heroes
Tuesday
Biggest Loser
Wedensday
8 The Philantropist
9 L&O: SVU
Thursday
4 comedies which includes My Name is Earl 30 Rock and The Office
Friday
8 Deal or No Deal
9 Merlin
Sunday
Sunday Night Football
I really doubt that Chuck will survive this. Deal or No Deal might move to Summer programing as well, but I don’t see that show going anytime soon. NBC is just trying to give the scripted programing a fighting chance and DoND got the short end of the stick because of this. Heroes could move into the 7/8 hour but with House (should it stay on Mondays this fall) and DWTS that might not work either.
Heroes is between a rock and a hard place. Its too bad cause I never caried for Mr. “Joy to the World I’m Getting Laid.” Yet its the most popular sitcom right now.
This whole idea of NBC’s is going to fail. That being said, if NBC is looking to cut costs, then IMO it is safe to say that the reality and game shows will end up staying. I hate those shows with a passion, but they are the cheapest thing to produce on TV.
I don’t care what NBC does with their programming as long as Chuck stays. It is the only NBC show that I watch.
ABC is already doing away with the only show that I watch on that network, Pushing Daisies.
America’a Top Model…in the “TOP 2″ … that show should go just because of it’s combined IQ …
I voted for Life (which I really like), Knight Rider, Kath & Kim, and My Name Is Earl.
Life just isn’t catching on with viewers, Knight Rider is Knight Rider, and K&K and MNIE have been creatively disappointing as well as ratings challenged.
The reality shows probably won’t get cancelled. So Life, Knight Rider and Chuck are probably goners by next fall. That sucks.
I abstain because I refuse to vote off the cable-quality “Life”, which really should be getting a boatload of Golden Globes.
I would bet that DoND won’t be on the fall schedule. They’ll use it as filler, but with the superior daily version around, the nighttime version’s ratings have (deservedly) plummeted.
This is what I can imagine NBC doing for their schedule:
Mon: Deal or No Deal, Heroes, Jay Leno
Tues: Biggest Loser, Jay Leno, Law & Order SVU.
Wed: Biggest Loser, New Drama, Jay Leno
Thurs: My Name Is Earl, The Office, 30 Rock, New Comedy/Dateline NBC Special 30 Minute Thursday Edition, Jay Leno
Fri: Dateline NBC Friday Special 2 Hour Edition, Jay Leno
Sat: Biggest Loser repeat, Jay Leno High-lights, Dateline NBC Saturday Edition
Sun: Football
M-Office/30 Rock/Kings
T-Chuck/Heroes
W-Law & Order SVU/Law & Order
Th-Biggest Loser
F-The Philanthropist/Deal or no Deal
they probably won’t change this much, but its a guess
it’ll also be difficult with shows like L&O that sometimes have to be after 10 due to content…
Sam, I don’t think Deal Or No Deal leading into Heroes would make sense at all. Something tells me Heroes wouldn’t retain much of what Deal brings in, seeing as how they’re completely different shows.
Worst case scenario, Chuck will air on Sundays after the NFL season is over. Hopefully, the Super-Bowl-fueled 3D episode will beef up its ratings.
Knight Rider, Life, Kath & Kim will be canned. My Name is Earl is a wild-card. NBC may keep if they can find another comedy to pair it up with…..Amy Phoeler project/Office spin-off. If they don’t, I can really see Chuck airing on Thursday right before the Office.
Jesse, I agree with you to some extent. However, none of these shows are going to be great lead ins to Leno. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t be shocked if Sam’s schedule or something similar to it was put into place, given that game shows and reality shows are so cheap to produce. They don’t have to have huge ratings in order for NBC to make a profit off of them.
Milf Island. First, a disclaimer: I LOVE CHUCK! It may be my favorite “fun” show at this point. It’s just plain fun. That said, worst case means WORST case! The worst-case scenario is “no Chuck at all”.
Though like you I do hope the Super Bowl promotion for the 3D episode will beef it up and that some of the new viewers will stick around.
Kath and Kim is gone. So its the Amy Poelher show/MNIE. Chuck, Knight Rider and Life canned and replaced by Kings, Philanthropist and Merlin(?). Is Merlin a mini series or a full blown tv show?
Bill or Robert
Just curious. Are the numbers used to calculate your index based on the broadcast finals for each show?
Joseph R, yes, I use the season to date Live+SD averages for all the shows. They are by definition “final”.
The networks excs are all a bunch of dummies. They are cancelling shows because viewership is down. Did the networks forget about how THEY prolonged the writers strike last spring? That is why TV viewership is down. It’s a wonder anyone came back to watch TV after that disaster. Appartently the TV viwers spoke!!
Mon:
8 – New Drama
9 – Heroes
Tues:
8-10 – Biggest Loser
Wed:
8 – New Drama
9 – Law & Order: SVU
Thurs:
8 – MNIE/New Comedy
8:30 – New Comedy
9 – The Office
9:30 – 30 Rock
Fri:
8 – Deal or No Deal
9 – Dateline/Reality Show
Sat:
8-11 – Reruns
Sun:
Fall 2009 – SNF
Winter 2010 – 4 hours free (Chuck, Medium, Apprentice, Law & Order, Dateline)
Canceled: Knight Rider, Life, Kath & Kim, MNIE (maybe), and one show listed in the Sunday 2010 slot