Benefitting from some Sarah Palin/Tina Fey magic, NBC's 30 Rock gained 1.372 milion adults 18-49 since Fall 2007 and is one of only 20 English broadcast prime-time shows to have increased its demo adults 18-49 audience (on a "Most Current" basis, see below) through the 10th week of the broadcast season vs. last season. The top 10 shows for increasing their demo audiences were How I Met Your Mother, Saturday Night Football, Gossip Girl, 60 Minutes, The OT, Supernatural, Saturday Night Football Pre-Game, The Big Bang Theory and Two and a Half Men. Most shows have lost audience, some have lost significant numbers of viewers. Fox's House lost 2.902 million adults 18-49 since last season to lead the losers. The other shows in the top 10 for most 18-49 audience losses were Private Practice, Samantha Who?, Pushing Daisies, Without A Trace, Grey's Anatomy, Heroes, Desperate Housewives, Extreme Makeover Home Edition and Are You Smarter Than A Fifth Grader?
While I post the broadcast prime-time network season to date averages and their changes from last season on a weekly basis, I decided to take a look at the results for individual fall shows vs. last season. It's a partially manual process that may have left out some shows from last fall. If you notice any omissions or possible errors please leave a comment. To be on these lists shows must have aired prior to week 11 both this season and last season.
Which shows on these lists surprised you? I've got to admit that as immersed in TV numbers as I am that Supernatural being one of the few shows to have increased surprised me. It gets no PR love from the CW.
Update: Your eyes are not playing tricks on you if you read this post immediately after it was posted. Originally, I used Live+SD numbers, but after rethinking my methods after Rob R's comment, I changed the numbers to "Most Current" DVR numbers, which include Live+7 viewing when available. The shows on the list were little changed, the magintudes of the gains were a bit more and the losses a bit less, demonstrating the increased use of DVRs from last season to this season.
Top 20 Shows For Adults 18-49 Audience Gain through Season Week 10, 2008 vs. 2007
| Rank | Programs | Net | 2008 PERSONS 18-49 (Most Current) (000) | 2007 PERSONS 18-49 (Most Current) (000) | Increase/ Decrease (000) | Increase/ Decrease % |
| 1 | 30 Rock | NBC | 5,640 | 4,268 | 1,372 | 32.1% |
| 2 | How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,576 | 4,544 | 1,032 | 22.7% |
| 3 | SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,585 | 2,696 | 889 | 33.0% |
| 4 | Gossip Girl | CW | 2,331 | 1,706 | 625 | 36.6% |
| 5 | 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,549 | 3,966 | 583 | 14.7% |
| 6 | OT, THE | FOX | 6,112 | 5,700 | 412 | 7.2% |
| 7 | SUPERNATURAL | CW | 2,127 | 1,724 | 403 | 23.4% |
| 8 | SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,038 | 1,672 | 366 | 21.9% |
| 9 | Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 5,033 | 4,756 | 277 | 5.8% |
| 10 | Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,971 | 6,760 | 211 | 3.1% |
| 11 | NCIS | CBS | 5,253 | 5,070 | 183 | 3.6% |
| 12 | GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,898 | 3,779 | 119 | 3.1% |
| 13 | 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,687 | 2,578 | 109 | 4.2% |
| 14 | Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,772 | 5,663 | 109 | 1.9% |
| 15 | MY THURSDAY NIGHT MOVIE | MNT | 677 | 576 | 101 | 17.5% |
| 16 | JAIL 2 | MNT | 840 | 799 | 41 | 5.1% |
| 17 | OFFICE | NBC | 6,990 | 6,957 | 33 | 0.5% |
| 18 | FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,496 | 2,467 | 29 | 1.2% |
| 19 | JAIL | MNT | 799 | 783 | 16 | 2.0% |
| 20 | Bones | FOX | 4,736 | 4,723 | 13 | 0.3% |
-
"Bottom" 20 Shows For Adults 18-49 Audience Loss through Season Week 10, 2008 vs. 2007
| Rank | Programs | Net | 2008 PERSONS 18-49 (Most Current) (000) | 2007 PERSONS 18-49 (Most Current) (000) | Increase/ Decrease (000) | Increase/ Decrease % |
| 1 | HOUSE | FOX | 7,666 | 10,568 | (2,902) | -27.5% |
| 2 | Private Practice | ABC | 4,149 | 6,225 | (2,076) | -33.3% |
| 3 | SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,998 | 6,054 | (2,056) | -34.0% |
| 4 | PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,819 | 4,796 | (1,977) | -41.2% |
| 5 | WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,881 | 5,674 | (1,793) | -31.6% |
| 6 | GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM | ABC | 9,560 | 11,038 | (1,478) | -13.4% |
| 7 | HEROES | NBC | 6,441 | 7,897 | (1,456) | -18.4% |
| 8 | Desperate Housewives | ABC | 8,706 | 10,143 | (1,437) | -14.2% |
| 9 | Extreme Makeover:HOME ED. | ABC | 5,036 | 6,435 | (1,399) | -21.7% |
| 10 | SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,873 | 3,249 | (1,376) | -42.4% |
| 11 | DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 3,074 | 4,335 | (1,261) | -29.1% |
| 12 | BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 5,396 | 6,646 | (1,250) | -18.8% |
| 13 | LIFE | NBC | 2,675 | 3,924 | (1,249) | -31.8% |
| 14 | DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,717 | 2,940 | (1,223) | -41.6% |
| 15 | DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,648 | 3,804 | (1,156) | -30.4% |
| 16 | PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,492 | 4,637 | (1,145) | -24.7% |
| 17 | Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 3,066 | 4,176 | (1,110) | -26.6% |
| 18 | Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 6,045 | 7,152 | (1,107) | -15.5% |
| 19 | DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,085 | 3,029 | (944) | -31.2% |
| 20 | Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 5,289 | 6,212 | (923) | -14.9% |
-
Our tables shows broadcast network prime-time shows season to date average adults 18-49 viewership for the 2008-9 season compared to the 2007-8 season through week 10 (11/30/08, 12/02/07). "Most Current" is a combination of Live+7 viewing data when available and Live+SD viewing for more recent weeks.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
Remember that as the percentage of homes with DVRs increases, it will affect these statistics, although less likely to affect the rankings. Before we conclude, for example, that the Desperate Housewives audience has eroded 22.7%, we must remember that this statistic only shows the erosion in the live/same day audience. It is likely that the TOTAL audience erosion, when one includes everyone who delayed their viewing in 2007 and the likely larger number of people who delayed their viewing in 2008, the erosion percentage might be dramatically less.
In football’s case I think it had more to do with better match ups this season than last season. The BIG12 provided ABC with a lot of drama and some extremely fun teams to watch. OU, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas were fun to watch fight it out.
Rob, you’re right about the comparison, but I bet you’re not right about the magnitude. I’m going to redo the post with “Most Current” DVR numbers which are a combination of Live+SD and Live+7. I will take the post down until I redo it.
The post has now been redone to use “Most Current” DVR numbers instead of “Live+SD” numbers. They take into account the full extent of DVR viewing that Nielsen currently measures. The magnitudes of the gains were increased somewhat and the magnitudes of the losses were reduced. Originally, only 8 shows had gains for Live+SD, 20 have gains using Most Current DVR numbers. House had lost 3.2 million adults 18-49 using Live+SD numbers, it loses only 2.9 million using Live+7 numbers.
Good to see 30 Rock and even The Office up, sad to see Pushing Daisies down.
House however has a semi-excuse in being moved to a lower HUT level time and facing stronger competition. It’s obviously losing big, but most of the other shows in the top 10 seem to have lost without any outside changes.
Pish posh, my 2 favs (The Big Bang Theory and NCIS) are winners, so why am I trying to dress up House’s numbers?
DVR viewing has become the new ” demo. ” That’s fine. I’m beginning to realize people actually make millions based on this. This is as fascinating to me as watching cobras behind a glass cage. Watching Ugly Betty for the first time, and saw a Kay jewelry ad, so I was right about Kay jewelry being a female oriented ad. Anyway, wonderful numbers to look at up there – precise, to the point. 18-49 deserting ABC like a sinking ship. But the only debate is about how much DH and GA can charge for their ads. I feel like being privledged to view tv from the perspective of the Internet is like watching Rome disintegrate from the shores of an Irish island. The detachment from the videodrome is all I ask for. I even had the savvy to find out ESPN has a Mafia style monopoly on Sports Bars. Next: get copies of these contracts – they have to be in the public domain. Having a quasimonoply on restaurants can’t hurt Disney’s overall bottom line.
What’s funny that in season 1 of how I met your mother the show was close to cancellation but the network did something smart. They released the dvd’s right away and pushed fans to recruit new viewers and we have making HIMYM a success. Other networks could learn a lesson from this. Grow the audience with good writing and the show will be a success.
According to Wikipedia (but it can be wrong, so if there is another source, post it), the DVD of HIMYM season 1 was released November 21 2006, 6 months after the season finale. Hardly straight away. But i’m glad the show is a success. It’s one of my favorites.
I’m also glad that BBT and HIMYM are doing so good. They are the two best laugh track sitcoms I have seen since Seinfeld.
Yay for Supernatural, HIMYM and 30 Rock ! They deserve it so much !
I’m very happy to see Supernatural going up. Of course Gossip Girl was going to go up, with all the promotion and magazine covers, it would be a failure if it didn’t. But SPN went up solely on quality. Imagine how much it would have gone up if it got half the promotion GG does.
Plus good job to HIMYM and BBT!
I’m really pleased to see how well Supernatural has done. It’s well deserved considering the excellent quality of this season so far, and is pretty astonishing given the fact that it gets practically no promotion from the CW.
Supernatural has really loyal fans, so possibly their word of mouth finally has shown in its viewers — lord knows it does not get the PR it deserves from the CW, or the budget (they don’t even have a second unit anymore and that crew worked their asses off for us fans from day one).
I’m so glad to see an increase in the media pointing out the amazing product that SPN is giving its fans, and how in the fourth season it hasn’t gotten stale or wrapped up in a confusing mythology.
I’m hoping it keeps going up and the increase means that the CW will give it an early Season Five pick up!
Wow, this is great for Supernatural. Just think what gains it could have made if the CW had made ANY effort to promote it.
Richard, it’s a Fox production. CBS has nothing to do with the DVDs. And as for doing anything smart with it, 20th Home Entertainment released the first season — broadcast in HD — with 4×3 transfers. That’s dumb. If I want to watch a show with the left and right sides hacked off, I’ll… well, I’ll watch CBS in lo-def. But I digress, because I don’t want to watch “How I Met Your Mother” in any format.
“30 Rock” has grown audience every season it’s been on. Great. It deserves it. Could never really figure out why people seemed to go out of their way to avoid that when it first premiered, since it took all of about 2 episodes to gel into one of the funniest sitcoms on TV. Although it probably helps that it follows a sitcom which I’m not sure is even attempting to be funny anymore.
Thanks for the shout out to Supernatural. The ONLY reason the viewership has gone up is because it has amazing fans who do ALL the promotion.
I’d like to see how it would do if the CW actually put $10 toward advertising it.
It is wonderful to see people starting to take notice of Supernatural. This gem of a show deserves so much more credit than it receives. Believe me, there is a passionate fanbase out there that has been spreading the word to anyone who will listen. That is a tremendous part of why the ratings are up. The other reason is the sheer staying power and quality of this show. If you haven’t seen it, you are really missing out!
Gossip Girl deserves to be up because it’s a great show. I’m one of its “new” viewers beginning with this season. I watched the pilot last year and kept meaning to see the other episodes but didn’t get around to it until summer. I’m sorry I waited so long. This season, I watch the show “live” every week. The shows I watch live are the ones I love. The ones I tape are the less important programs–if I like them enough, I sure don’t want to wait to see what happens!
I quit Supernatural starting with this season, though. As it went on, It felt like almost the same episode every week and I lost interest.
I was just looking at the list to see if competition in the hour/night was having an impact — for example — Grey’s is down and Supernatural and The Office and 30Rock are up. Where does CSI fall in the hunt?
Dancing with the Stars down HIMYM, Two & a Half Men, Gossip Girl up.
I echo what’s been said above — Supernatural is a great show — more people should be watching!