Yahoo Answers Visitors, Chuck has been renewed. Read all the announcements about the Broadcast TV Fall 2009 Schedules Here.
-
ABC's According to Jim has returned to dreadful ratings, but like a zombie it refuses to die. Such are the massive profits to be found in off network syndication, that a ratings black hole in prime time is worth the back end money. ATJ debuts on our Renew/Cancel list with the worst index of any currently surviving scripted show. It started off with two airings in a row, perhaps ABC is just trying to get the episodes aired as quickly as possible and move on. Let me add that while I've marked it as "Not Likely To Be Renewed", I really have no idea what will happen. It survives without ratings now, who knows how long it will live!
The holiday rerun season has begun, and with some specials mixed in will continue until late January/early February, so don't expect much meaningful action in the list before then. What you should expect is that CBS's averages, which depend heavily on scripted procedurals which rerun well, will likely maintain themselves better during reruns than some other networks, ABC in particular, which depends on two big serial dramas, Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy, which rerun poorly.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 288 | 1,230 | 0.23 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 345 | 1,230 | 0.28 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,428 | 3,670 | 0.39 | on Sat |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2) | NBC | 1,996 | 3,670 | 0.54 | cancelled |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,670 | 0.57 | cancelled |
| EX LIST, THE (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,050 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,378 | 3,910 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,389 | 3,910 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,480 | 3,910 | 0.63 | |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,484 | 3,910 | 0.64 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,670 | 0.64 | off sched |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,584 | 3,910 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,850 | 4,050 | 0.70 | |
| LIFE - WED (4) | NBC | 2,596 | 3,670 | 0.71 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 884 | 1,230 | 0.72 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,852 | 3,910 | 0.73 | finished |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,689 | 3,670 | 0.73 | cancelled |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 2,969 | 4,050 | 0.73 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,696 | 3,670 | 0.73 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,743 | 3,670 | 0.75 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,067 | 4,050 | 0.76 | |
| GAME, THE (2) | CW | 987 | 1,230 | 0.80 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,964 | 3,670 | 0.81 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,032 | 3,670 | 0.83 | |
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 3,352 | 4,050 | 0.83 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,426 | 4,050 | 0.85 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,449 | 4,050 | 0.85 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,406 | 3,910 | 0.87 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,202 | 3,670 | 0.87 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,095 | 1,230 | 0.89 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,648 | 4,050 | 0.90 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,326 | 3,670 | 0.91 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,566 | 3,910 | 0.91 | |
| Last season shows below this line were typically renewed | |||||
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,910 | 0.92 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,626 | 3,910 | 0.93 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,513 | 3,670 | 0.96 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,025 | 4,050 | 0.99 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,074 | 4,050 | 1.01 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 3,995 | 3,670 | 1.09 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,200 | 3,670 | 1.14 | |
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 4,638 | 4,050 | 1.15 | |
| Mentalist, THE | CBS | 4,694 | 4,050 | 1.16 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,258 | 3,670 | 1.16 | not renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,700 | 4,050 | 1.16 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,793 | 4,050 | 1.18 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,548 | 3,670 | 1.24 | final season |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,852 | 3,910 | 1.24 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,135 | 4,050 | 1.27 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,172 | 4,050 | 1.28 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,193 | 4,050 | 1.28 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,786 | 3,670 | 1.30 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,865 | 3,670 | 1.33 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,922 | 3,670 | 1.34 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,705 | 1,230 | 1.39 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,241 | 3,670 | 1.43 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,271 | 3,670 | 1.44 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,370 | 3,670 | 1.46 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,939 | 1,230 | 1.58 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,458 | 4,050 | 1.59 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,970 | 3,670 | 1.63 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,047 | 1,230 | 1.66 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,050 | 1,230 | 1.67 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,136 | 1,230 | 1.74 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,102 | 4,050 | 1.75 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,837 | 3,670 | 1.86 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 7,608 | 3,910 | 1.95 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,913 | 3,910 | 2.02 | |
-
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking "No way would the networks cancel all of those shows", there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that's just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
As I wrote earlier, I’m going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season’s Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it’s because their 18-49 trend has been positive. And even though Privilegedcurrently seems to be "safe" the fact that it's being taken out of the schedule in March with no word on its future puts it in doubt.
----------------------------------------------------------------
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,230 | 0.29 | cancelled |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,670 | 0.40 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,700 | 3,670 | 0.46 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,875 | 3,910 | 0.48 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,798 | 3,670 | 0.49 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 3,910 | 0.52 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,160 | 4,050 | 0.53 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,088 | 3,910 | 0.53 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,996 | 3,670 | 0.54 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 3,910 | 0.56 | cancelled |
| Dateline FRI | NBC | 2,110 | 3,670 | 0.57 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,670 | 0.60 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,188 | 3,670 | 0.60 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,564 | 3,910 | 0.66 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,439 | 3,670 | 0.66 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,532 | 3,670 | 0.69 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,550 | 3,670 | 0.69 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,607 | 3,670 | 0.71 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,892 | 3,910 | 0.74 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,952 | 3,910 | 0.75 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,854 | 3,670 | 0.78 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,018 | 1,230 | 0.83 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,572 | 3,910 | 0.91 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,180 | 4,050 | 1.03 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,505 | 4,050 | 1.11 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,179 | 3,670 | 1.14 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,330 | 3,670 | 1.18 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,855 | 3,910 | 1.24 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,543 | 4,050 | 1.37 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,369 | 3,910 | 1.37 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,789 | 3,910 | 1.48 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,638 | 3,670 | 1.54 | |
| OT, THE | FOX | 6,306 | 3,670 | 1.72 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model | CW | 2,564 | 1,230 | 2.08 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,588 | 3,670 | 2.34 |
-
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I actually like According to Jim. It’s mindless, doesn’t get preachy, and the husband isn’t always wrong.
A big difference from the regular “comedies” on the telly today.
Pearls of Wisdom – Have we not all one Father? Has not one God created us? Why do we deal treacherously with one another…? – Malachi 2:10
Chuck is making me crazy! It goes above and below the line every week. Stay Still! (Above the line).
ATJ did better than both Pushing Daisies and Eli Stone. That has to sting a bit for fans of those shows.
Could you explain what these “Off Air” things are that make According to Jim profitable. Do you mean overseas syndication or something else?
Well Robert, Im thinking of starting a SAVE ACCORDING TO JIM campaign and sending ABC SLIM JIM’s – made with real beef heart meat! Hey, it worked for JERICHO with the peanuts. Theres already 6 people on board the Save Jim train! Woo woo!
http://www.youchoose.net/campaign/save_according_to_jim
Old Christine and Gary Unmarried should not be on the “not likely to be renewed list” since the amount of viewers have actually been rising in both shows.
Jenny, off network syndication money primarily comes from local stations buying old episodes for pre-primetime viewing, like all those Seinfelds before 8pm, although foreign money may make up some of the revenue as well.
Dan, what happens to Old Christine is completely at the whim of CBS’s expectations of how much it would fall in the new timeslot, but you’re wrong on the ratings trend for both shows.
Old Christine’s STD 18-49 avg on 10/26 was 2.861m, as of 12/14 it was 2.850m.
Gary Unmarried’s STD 18-49 avg on 10/26 was 3.100m, as of 12/14 it was 3.067m.
Those would be downward trends.
I like Dan’s theory, but disagree.
Although the ratings continue to rise, it is still a big question mark on what CBS will do; either keep the Wednesday block or cancel it and just stick to the Monday block.
I hope, if they cancel the Wednesday block, that they will choose Old Christine over Gary, Rules and Worst Week, but I’m not sure what they will do.
Dang SNF is skewing the NBC demos. Chuck needs to stay!!! Chuck is just too AWESOME!!!
Thanks for the explanation Bill.
I dont understand why Ugly Betty is Unlikely to Be Renewed. ABC would be crazy to get rid of that show.
Omg, Terminator moved up a point. Yay! xD
(Yeah, I take pleasure in these little things)
I don’t really understand the over/under the line thing…? It looks like the shows UNDER the line are almost all green…so isn’t that the good place to be? I’m confused.
CBS should keep their Wednesday comedy block but strengthen it by moving a more established show there like How I Met Your Mother (this is mostly me wanting that Monday time-slot less crowded) for next season and nurture the new comedies for Mondays.
Canceled Pushing Diasies and DSM for some dumb Jim show that won’t die. In 5 years the only network that anyone will still be watching is CBS because they are too old to figure computers and DVDs out. NBC is dead, ABC will be next, Fox will die once Simon leaves AI, 24 and House end.
knight rider is cancelled why is the list not updated. Old Christine is a great show, there are so few funny comedies out there.
Jill, Knight Rider’s not cancelled as far as I know. If you have new information, link away.
Knight Rider will be back in January with the changes they made to it.
Jim is absolutely funny and has gotten funnier this season. With the kids being older now the show can start developing storylines around them. Andy is still the most underrated funniest character on television. Most people don’t watch Jim live anymore, that’s why the ratings aren’t as high as they used to be. Jim can be seen online and On Demand. Jim will probably get renewed as long as they want to do the show next year b/c the show’s value gives ABC alot of money through syndication and not just from the states but all over the world. Jim is the one show on TV that makes extra money for the network through syndication. If that wasn’t the case then it would’ve been canceled three seasons ago.
Old Christine and Gary are two of the funniest comedies on TV and their ratings are growing week to week.
Sheesh. Clearly the syndicated market is getting desperate. I guess that’s understandable given that there are so few sitcoms on the air in the past several years. There used to be a much bigger supply of sitcoms.
If the syndication profits are so high while the prime-time numbers are so low, then I wonder why According to Jim doesn’t just go straight into daily syndication, instead of airing on ABC first. Is there any precedent for such a thing? Or ABC could just wait until the summer and burn off the episodes then, as they did with the catastrophic final seasons of Drew Carey’s show. On the other hand, Jim actually did better than Eli Stone or Monday’s 20/20 so that’s pretty depressing.
Wow, this site is always informative. I had no idea AtJ actually has fans. I thought its only viewers were people using it as background noise, or falling asleep after the lead-in.