The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after December 30, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
While it may seem to many that our Renew /Cancel Index is just a continuing story of anxiety and woe, for the holiday season I think fans of Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Life, Knight Rider and Gary Unmarried should look on the bright side. Instead of lamenting the fact that they're very unlikely to be renewed for the 2009-10 season, consider that they all could easily have been cancelled early this season instead of surviving until May. At least you have another half season's worth of shows to watch! Although I know many folks out there disagree, I'm a big believer in "better to have watched and lost, then never to have watched at all!"
Update to respond to commenter Martha: I'd bet anything that CBS does not renew at *least* one of Christine, Gary Unmarried or Worst Week. I'd bet a lunch with Robert they don't renew two of them. I think they just renew one. The tricky thing is figuring out which one(s) go. Christine has done the worst, but it's a veteran and at 8pm. Gary Unmarried's done better than Christine, still it would be top of my "which one" list. Worst Week has done much better than either the other two, but it follows what are absolutely dominant complementary comedies, has it done well enough?
Of course, Monty Python fans Always Look on the Bright Side of Life.
What shows are you thankful survived, even if just for another half season?
The holiday rerun season has begun, and with some specials mixed in will continue until late January/early February, so don't expect much meaningful action in the list before then. What you should expect is that CBS's averages, which depend heavily on scripted procedurals which rerun well, will likely maintain themselves better during reruns than some other networks, ABC in particular, which depends on two big serial dramas, Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy, which rerun poorly.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 288 | 1,190 | 0.24 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 345 | 1,190 | 0.29 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,333 | 3,650 | 0.37 | on Sat |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2) | NBC | 1,998 | 3,650 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,600 | 0.58 | cancelled |
| EX LIST, THE (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,010 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,348 | 3,770 | 0.62 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,358 | 3,770 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,398 | 3,770 | 0.64 | |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,456 | 3,770 | 0.65 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,600 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,543 | 3,770 | 0.67 | cancelled |
| LIFE -WED (4) | NBC | 2,550 | 3,650 | 0.70 | |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,830 | 4,010 | 0.71 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,633 | 3,650 | 0.72 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 860 | 1,190 | 0.72 | |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 2,953 | 4,010 | 0.74 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,696 | 3,650 | 0.74 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,723 | 3,600 | 0.76 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,854 | 3,770 | 0.76 | finished |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,060 | 4,010 | 0.76 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,912 | 3,650 | 0.80 | |
| GAME, THE (2) | CW | 953 | 1,190 | 0.80 | |
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 3,268 | 4,010 | 0.81 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,019 | 3,600 | 0.84 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,107 | 3,650 | 0.85 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,444 | 4,010 | 0.86 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,264 | 3,770 | 0.87 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,493 | 4,010 | 0.87 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,053 | 1,190 | 0.88 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,588 | 4,010 | 0.89 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,339 | 3,650 | 0.91 | |
| Last season shows below this line were typically renewed | |||||
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,516 | 3,770 | 0.93 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,430 | 3,650 | 0.94 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,770 | 0.95 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,626 | 3,770 | 0.96 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 3,977 | 4,010 | 0.99 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,082 | 4,010 | 1.02 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 3,860 | 3,600 | 1.07 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,096 | 3,600 | 1.14 | not renewed |
| Bones | FOX | 4,200 | 3,600 | 1.17 | |
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 4,701 | 4,010 | 1.17 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,748 | 4,010 | 1.18 | |
| Mentalist, THE | CBS | 4,773 | 4,010 | 1.19 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,790 | 4,010 | 1.19 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,551 | 3,650 | 1.25 | final season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,600 | 3,650 | 1.26 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,852 | 3,770 | 1.29 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,169 | 4,010 | 1.29 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,195 | 4,010 | 1.30 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,204 | 4,010 | 1.30 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,699 | 3,600 | 1.31 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,789 | 3,650 | 1.31 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,656 | 1,190 | 1.39 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,074 | 3,600 | 1.41 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,077 | 3,600 | 1.41 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,333 | 3,650 | 1.46 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,855 | 1,190 | 1.56 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,728 | 3,650 | 1.57 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,527 | 4,010 | 1.63 | |
| Smallville | CW | 1,968 | 1,190 | 1.65 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1,976 | 1,190 | 1.66 | |
| CSI | CBS | 6,776 | 4,010 | 1.69 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,020 | 1,190 | 1.70 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,561 | 3,600 | 1.82 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 7,176 | 3,770 | 1.90 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,913 | 3,770 | 2.10 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). 11/20 Update: That experiment is now at an end, the MRC shows will air for the final time on 11/23/08 and the CW will begin airing repeats and movies starting on 11/30/08.
(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
And for folks thinking "No way would the networks cancel all of those shows", there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that's just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.
As I wrote earlier, I’m going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season’s Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it’s because their 18-49 trend has been positive. And even though Privilegedcurrently seems to be "safe" the fact that it's being taken out of the schedule in March with no word on its future puts it in doubt.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,190 | 0.30 | cancelled |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,650 | 0.40 | off sched |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,700 | 3,650 | 0.47 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,825 | 3,770 | 0.48 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,791 | 3,600 | 0.50 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,130 | 4,010 | 0.53 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,018 | 3,770 | 0.54 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 3,770 | 0.54 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,983 | 3,600 | 0.55 | |
| Dateline FRI | NBC | 2,062 | 3,650 | 0.56 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 3,770 | 0.58 | cancelled |
| MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD | CBS | 2,316 | 4,010 | 0.58 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,174 | 3,600 | 0.60 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,600 | 0.61 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,525 | 3,770 | 0.67 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,423 | 3,600 | 0.67 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,521 | 3,650 | 0.69 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,526 | 3,600 | 0.70 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,607 | 3,650 | 0.71 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,870 | 3,770 | 0.76 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,854 | 3,600 | 0.79 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 988 | 1,190 | 0.83 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,572 | 3,770 | 0.95 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,180 | 4,010 | 1.04 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,378 | 4,010 | 1.09 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,321 | 3,650 | 1.18 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,329 | 3,650 | 1.19 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,656 | 3,770 | 1.24 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,543 | 4,010 | 1.38 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,369 | 3,770 | 1.42 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,789 | 3,770 | 1.54 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,627 | 3,650 | 1.54 | |
| OT, THE | FOX | 6,043 | 3,600 | 1.68 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model | CW | 2,564 | 1,190 | 2.15 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,613 | 3,650 | 2.36 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I’m thankful I’ll have Chuck and Life for the rest of the season.
I don’t think Gary Unmarried will be canceled. I think it will given a chance after 2.5 Men next season.
Martha, your comment gave me an idea of something to add to the post, see above.
It’s amazing how close to the wire TSCC came. It appears that with only one exception, the shows that have actually been cancelled before their seasons ended were the shows where the Index is below 0.70. TSCC’s Index is 0.76. Talk about squeaking by!
The real question for me is, what do they do with Chuck? Chuck has got to have some kind of future at NBC. It is right below the renewal line of 0.92, but for goodness sakes, NBC doesn’t have anything to air on its network at all. Seems to me like Chuck has a core group of viewers and is accessible enough that new viewers could join the series, if they’d find something good to put with it.
Outlander, nobody at NBC has me on speed dial, but I’d be pretty positive about Chuck’s potential for another season.
Hmmmm I’ll take a hybrid of the bet for lunch — I’d bet two out of the three shows are on broadcast television next year.
Think The Unit might earn another season with a decent showing after the NFL season?
Unitfan, that’s not as much of a long shot as some comebacks folks like to comment on here, but I still think it’s unlikely.
So Bill, which show from the three CBS comedies would you put your money on? I was a little confused with your comment about Gary being the one on the ‘which one’ list.
At this point, I’d say they’re going to stick with Old Christine and put it back on Monday nights behind Two and a Half Men. The only reason being because it has proven it can deliver behind Men and that it posts respectable numbers on Wednesday with no lead-in.
Also, it is the closest to syndication, something that has to stick out in the minds of some execs. How I Met Your Mother is only at 75 episodes currently, and has already been brought into syndication by Lifetime. Old Christine won’t be far off from Mother at the end of this season.
But, like you’ve said before, it’s anyone’s guess at what CBS is thinking and what ultimate decision they will make. I’m a bit biased because I’m a big fan of Old Christine and am hoping that CBS does the right thing by it.
I’m glad to see that Chuck and Supernatural are in the green, but I’m still a bit worried about Chuck. But, as you said, at least we’re getting a full season rather than just a half this year.
And Smallville appears to be safe, but it’s renewal depends less on the ratings and more on whether or not Tom Welling wants to come back. Here’s to hoping he does!
Dave, I think Gary Unmarried is the most likely to NOT be renewed, that’s a much easier guess than which of Christine or Worst Week may not get renewed. I think that between those two there is just too much unknown in terms of CBS’s expectations for Christine to know how to separate the prospects for the two.
I think Gary Unmarried is in better shape than Worst Week though it’s all marginal I suppose. At this point TBBT and HIMYM both beat Worst Week — and though it’s true a lot of that is due to improvement in the 8pm-9pm hour, last year neither Christine or Rules of Engagement were routinely beaten in the demos by the 8pm block on Monday.
Also, Worst Week will be subject to comparisons with how Rules of Engagement performs. If Rules slips from last year and is on par w/Worst Week at 9:30pm all bets are off, but if Rules outperforms Worst Week it may temper perceptions.
Of WW, GU and Old Christine, Christine is the lock to me as it’s Warner Brothers produced (CBS has to try to have the appearance of a decent relationship with Warner Bros — and perhaps go above and beyond so long as it is the managing general partner of the CW)and Christine will be over 60 episodes after this year. If According to Jim is kept for syndication purposes…
Of course, with three comedies now doing extremely well (TBBT, HIMYM and 2.5 Men) CBS does seem a chooser rather than a beggar when it comes to sitcoms.
Always look on the bright side of life!
And the bright side for NBC’s Life is that is managed to stick it out 2 seasons.
About the three CBS comedies (don’t really care but everyone else seems to)
I think Old Christine is the most likely to be killed off. Worst Week is doing okay retaining the 2 1/2 men numbers, and Gary Unmarried grows out of Christine. Out of the three of them, despite being a veteran, I’d say Christine is the most likely to bite the dust.
There’s really nothing here that matters to me until February when Chuck and Heroes come back. Everything else that I watch is undoubtedly safe. (Fringe, Family Guy, The SImpsons, American Dad, The Office, 30 Rock)
Being an end of year list – I am thankful for my family, my house, job security and many other things including being a US citizen where we can have a peaceful transition of power. In the area of television – I am thankful for Damian Lewis and Life (and thankful that the AFI chose it as a top 10 show for the year). I am thankful for Chuck and the Middleman which brought me great joy that shows this fun are on tv. I am thankful that God finally made his way into Supernatural after three years of battling demons and that Mischa Collins is the angel. I am thankful that NCIS is the number one scripted show and is getting some notice. I am thankful that 13 has a fatal disease on House so there may be some end to the agony she brings to watching the show. Even though I don’t watch Grey’s Anatomy, I am thankful for any reason to have Jeffrey Dean Morgan back on tv.
Things I wish for: Fringe to keep getting better. Chuck, The Middleman and Life to somehow make it to another season. Supernatural to get a season five. NCIS to continue to be the number one show. House to somehow lose the new group and go back to the old group and for the show to climb back in the ratings. For new shows coming out – Dollhouse, Kings, Castle to be good and stay on the air. The Big Bang Theory to have more hilarious things like Klingon Boggle.
One big wish I have is for TV honchos and ad agencies to figure out how to record tv viewing and actually accommodate viewers where they watch. I for one (I am 53 and outside targeted demos) only like to watch tv on my computer. The only show I watch live on a tv – but delayed by 15 minutes on my DVR to avoid commercials – is Chuck. Everything else is Tivo transfered or on Hulu or Youtube. I would enjoy tv much more and would watch many more commercials (and shows actually) if everything was on something like Hulu. There are so many commercials on broadcast tv that you could get up and make dinner for one block – and I am sure many people do ignore them or DVR through them. A more assured and controlled way to get eyes on an advertiser is to have the short breaks on a network sponsored computer site. Why not distribute it yourself rather than have people DVR or torrent the show. I realize not all viewers have the access to streaming video but that is the way many young people watch ( my 20, 18, 16 year old children) and is the way of the future. I hope that someone figures it out – or a website (hint) takes a reader poll on how they watch tv to get a sense of how viewing impacts numbers.
maren:
Yes, more Middleman, please! I really enjoyed that show and am sad that it’s not likely to get picked up. The producer’s blog (themiddleblog.livejournal.com) indicates they are trying to cut a deal to distribute a DVD of their 12 episodes, and I guess the suggestion is that the DVD sales might drive a second season. ABC Family was the wrong network for it.
There are frankly too many cable channels out there. The search costs for consumers to find quality TV programming is getting too high. If a great show airs on BBC America or ABC Family or SCIFI or whatnot, so few people are familiar with those networks that nobody knows the show is on and nobody catches it… This problem is really pronounced on iTunes and other file sharing networks. Something like 80% of all songs on iTunes have never been purchased even once, and less than 10% of the songs have been purchased more than 100 times (if I remember the study right). There are simply too many choices.
I think NBC is realizing this problem on their main network; without major “anchors” drawing eyeballs to their network, they can’t effectively promote their own shows. CBS, meanwhile, appears to be dominating. An interesting development!
Too much crap on TV. I prefer using the digital tuner in my TV (analog cable) to see what my neighbors are watching on COMCAST On Demand. The only annoying thing is sometimes they all of sudden stop watching and the screen goes black. Or some idiot keeps watching the same fight scene in The Dark Knight and rewinds it 4 or 5 times in a row – it like being stuck inside someones demon possessed TIVO. Then the other day there was some movie where one woman is on top of another woman punching her repeatedly, gets up, runs, trips and goes face first into a dirty pool; along with some guy with a chainsaw attacking a piano and a guy defending himself with a piece of furniture – they rewinded and watched this at least 10 times! One channel Barney is on, next channel someone is watching low quality lesbian porn or one of the lastest movies or an episode of CSI. For some reason someone watches THE ABYSS on a regular basis.
The American Film Institute put Life on its list of the Top 10 shows of 2008 along with the likes of Mad Men, The Wire, John Adams and The Shield. The only other network shows on the list were Lost and The Office.
I think CBS will drop ‘Old Christine’ and ABC will get it.
out of the three sitcoms for cbs old christine is by far the funniest out of the three and worst week is just horrible i find myself forgetting its suppose to be funny thats why i losing up to 5 million two and a half men viewers. while when christine was there on monday it averaged around 12 million viewers coming in the top twenty for each week.
I don’t even want to get on nbc what the heck were they thinking putting life with law and order now with a night of weak lead ins ratings seem to be suffering if nbc cancels it i’ll be angry considering its one season from tying the 20 year drama mark with gunsmoke.
After Frasier and Friends went off the air nbc has just fell so far that the only shows left to watch are
Law and Order
Law and Order: SVU
Heroes
Chuck
E.R.
30 Rock
and Medium
I miss the good old days when nbc was the #1 network
I’m missing “The Middleman” badly. I do appreciate the chance that ABC Family took on it, but if only they’d advertised it better. Fingers crossed for that DVD.