It was can Elway finally win one and can Green bay win a second in a row.

Now if Carolina and Baltimore can lose, I’ll be one happy camper

last year Fox had the late game that Sunday — I’m not sure when it started, but it ran almost to 8pm and the 7p-8p hour averaged over 37 million in the overnights (Giants vs. Cowboys).

TV households have grown since then which makes the Dallas/Buffalo numbers (as well as Dallas/Steelers) from the 1990s all the more impressive. The table in the link in my comment above tells a tale where much like baseball and the world series, nationwide appeal of the teams in the Super Bowl is much more important than the size of the local markets of the teams playing. Generally, local market size and nationwide appeal correlate well. But the Cowboys are a much, much larger nationwide draw than the Eagles even though Dallas is the 5th largest local market and Philadelphia is the fourth.

CBS is surely already crossing its fingers for a Dallas vs. Pittsburgh Steelers match for next year. And Pittsburgh is the #23 market (Indianapolis #25). Here is the list of the 210 largest markets this year according to Nielsen.

Both Chicago (#3) and Dallas (#5) absences really hurt the NFC slate. It would seem that both of those teams have broader nationwide appeal than the Giants, even though NY is the #1 market, let alone Philly. Of course, the NFL has rocked on as the dominant television spectacle that it is while being completely absent from the #2 market (LA) for years.

My guess is that ratings for this year’s Super Bowl are more dependent on Pittsburgh or Indy getting in than who the NFC representative is. Pittsburgh seems to have more national appeal, though I think the Manning vs. Manning angle would generate a lot of interest should it come to pass. Though I’m not sold on Tennessee being ready, based on the regular season, a Carolina vs. Tennessee contest is definitely a very real possibility and one that might draw fewer than 85 million.

The speculation is of course completely worthless at this point, but fun nonetheless!

1. Colts/Eagles
2. Steelers/Eagles
3. Chargers/Eagles
4. Dolphins/Eagles
5. Titans/Eagles
4.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/01/21/super-bowl-is-it-really-still-super/2430

Alex, I completely agree that last year was story driven — and although you couldn’t see a KC Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills matchup in the super bowl (both in the same conference), if the Ravens were going for 19-0 vs. the Panthers, the story would still drive the numbers. But the Ravens aren’t undefeated so a Ravens/Panthers matchup would be a measurable swing from last year’s 97.4 million, but would it be far off the years prior to last year?

Because of national holiday saturation, Super Bowl ratings seem fairly flat. But the last time NBC had the Super Bowl (Jan 25, 1998) a Green Bay/Denver contest did 90 million. The next year the Atlanta/Denver contest on Fox averaged 83.7 million. I’d call that a big year to year swing that wasn’t story driven, but perhaps we have different opinions about “big”.

im too lazy to look this up but maybe there is an event going on at giants stadium or whatever field carolina plays in that locks them into the timeslots.

thats what happened to the falcons/cardinals, with the fiesta bowl set for monday, nbc had to take the less marketable of the two nfc matchups so there are more than 24 hours between the cardinals game and the college game.

JP, if a Carolina vs. Tennessee matchup drew 20% less than Giants/Colts or Giants/Steelers you’d still be correct, and that would be the only consolation NBC had.

Alex, great point about Super Bowl ratings mattering more for promotion and setting *next year’s* pricing, though it still also heavily impacts NBC’s season-to-date numbers.

That’d be hell for the NFL!