Last summer, I asked our readers to pick the fall season's biggest new hit and biggest new flop. The wisdom of the crowds did OK, choosing Fringe as the biggest hit (it was the #2 new show of the fall) and choosing The Mentalist as hit #3 (it was the biggest success of the fall), but Knight Rider at #4 was a miss. On the flop side, the crowd nailed The Ex-List, one of the earliest shows to be cancelled, but completely missed the debacle that was the CW's Sunday night.
I thought we'd do the same thing for the new mid-season shows (some have already begun). Here are my picks.
Biggest Hit: Lie To Me. It follows American Idol. If it's half decent, it could go large.
Biggest Flop: Since Momma's Boys and Game Show in My Head already shows signs of tanking, picking them would be too easy. I'll go with the next easiest thing, picking the CW's 13 - Fear is Real. It doesn't match CW's target demo, and is up against Lost and Idol.
Here is a recently updated mid-season broadcast schedule here.
What are your picks? And why?
[poll id="16"][poll id="17"]
Well, while 13 – Fear is Real will most certainly flop, it’ll take numbers in the sub million range to be considered a BIG flop for CW. So I don’t think it’ll be considered the biggest flop of mid season. So I’m going with Dollhouse.
I don’t see any shows being a hit. Dollhouse will probably be the most beloved of the canceled shows, however.
I’m with Julia — Dollhouse all the way. I’m not sure the wisdom of the crowds was wrong in not picking up the CW Sunday night shows, it just wasn’t interested enough in it to care. Even Nielsen “discounts” the CW these days:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6623130.html
Also, Fear is Real is fully intended as a limited run from the get go (I can’t remember if it is 4 or 8 episodes, but once the next cycle of ANTM is upon us, it’s it will be done — so I’m not sure it is fair to compare to a show like Lie to Me.
Similarly, Momma’s Boys is just a January show. If it had done very well, that might not have been the case, but it also was intended as a limited run.
Sorry for the post spam, but I originally posted this rant on the referenced article that I didn’t realize I had click throughed to.
I wish that I could vote Superstars of Dance for biggest flop, repeatedly.
The FCC should levy millions of dollars worth of fines on NBC for The Superstars of Dance. It’s as if t.v. executives have taken a time machine back to the twenties to coopt their ideas of having a celebration extravaganza to show us Americans all dem weird foreign cultures. They have dancers from India, South Africa, China, Ireland, Russia and Argentina, but apparently they are completely isolated from the current world dance standards, so all they do are the most stereotypical “cultural” dances possible. The Indian dancers have the most ridiculously over the top Bollywood ensembles I have ever seen. The Chinese judge is dressed like a Buddhist monk to match to match the Russian judge next to him wearing a bright blue kosovorotka. All the celtic dancers appears to be background dancers from Riverdance and most egregious of all, apparently the only dancers from South Africa are Zulu dancers, who even when competing on an American t.v. game show still dress in their traditional garb.
Also, from what bits and pieces I’ve seen so far, all of the American, British, Irish, Russian and Australian dancers are white, while all South African dancers are black. There was a dancer born and raised in the U.S., but of Indian descent and they have her competing as an “Indian Dancer”. As a fan of So You Think You Can Dance I hoped that this show would be an opportunity to collect the best dancers in the world and have them compete and demonstrate their dancing chops as individuals, beyond borders. But instead this garbage has been nothing more than NBC playing “let’s see how many national stereotypes we can exploit and reinforce.” The dancers aren’t individuals, they’re only conduits for the stereotypes that NBC wishes to feed the viewer. I weep that this show has even made it onto air. NBC honestly deserves to have its must-carry privileges revoked – their new programming philosophy is to make as many cheap, ###### reality shows as possible and hope that enough people randomly leave their t.v.s on at night to make them show up on the Nielsen numbers. This garbage should not be broadcast on the public air waves.
I predicted Ex-list. I saw a 1 sentence summary on epguides.com and knew it was going to be a flop.
I removed the link from the excerpt, I can see how clicking on it there would be wacky.
I’d agree that on a relative basis (i.e. vs. expectations early in its development process) Dollhouse is my pick to be the biggest flop too.
I don’t see Dollhouse doing well AT ALL. It’s on a bad night for Fox, the concept doesn’t seem all that clear and quickly explanatory, and I also feel like some people who might have otherwise watched will shy away because they expect the show to fail. Self-fulfilling prophecy, in a way. When’s the last time Fox got decent numbers on Friday anyway? And not all the shows they’ve had there in recent years have been bad, either.
No one has yet commented on why they think Dollhouse will be a hit, although it’s running second in that poll at the moment.
I picked Lie to Me as biggest hit. Great timeslot, concept is pretty quick and easy to grasp, good early buzz, Tim Roth is in it.
Game Show in My Head?!? Never even heard of that one before.
If “hit” is defined by network expectation for ratings, I think “Game Show In My Head” shall be the biggest flop. CBS seems to know this already – notice how it’s already being burned off by airing during football playoffs. I don’t give “Cupid” much of a chance either – the concept didn’t work 10 years ago, and has your average TV viewer (Nielsen family) changed habits all that much?
I agree with the results that “Lie to Me” will be the biggest midseason hit. As for “Dollhouse,” it’s a tricky call. If FOX has high expectations, it may very well be doomed. If FOX intends on giving it time to gain some footing, it may be fine. I honestly don’t know how to predict that one. “Harper’s Island” may have a shot at success too; however, CBS has pretty high ratings expectations. HI will need to be pretty monstrous, Nielsen-wise, to be considered a CBS hit.
And BTW Robert, the article you linked is not the only killshot at the CW recently. Sometime in the last month or so, TV Guide Print Edition has dropped the CW from its listings. It’s still in the online listings. I have no idea why this happened. Any chance you know anyone who knows why it was dropped? If it’s purely on ratings, why does the print edition still carry ION?
I’m hoping NBC’s Kings is going to be huge. The premise of the show sounds original and very unique.
I predict Dollhouse will be the biggest flop. Joss Whedon, FOX, Friday night. Fail.
4 WORDS!-
CUPID
CASTLE
THE UNUSUALS!
ABCFanatic, those will be flops or hits?
The biggest hits will still be the returning series – Lost & 24 – but in terms of new series, it’s gotta be Lie To Me, the show FOX is most surely grooming as a supplement to the powerhouse-drama of House (seeing as how Fringe hasnt gone as gangbusters as many would have predicted)
Dollhouse will fail in the simple premiere that the concept is too confusing for the average viewer…i mean, when you get people who are still confused over how the Idol process works, then….
Kings sounds quite interesting, and the previews look top-notch – hopefully it can do a Heroes and jump right out of the blocks with some surprisingly strong numbers
Then again, you can’t hope for too much rating-wise from a NBC program at 10/9c on a Sunday
Sorry i take back that Sunday comment about Kings!
Dollhouse doesn’t stand a chance. Fox promoted it back in the early fall, but then (according to reports) the entire show disintegrated, with Whedon having to re-shoot the entire pilot, take a three week “break” from filming, and having to make extensive revisions to the scripts. Now, rather than a January premiere as planned, it’s premiereing in February on Friday nights. Whedon will get some Buffy and Firefly fans to tune in, but if this show is as awful as it appears to be, he may alienate even those fans.
Why do so many people think Lie To Me is going to do well? That show also strikes me as having a dubious premise. “A-hah! The suspect wiggled his eyebrow funny. That’s proof he’s lying, but see, when he scratched his left elbow while lying, it is proof that he has unresolved psychological trauma from his childhood. Put two and two together, and it’s obvious he killed his wife and stuffed her body……in his old toy box!”
13- Fear is Fake will be a bigger flop than In Harms Way. Dollhouse will be the most notable flop as CW is an imploding network and most people dont even bother with it any more. Dollhouse fans will of course blame TSCC for its demise along with the time slot. TSCC fans will blame lack of a lead in and time slot for its demise. Both fan groups will then beat each other to a pulp.
Biggest hit? Lie to Me – possibly or it could be a huge flop.
I’m with Outlander. Lie to me sounds like another Psych clone. Just because Tim Roth is the lead it doesn’t meen that it will work.
The Unusuals have a great cast and it’s very promising, but it has a terrible time slot up against L&O and CSI:NY. I hope ABC will take into account NBC’s surrender of 10 PM next fall.
Tom,
but the last “Pysch Clone” The Mentalist (and I say that with quotes because it really isn’t), turned into a “cyclone” ratings hit.
The test for Fox, however, is to deliver its first scripted hit since the premiere of Prison Break in Fall 2005.
Going with Lie to Me as the biggest hit is frankly cheating – Fox is continuing to let House’s numbers suffer at 8pm to give Lie a cozy AI connection; they clearly expect it to do well. I’d like (but do not necessarily expect) Kings to do well – it has the ER timeslot and is the only new show NBC produced this year that is well regarded by outsiders. I expect it to premiere well and then fade rapidly.
Defining flops is also difficult – half the options are defacto canceled shows (Head/Boys/Fear/Dance/Harper/Doll). Expectations also fall into this: is it fair to call Harper’s the biggest flop when it will garner the worst ratings for the year on that network (CBS), even if it will get more viewers than half the other shows on that list?
IMO, the ratings most worth keeping an eye on are ABC shows, namely Castle & The Unusuals. I don’t expect Unusuals to do well – The Job didn’t do well years ago, and the minor structural changes (female lead) aren’t enough to break it out of the cable programming where it belongs (see Rescue Me). Castle is also tough to judge – ABC’s Friday Women’s Murder Club died an early death last year, but the Dancing tie-in and male family lead should give it a bigger (albeit older) audience than Murder Club garnered.
I admit for biggest flop I picked Momma’s Boys. I cheated I know.
I picked Kings for biggest hit, not because I think it well get the most viewers or fantastic demos, but I think it could have a big positive impact on NBC.
If any other show turns out to be a hit, it won’t matter as much. Even a small hit on NBC could make a big difference.
Bah, perhaps I should rename myself to Tom #6, given how many of us there are. One minor correction: I think Harper will get the worst _scripted_ ratings on CBS this year.
And Andrea, “The test for Fox, however, is to deliver its first scripted hit since the premiere of Prison Break in Fall 2005.” You don’t consider Fringe a hit? Or are you limiting this to shows produced by Fox?