The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after January 14, 2009 click here to see the latest list.
A new year brings a new format to our Renew/Cancel Index posts. We decided that while it might have been unique to see all the scripted broadcast shows in a single list, the reality is that in renewal or cancellation decisions Chuck is not competing against The New Adventures of Old Christine, but only against other NBC shows. So, we've decided to split the previous scripted show list into 5 lists, one for each English broadcast network. We think that's a clearer way to look at show renewal or cancellation prospects and is likely more accessible to more people.
I skipped posting a week during the holidays, but very little has fundamentally changed since mid-December. New episodes began reappearing on Sunday, January 4, and then for only some shows. Others are waiting until later in the month. Still, there has been little movement over the past few weeks, but things will soon start heating up again with the new mid-season show introductions.
In the second phase of our new format, I've also broken out each of the network lists into separate posts to focus the discussions on them. To see the prospects for the scripted shows for each network click on the links below:
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
This is the same "all network" list that I've always posted. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, it's not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,110 | 0.32 | cancelled |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD | CBS | 1,308 | 3,800 | 0.34 | |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P | CBS | 1,442 | 3,800 | 0.38 | |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,590 | 0.40 | |
| ABC SAT MOVIE OF THE WEEK | ABC | 1,472 | 3,570 | 0.41 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,722 | 3,590 | 0.48 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,791 | 3,530 | 0.51 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,827 | 3,570 | 0.51 | |
| Dateline FRI | NBC | 1,973 | 3,590 | 0.55 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,091 | 3,800 | 0.55 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,983 | 3,530 | 0.56 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,018 | 3,570 | 0.57 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 3,570 | 0.57 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,141 | 3,530 | 0.61 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 3,570 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,530 | 0.62 | |
| MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD | CBS | 2,514 | 3,800 | 0.66 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,419 | 3,530 | 0.69 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,512 | 3,590 | 0.70 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,488 | 3,530 | 0.70 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,524 | 3,570 | 0.71 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,607 | 3,590 | 0.73 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,840 | 3,570 | 0.80 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,854 | 3,530 | 0.81 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,952 | 3,570 | 0.83 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 988 | 1,110 | 0.89 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,572 | 3,570 | 1.00 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,180 | 3,800 | 1.10 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,211 | 3,800 | 1.11 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,260 | 3,590 | 1.19 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,329 | 3,590 | 1.21 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,679 | 3,570 | 1.31 | |
| CBS NFL REG POST GUN | CBS | 5,350 | 3,800 | 1.41 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,543 | 3,800 | 1.46 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,369 | 3,570 | 1.50 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,578 | 3,590 | 1.55 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,789 | 3,570 | 1.62 | |
| OT, THE | FOX | 5,772 | 3,530 | 1.64 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2,564 | 1,110 | 2.31 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,533 | 3,590 | 2.38 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Yes, the numbers are bad for TSCC but its index rating has been climbing (slowly) since Dec 9. Hope to see the trend continue.
Dec 3 .74
Dec 9 .74
Dec 16 .75
Dec 23 .76
Jan 7 .77
First Comment!!!
Anyways, I’m just glad that Chuck is still performing well enough to stay out of the cancellation zone. I am sad about Terminator; I’m surprised that it didn’t become a bigger hit.
However, for the most part the shows that are looking certain death in the eye deserve to go: Gary Unmarried, The Unit, Law & Order, Kath and Kim, and Prison Break. BLECH!!!
Was Crusoe officially pulled from the schedule (canceled) or just not renewed beyond 13 eps?
Andrea, it was sent to Saturday to finish its run. It’s more accurately labeled “finished”. I will change it.
I like the divided list, it’s very clear and easy to process.
I have to agree, the new format is really great.
if Jericho hadn’t been cancelled I would’ve come up with the separate list per network idea much sooner!
SUPERNATURAL has better ratings that Gossip Girl, One Tree Hill and 90210. Even the repeat viewings get hire ratings. I find it hard to believe that it is more likely to be canceled than all of those shows (even with CW’s track record of mistreatment of this show).
Love the format as well. So much easier to read.
Mb, Supernatural is NOT likely to be cancelled, but our list ranks based on 18-49 averages only, not total viewers. See all the explanations at the bottom of the post for more info.
so guys, do you think that abc will continue scrubs with a new cast? How good would the show have to do in order for that to happen?
i think christine is safe
One of the advantages of split lists is that it shows each network’s identity a lot clearer… And woe woe, does NBC have a crisis of identity or what… It doesn’t have *any* scripted 1 hour series with a positive trend… I’m still hoping for Kings though…
Thank you for this list, because as of now it eases my anxiety about Chuck. I’m glad to see that it is looking positive for the return next year, because quite frankly, it is an amazing show that would be talent and potential wasted if canceled. It has a little bit of everything for everyone, and NBC would be foolish to drop it. I think it just needs to be discovered by more, because it is not an issue of quality, but more an issue of advertising and getting it out there. Thanks for the updates.
Mr. Seidman,
What does Jericho cancellation have to do with this list processing by network? Not sure I get that part.
This list is very interesting divided by network. I like the footnotes too.
Clutz, he’s joking. If only Jericho hadn’t been canceled the whole world would be better.
Clutz, Julia is correct. to stay on topic, I really think the index doesn’t apply to the Wednesday comedy block as it does typically. The unanswered question is whether CBS will stick with the 8pm Wednesday experiment. If it does, I can’t envision it would cancel both Christine and Gary Unmarried and start afresh. If it doesn’t, Worst Week has no renewal advantage over either Christine or Gary Unmarried despite its better ratings due to the Monday timeslot.
Thanks Robert and Julia. Sometimes it’s hard to “read” jokes as such.
And Julia – I don’t know about the whole world, by my own TV world would be better if Jericho hadn’t been canceled. It’s well-written, well-acted, and based on issues topics that are a little unnerving in light of current world events. I miss that!
Back on topic I go – I see what you mean about the Wednesday experiment. If a second comedy block is what CBS is going for, they may have some patience to get the block solidified. I’m also wondering if “The Unit” will stay put, for no other reason that “what else do we throw there during football season?” Speaking of CBS comedies, Jim Parsons (Sheldon, BBT)deserves serious Emmy consideration. The only time I ever tune to CBS is to catch BBT here and there, and that’s entirely because Sheldon Cooper is the funniest character in years!
According to Nielsen Media Research (via December 29th issue of TV Guide) Chuck’s audience this season was tied for third for the highest median income ($68,000) among all prime-time shows only behind The Office ($78,000) and 30 Rock ($73,000). In case you are wondering, the King of the Hill has the lowest median income audience ($38,000) of any prime-time show.
CBS does not need to cancel anything. Until the other networks can prove they can schedule something that’s better than what CBS is offering, all of their remaining shows are safe.