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It's A New Year, But Likely Not a Happy One for Life, Knight Rider, The Unit, Kath & Kim, Terminator likely to be cancelled

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January 7th, 2009

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after January 14, 2009 click here to see the latest list.

A new year brings a new format to our Renew/Cancel Index posts. We decided that while it might have been unique to see all the scripted broadcast shows in a single list, the reality is that in renewal or cancellation decisions Chuck is not competing against The New Adventures of Old Christine, but only against other NBC shows. So, we've decided to split the previous scripted show list into 5 lists, one for each English broadcast network. We think that's a clearer way to look at show renewal or cancellation prospects and is likely more accessible to more people.

I skipped posting a week during the holidays, but very little has fundamentally changed since mid-December. New episodes began reappearing on Sunday, January 4, and then for only some shows. Others are waiting until later in the month. Still, there has been little movement over the past few weeks, but things will soon start heating up again with the new mid-season show introductions.

In the second phase of our new format, I've also broken out each of the network lists into separate posts to focus the discussions on them. To see the prospects for the scripted shows for each network click on the links below:

ABC Shows

CBS Shows

CW Shows

Fox Shows

NBC Shows

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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.

This is the same "all network" list that I've always posted. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, it's not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists.


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
IN HARM'S WAY CW 355 1,110 0.32 cancelled
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS 1,308 3,800 0.34  
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS 1,442 3,800 0.38  
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1,453 3,590 0.40  
ABC SAT MOVIE OF THE WEEK ABC 1,472 3,570 0.41  
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC 1,722 3,590 0.48  
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 1,791 3,530 0.51  
WIFE SWAP ABC 1,827 3,570 0.51  
Dateline FRI NBC 1,973 3,590 0.55  
48 Hours Mystery CBS 2,091 3,800 0.55  
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 1,983 3,530 0.56  
Supernanny ABC 2,018 3,570 0.57  
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 2,029 3,570 0.57  
COPS FOX 2,141 3,530 0.61  
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 2,175 3,570 0.61 cancelled
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX 2,184 3,530 0.62  
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS 2,514 3,800 0.66  
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 2,419 3,530 0.69  
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2,512 3,590 0.70  
COPS 2 FOX 2,488 3,530 0.70  
20/20-FRI ABC 2,524 3,570 0.71  
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC 2,607 3,590 0.73  
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC 2,840 3,570 0.80  
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 2,854 3,530 0.81  
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2,952 3,570 0.83  
STYLISTA CW 988 1,110 0.89  
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 3,572 3,570 1.00  
Amazing Race 13 CBS 4,180 3,800 1.10  
60 Minutes CBS 4,211 3,800 1.11  
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4,260 3,590 1.19  
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 4,329 3,590 1.21  
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 4,679 3,570 1.31  
CBS NFL REG POST GUN CBS 5,350 3,800 1.41  
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 5,543 3,800 1.46  
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 5,369 3,570 1.50  
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 5,578 3,590 1.55  
Dancing with the Stars ABC 5,789 3,570 1.62  
OT, THE FOX 5,772 3,530 1.64  
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 2,564 1,110 2.31  
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 8,533 3,590 2.38  

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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