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CW's Privileged Looks Safe, But Is It?

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January 10th, 2009

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.

The disaster of the CW's deal to lease Sunday night to MRC Capital was complete. Terrible ratings, reports of non-payment by MRC and an early cancellation of the deal in November. With the MRC shows gone, the rest of the CW lineup might all survive until next season, but because of Sunday's drag on the network average, Privileged's prospects look better than they actually are. I think it's marginal that it gets renewed.

I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm leaning towards renewal for them.

While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.


CW SHOWS Net  STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
EASY MONEY CW  288  1,110 0.26 cancelled
VALENTINE CW  345  1,110 0.31 cancelled
EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS CW  860  1,110 0.77  
THE GAME CW  953  1,110 0.86  
PRIVILEGED CW  984  1,110 0.89  
Supernatural CW  1,656  1,110 1.49  
90210 CW  1,714  1,110 1.54  
One Tree Hill CW  1,809  1,110 1.63  
Gossip Girl CW  1,817  1,110 1.64  
Smallville CW  1,968  1,110 1.77  

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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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