This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
While 'Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a cheap deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
That shouldn't provide any hope for the fans of Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles or Prison Break. The former's move to Friday is unlikely to save it, and the latter's days also seem numbered.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| FOX SHOWS | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,530 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| 'TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,530 | 0.67 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,726 | 3,530 | 0.77 | |
| PRISON BREAK (1) | FOX | 2,988 | 3,530 | 0.85 | final season |
| American Dad | FOX | 3,772 | 3,530 | 1.07 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 3,944 | 3,530 | 1.12 | not renewed |
| Bones | FOX | 4,200 | 3,530 | 1.19 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,367 | 3,530 | 1.24 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 4,896 | 3,530 | 1.39 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 4,944 | 3,530 | 1.40 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,059 | 3,530 | 1.72 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
(1) Prison Break is in its final season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I wonder if they’ll even bother airing any of these super cheap episodes of Til Death. Maybe they’ll use them for summer programming.
Fox aired double episodes of Til Death twice in October before pulling it from the line up entirely after 7 total episodes this season. They presumably still have 15 more episodes to air from this season’s order. Pushing them off to summer doesn’t sound like a bad idea, since even new episodes of Til Death do worse than repeats of House, and likely Bones.
http://epguides.com/TilDeath/
Why would they buy them if they had no intention of airing them? They’re obviously profitable or they wouldn’t have bothered.
I do have a question. How has TSCC increased one point each week for the past few weeks when there’s been no new episodes (of any FOX show really).
Rachel, FOX’s average has been decreasing (likely because of all the repeats) so it makes everything look better in comparison.
I see.
Til Death may be doing terribly, but if they profit even slightly, it’s worth it for FOX. They pay SO LITTLE for it and even though they don’t make so much, they must make something.
I happen to like Til Death show and watch it every time it airs.
I hope you are wrong about Terminator. I know a lot of people who watch it and will be more than annoyed over this if it is cancelled. TV execs really hate SciFi.
Well Kay, make sure you tell all your friends to faithfully tune in each Friday when it comes back, and to get others to do the same! (preferably those with Nielsen boxes
I think PB is winding up the series this season any way. As much as I will miss it when it’s gone, I hope Fox do the 8 final episodes rather than just 6 and air them. And when the season comes out on DVD I hope the have a lot on bonus footage unlike past seasons.
We have to be somewhat hopeful for TSCC because:
(1) There are no new scifi shows on SCIFI on Fridays that will compete against it (BSG airs at 10pm)
(2) CBS obviously is able to get winning ratings on Friday nights, so that means someone in the 18-49 demo is willing to stay home and watch TV if the show is good enough.
(3) Maybe morbid curiosity will inspire people to tune in for the horrendous disaster (erm, I mean, great new series) that is Dollhouse, and those viewers will suddenly discover the cheesy goodness that is Summer Glau beating on people.
How many shows does Til Death have out there presently? 50?
There is no greater torture than sitting through an entire episode of Til Death. I loved it the first season, but now it is like every episode is the same…Joy and Eddie have an an asnine argument…Eddie’s ego gets bruised so he is going to prove her wrong…he goes off and does something stupid and insensative and everybody hates them both. It is BORING!
The Woodcocks could disappear from the planet and I would never miss them.
Brad Garrett is hilarious…Joley Fisher is also a very funny lady, but IMO they just aren’t funy together.
Glad to see Bones in green on your list! And now that it’s getting such solid replay on TNT it seems like it has a lock on being renewed! Can’t wait to start watching new episodes this Thursday (1/15).
BIG DADDY, epguides.com says there have been 44 aired, 15 from this season are unaired. Add in the 22 just ordered for next season and at the end of 2009-10 there will have been 81. While 100 episodes is always talked about as the holy grail for syndication, with the lack of sitcoms in recent years, perhaps 81 is new 100!
Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!…Skynet infected the ratings…why those terminator robots!
I think FOX is going to Kill Bones and House …by moving them toooo often…
Bones on it’s new night Tues…
Bones on it’s new night Wed
bones now on its new night this thursday…
I mean Come -on – pick a night and leave it !!!!
My take is that ‘Til Death is a spare tire picked up at the junk yard or whatever widget you have in a “In Case of Emergency, Break Glass” case. It’s so cheap (and presumably the network is still making good money on their reality shows with Idol just now coming online), they can afford to pocket a season and a half to whip out in case another show tanks or, god forbid, the actor’s union goes on strike. They’ve got programming stockpiled for a rainy day. Fox is having a good year with Fringe and maybe they’ll get lightning to strike twice with Lie to Me and maybe even Dollhouse. Remember 2 seasons ago, they totally tanked with Justice and Vanished and were scrambling to fill in the holes. Twice in recent history (Drew Carey and now According to Jim), ABC has miraculously found “extra” episodes of shows thought to be long dead to fill holes in the schedule.
I know, RG! They want to keep the truth hidden from us! We should form our own resistance.
Just read that Prison break is cancelled.
http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/01/prison-break-final-season-.html