This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
After cancelling 4 shows this fall, it looks like that except for Jim, all the remaining ABC scripted shows look in good shape to return for the 2009-10 season.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| ABC SHOWS | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,570 | 0.61 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,263 | 3,570 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,570 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,570 | 0.69 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,570 | 0.71 | cancelled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,570 | 0.80 | finished |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,264 | 3,570 | 0.91 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,526 | 3,570 | 0.99 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,570 | 1.01 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,626 | 3,570 | 1.02 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,792 | 3,570 | 1.34 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 7,177 | 3,570 | 2.01 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,821 | 3,570 | 2.19 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I know scrubs has only been on for one week, but what do you think its chances are?
Jon, a week’s worth of ratings is way to early to tell. Plus, the move from NBC>ABC was unusual enough, we really don’t know what other things were part of the deal with the Scrubs producers.
Too bad about Eli Stone. I really liked that show. Not too many I look forward to seeing and that was one. It was put together very well.
I doubt that ‘Scrubs’ will be back. Creator Bill Lawrence and star Zach Braff have both said that this is their final season, but Lawrence has said that ABC might spin it off. Additionally, ABC might not want to upset Lawrence, who is writing a single-camera sitcom pilot starring Courtenay Cox.
I’m so happy that ABC is failing.Woo Hoo!!!
ATJ should’ve died a long time ago. The show is just terrible.
Has ABC OFFICIALLY cancelled Eli Stone, like in…sets torn down, actors released from contracts, etc? Any word on when, if, NEVER, ABC will air the unaired episodes? I suppose I should be happy ABC is failing as well, but I can’t drink that poison. Homeland Security USA?????????????????????????? The network seals it’s fate with another horrible snoozer. Good to know our TSA agents are intercepting deep fried bats from Cambodia! Why wasn’t Eli given a chance in the 8 p.m. time slot???? Whatevah!
Well, ABC is not exactly failling but to please the fans, they bring back 3 bubble shows (Eli, PD and DSM) and they all failed badly.
Cool,
Eli Stone was NOT given a fair chance AT ALL! For one the ludicrous time slot and I could go on and on. It’s obvious you aren’t a fan of the show so…enjoy the zzzzzzzzz reality shows.
I think that Samantha Who and Ugly Betty are FAR from shoo ins for next season. Life on Mars is unlikely to return unless is performs well after Lost. This is where the simple analysis of the raw numbers falls down.
Samantha Who and Life on Mars have performed modestly because of their lead-ins and certainly not well enough given their respective lead-ins. LoM will be gone if it doesn’t work behind Lost. SW fits well with ABC’s brand but again I think they will pick Scrubs over SW any day (especially if they can squeeze another season out somehow despite Zach Braff’s departure).
Ugly Betty has shown a very negative trend over the last two seasons going (and indeed in general) the trend has gone from very large success to now very very modest numbers that only good in relative terms (see Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies and DSM). If Castle, Cupid and The Unusuals all burst out and given PP relative solid performance after GG I think that ABC will think long and hard about renewing UB. The thing that may ultimately save it is that it is a much cheaper production now that it is based in NY. Especially given that the three new shows are probably all 9/10pm shows rather than 8pm shows.
Ugly Betty isn’t going anywhere; if ABC was worried about it, they would have shuffled it around with all their midseason moves. I wouldn’t put any money on it returning in 2010 though. Same deal with Samantha Who.
Life on Mars is far more up in the air than Bill thinks; you don’t get your back order cut if you’re a slam dunk for renewal. (And The Unusuals takes over the time slot come April.) If the numbers don’t stabilize near where they are quickly after Lost, it’s done.
If ABC decides to bring back SW? for a third season, the possibility of syndication will almost certainly bring it back for a fourth. Right now, it looks like ABC will bring it back next year, unless something unexpected happens before this year is finished. If some of the comedies ABC brings in at midseason work out, that might give SW? a good compatible show to pair it with instead of DWTS.
I just can’t see ABC canceling UB, or PP, especially now that PP will have the crossovers with GA.
Who owns the Sci-Fi channel? Is lost in syndication or is ABC the parent of Sci-FI?
BIG DADDY, NBC Universal owns SciFi.
abc without Dancing with the Stars dissapear.
abc only exists on thursdays and sundays nights. In my opinion DWTS should be moved to wednesdays and thursdays to revamp the ratings of LOSt and Grey’s anatomy. this shows are the only that could retain a good audience from dancing. any other show in monday or tuesday will fail like we saw in the past seasons.
Spring
Monday
8 PM Dancing with the Stars (Encore)
9 PM Ugly Betty
10 PM The Bachelor
Tuesday
8 PM Samantha Who?
8:30 PM Scrubs
9 PM American Inventor Season 2
10 PM Life on Mars
Wednesday
8 PM Dancing with the Stars: Dance show
10 PM Lost
Thursday
8 PM Dancing With the Stars: Results show
9 PM Grey’s Anatomy
10 PM Private Practice
Friday
8 PM Homeland Security USA (?)
8:30 PM
9 PM (?)
10 PM Primetime or 20/20 (?)
Sunday
8 PM EM: HE
9 PM Desperate Housewives
10 PM Brothers & Sisters
The three shows we would all schedule the time to eat and watch every week are cancelled. Boston Legal… we just hollered and howled… fun stuff. Pushing Daisies was incredible to watch it was so different. family in France are just now watching the first season… they love it. Eli Stone had us going. enjoyed the tension and all the characters. The musical interludes were super… So what’s left? The ones remaining I can take or leave em. Pretty tough to cut off so many good shows…. I guess we’ll up our subscription to Netflcks
TV Guide is showing Eli Stone scheduled in the 10 p.m. time slot on Tuesdays.
http://www.tvguide.com/special/winter-preview/winter-schedule.aspx
TVGuide is wrong. Eli Stone was canceled (well, ABC chose not to order any more episodes, but it’s the same thing) back in November. There has been no announcement to change that, and given its ratings, someone connected to the show would have to have some really good blackmail for it to get a renewal.
I am surprised that TVGuide would make that mistake.
Here is a better, but still not perfect mid-season grid from B&C:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/CA6619215.html
Not so fast on the *cancellation* of Eli Stone!
http://www.newsarama.com/tv/010913-Guggenheim-Stone.html