This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
The Scrubs debut on ABC was pretty good, but it fell noticeably on its second airdate. My guess is that it won't last in "Renewal Likely" territory for long.
ABC has the most new scripted shows set to enter its schedule this spring in the coming weeks and months. They should prove interesting fodder going forward for our Renew/Cancel Index.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P (1) | ABC | 2,183 | 3,540 | 0.62 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,540 | 0.64 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,540 | 0.67 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM (1) | ABC | 2,460 | 3,540 | 0.69 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,540 | 0.72 | cancelled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,540 | 0.81 | finished |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,260 | 3,540 | 0.92 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 3,435 | 3,540 | 0.97 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 3,521 | 3,540 | 0.99 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,540 | 1.01 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,626 | 3,540 | 1.02 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,661 | 3,540 | 1.03 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,679 | 3,540 | 1.32 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 7,142 | 3,540 | 2.02 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,620 | 3,540 | 2.15 |
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Indexes for the other networks:
(1) After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
But with Zach Braff and Bill Lawrence done at the end of the year anyway, wasn’t it already a foregone conclusion that this is the last season of Scrubs?
Danny, no. There was discussion (though it may have been completely unwarranted) that they could bring Scrubs back with whatever would be left of the cast. It would have been a horrible idea and I’m very glad it won’t come to that.
At least if the show ends now it will go out with it’s integrity intact; however, i was actually hoping to see where the show would go without the longtime cast and crew.
Scrubs could be brought back after this season, however without Zach Braff its highly unlikely. But you never know.
I kind of hope the show just ends after this season though, since the main star and creator are leaving. I love Scrubs and don’t want to see it turn into an AfterMASH type thing.
scrubs needs to end this season. I dont want one of the greatest comedies to gut their cast
I’m really surpried how scripted shows has ABC, very low.
I wonder how Lost will shake things up. It seems like everything that’s likely to be cancelled, has already been cancelled, but we’ll see how things go.
Bring back Boston Legal. It’s the bomb. I miss Denny Crane and Alan Shore already. I want to be back on the balcony!
Has anyone heard that ABC is benching Betty till June in favour of Samantha Who and In The Motherhood? Apparently they’re hoping that Betty’s timeslot will launch the new two comedies they have premiering.
This means that Betty is projected to air sometime in June!
Is this normal for a TV company to do or is Betty set for an imminent cancellation?
-shakes with fear-
The link for the Betty story is here,
http://ausiellofiles.ew.com/2009/01/breaking-abc-be.html
Ammer, the link is also here and there’s plenty of discussion in those comments on what this move might mean for Ugly Betty.
Glad to see Life on Mars safe. I hope in increases with LOST.
Purely speculation on my part, but I think moving Scrubs from Thursdays didn’t help it at all. It would have been a dynamite alternative to the god awful Kath and Kim, and it would’ve been in a timeslot people are used to seeing it in.
And I think having Scrubs and Grey’s Anatomy airing on the same night would’ve been good promotionally too.
DAMN I ADMIT BOSTON LEGAL WAS GETTING A BIT RAUNCHY…BUT HELL WHY NOT IT WAS MEANT FOR ADULTS..THEY WERE FUNNY AND MADE ME LAUGH AND ALWAYS ALWAYS HIT ON SOME PRESENT DAY HAPPENINGS POLITICALLY..FROM ABORTION TO THE WAR TO BARACK ETC..DAMN
Still can’t believe Eli Stone is gone. I think another network should take a flyer on it. The acting was great, the story was great. I miss being able to get home from work after third shift and watch this show on my DVR while I wind down for bed.
IT SUCKS THAT THEY SCRAPPED THIS SHOW!!!!!