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Flashpoint, Scrubs, Friday Night Lights Join Our Index, Which Might Survive?

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January 21st, 2009

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after January 28, 2009 click here to see the latest list.

After missing our data last week, the Renew/Cancel Index is back!

In the past two weeks Flashpoint, Scrubs and Friday Night Lights have joined our Index, read on to see which one has the best chance for survival!

We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.

ABC’s Scrubs Didn’t Start Badly, But Look Out Below

If CBS’s Flashpoint Can Hold Its Numbers, It’s A Keeper

Stick a Fork In CW’s Privileged, It’s Done

Don’t Expect Fox’s Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles To Say “I’ll Be Back”

NBC’s Friday Night Lights Returns, Better Hope For More DirectTV Money

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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.

This is the same "all network" list that I've always posted. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, it's not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists, but here's the data for comparison purposes.


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
IN HARM'S WAY CW 355 1,100 0.32 cancelled
Dateline SUN-7PM NBC 1,447 3,520 0.41
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1,453 3,520 0.41 off schedule
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS 1,767 3,980 0.44
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC 1,722 3,520 0.49
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS 1,959 3,980 0.49
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 1,772 3,530 0.50
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P FOX 1,804 3,530 0.51
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P FOX 1,817 3,530 0.51
48 Hours Mystery CBS 2,090 3,980 0.53
WIFE SWAP ABC 1,893 3,540 0.53
Dateline FRI NBC 1,939 3,520 0.55
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 1,963 3,530 0.56
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 2,029 3,540 0.57
Supernanny ABC 2,056 3,540 0.58
COPS FOX 2,145 3,530 0.61
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 2,175 3,540 0.61 cancelled
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS 2,515 3,980 0.63
MOMMA'S BOYS NBC 2,368 3,520 0.67
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 2,436 3,530 0.69
HOWIE DO IT 8:30 NBC 2,473 3,520 0.70
COPS 2 FOX 2,499 3,530 0.71
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2,512 3,520 0.71
20/20-FRI ABC 2,540 3,540 0.72
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC 2,607 3,520 0.74
HOWIE DO IT 8P NBC 2,608 3,520 0.74
HOMELAND SECURITY USA ABC 2,735 3,540 0.77
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC 2,794 3,540 0.79
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 2,832 3,530 0.80
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2,952 3,540 0.83
SUPERSTARS OF DANCE NBC 3,060 3,520 0.87
STYLISTA CW 988 1,100 0.90
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 3,572 3,540 1.01
PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO ABC 3,673 3,540 1.04
13 - FEAR IS REAL CW 1,144 1,100 1.04
Amazing Race 13 CBS 4,180 3,980 1.05
60 Minutes CBS 4,248 3,980 1.07
TRUE BEAUTY ABC 3,953 3,540 1.12
BACHELOR, THE ABC 4,159 3,540 1.17
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4,260 3,520 1.21
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 4,329 3,520 1.23
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 4,616 3,540 1.30
CBS NFL REG POST GUN CBS 5,405 3,980 1.36
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 5,543 3,980 1.39
Biggest Loser 7 NBC 5,143 3,520 1.46
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 5,369 3,540 1.52
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 5,578 3,520 1.58
OT, THE FOX 5,772 3,530 1.64
Dancing with the Stars ABC 5,789 3,540 1.64
CBS NFL NATL POST GUN CBS 8,433 3,980 2.12
FOX NFL SUNDAY-PST GN-NAT FOX 7,691 3,530 2.18
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 2,564 1,100 2.33
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 8,533 3,520 2.42
American Idol-TUESDAY FOX 15,483 3,530 4.39
American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX 15,573 3,530 4.41

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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