This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles returns on Friday, February 13. Could that day/date combination be a cruel joke for its hopeful fans or just a coincidence? Either way, barring a miracle, it will not be back next season.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,530 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| TIL DEATH (2) | FOX | 2,364 | 3,530 | 0.67 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,726 | 3,530 | 0.77 | |
| PRISON BREAK (1) | FOX | 2,988 | 3,530 | 0.85 | final season |
| American Dad | FOX | 3,772 | 3,530 | 1.07 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 3,944 | 3,530 | 1.12 | not renewed |
| Bones | FOX | 4,041 | 3,530 | 1.14 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,218 | 3,530 | 1.19 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 4,646 | 3,530 | 1.32 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 4,778 | 3,530 | 1.35 | |
| 24 | FOX | 5,495 | 3,530 | 1.56 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 5,866 | 3,530 | 1.66 |
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Indexes for the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
(1) Prison Break is in its final season.
(2) 'Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a cheap deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
The status of every show here is completely accurate, King of the Hill & Prison Break are both in their final seasons while Terminator will definitely be axed. Everything else should be renewed.
Terminator is my favorite show on television right now, but it’s quite clear the show wont continue. I’m disappointed, but I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the last nine episodes and hope that it has a fitting end to the story.
I have high hopes that Dollhouse will continue though.
Is it just me, or does this site have a rather anti-TSCC slant to it?
sdfsd, I’m a fan of the show, as is Robert. I just tell it like it is. I’d like to see it back. Barring a miracle, it’s not coming back.
Shouldn’t the title should read “Not Likely To Be Back” instead of “Will Not Be Back”? The current title implies that FOX has officially announced the show’s cancellation – which as of today they have not.
sdfsd, was attempting to channel the iconic Terminator line in the headline. I’ll edit to make that a bit more obvious. My editorial skills notwithstanding, it’s not coming back. Enjoy it while you can. I am.
Gee, I wonder what King of the Hill would do if it was actually promoted. It’s a shame, it’s still one of the smartest comedies. Although I did read where KotH’s viewers had the lowest median incomes.
In a recent interview BAG seems to think it will be back for a 3rd season and there ending season 2 on a massive cliffhanger but its clear its going to be axed by may! Is it true they are writting a season finale and not a series?
Massive cliffhanger? I have this to say…
1) If the show gets axed: That would really suck to end on a major cliffhanger.
2) Assuming the cliffhanger is true: Maybe they’re already working out a deal with Fox for season 3? The writers/producers of the show seem smart. I couldn’t see them honestly expecting another season unless there were some concrete plans for one.
This has gotten me intrigued…
Ah yes, the timeless act of ending your show on a cliffhanger to try to force the network to pick you up when they plan not to do so.
That always works. Er, I mean “never works.”
Reminds me of when you guys said the same thing about it getting a full season. What a great call that was…
Vader, I don’t believe we ever predicted cancellation by January for Terminator. We have been predicting cancellation by May/non-renewal for quite some time. But my memory is so bad, I could be wrong about the history of my own predictions. Please feel free to link my post where I predicted it would go away before May.
Understand that early on this year, I simply used “Cancelled” to mean non-renewal at the end of the season, not “early cancellation”.
Remember everyone, the only things certain in life are death and taxes.
i’m surprise fox allowed TSCC to last this long. I would have showed in the door about 6 episodes in.
@ Jimmy McAwesome
It’s not so simple to cancel a show, you have to think of what you’ll put in its place. The thing is, while Terminator may be doing relatively bad, it’s still probably earning a profit, and so they may as well ride it out and take their time to bring something new in, instead of quickly shoving something in it’s place.
you put in house repeats instead. Don’t have to produce anymore episodes, so productions costs are 0, pull in higher ratings and can hence charge more for the ad time.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/10/17/fox-orders-full-season-of-terminator-sarah-connor-chronicles/6439
“Given the ratings so far the announcement is surprising to me.”
Vader, my surprise was that with its results to date that the announcement came so early. It was one of the very first shows to be extended to a full season. I’d have expected a much later decision with such marginal results.
That said, it changes nothing about the prospects for next year. Divine intervention is the show’s only hope.
I was never surprised. I’ve thought since last Spring season two was all about likely receiving TSCC for very favorable $$ rates and commitments of advertising $$ for the T4 movie. This announcement, even the timing of it didn’t surprise me any. What *would* surprise me, perhaps even shock me is an announcement of season three.
I definitely don’t buy into the notion that TSCC will be back because Fox will want to take advantage of success of the movie. Barring a miracle on Friday (and the Cardinals are in the Super Bowl, it can happen) any announcement about episodes for next year would be very surprising to me.
If anything, FOX was trying to give the back nine order before the numbers fell even more.