This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
Flashpoint debuted at 9pm Friday for CBS after a string of losers for them in that slot and did pretty well. If it can hold those debut numbers (a big if), it will be a Friday keeper!
CBS's newcomer Worst Week got the best slot in CBS's lineup for a new comedy, but has barely performed above average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
I've heard directly from a lot of fans of The Unit asking about their show's prospects. Sadly, I've had to tell them they don't look good. A unlikely recovery now that Sunday Night Football is over seems like its only hope.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| THE EX-LIST* | CBS | 2,443 | 3,980 | 0.61 | cancelled |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE (1) | CBS | 2,808 | 3,980 | 0.71 | |
| FLASHPOINT* | CBS | 2,912 | 3,980 | 0.73 | |
| NUMB3RS* | CBS | 3,003 | 3,980 | 0.75 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,025 | 3,980 | 0.76 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,193 | 3,980 | 0.80 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER* | CBS | 3,419 | 3,980 | 0.86 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,515 | 3,980 | 0.88 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,557 | 3,980 | 0.89 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 3,892 | 3,980 | 0.98 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 3,905 | 3,980 | 0.98 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,547 | 3,980 | 1.14 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,693 | 3,980 | 1.18 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,741 | 3,980 | 1.19 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,829 | 3,980 | 1.21 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 4,858 | 3,980 | 1.22 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 4,968 | 3,980 | 1.25 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,118 | 3,980 | 1.29 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,251 | 3,980 | 1.57 | |
| CSI | CBS | 6,684 | 3,980 | 1.68 |
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Indexes for the other networks:
*Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
(1) CBS has tried to create a second "comedy block" this season on Wednesday by moving The New Adventures of Old Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS's worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
If CBS plans on premiering their usual 4-5 shows, they are going to have to cut some of the shows currently in the green.
I could see Without a Trace and Cold Case potentially being given the heave ho depending on how the spring shapes up, but no others. At these levels the Friday shows are safe. Did you have other shows in mind?
I think at least two of Without a Trace, Cold Case and 11th Hour are canceled in addition to The Unit. That would leave openings for the usual 3-4 new dramas.
Unless there’s a big drop for 11th Hour the next few months, I bet it comes back, and the other two are cut. Though I feel bad for Without a Trace because it had really good retention out of CSI, better than most shows, including 11th Hour, are able to do. If only CBS could stick to what worked instead of trying to find something better.
Ugh! CBS is painting itself into such a programming corner, it’s pathetic to watch, even though I’m no big fan of the network anymore. Funny how excuses are made for Flashpoint’s numbers on a Friday night, when a truly entertaining and innovative show like Swingtown never got that opportunity outside of the crappy summer schedule. Yeah, that’s what the world needs, ANOTHER crime drama. Just wonder when the advertisers will get a clue and realize they are preaching to the same audience every show. For all the bragging CBS is doing about the numbers it’s pulling, what would be really interesting is knowing how many non-crime procedural fans are now actually AVOIDING the network because of it’s two-note programming line up. Now that’s a stat I’d love to see. I’d also love to see Bravo put some cash into another season of Swingtown for the audience that doesn’t get off on random acts of violence, repetitive scripting, and decapitated bodies.
Xerxes, who cares if all the non-crime drama fans are avoiding the network if there are obviously more than enough crime drama fans to keep CBS as #1?
Worst Week & The Unit are out for sure. Week hasn’t been holding on well to its lead in and Unit has been doing only OK for the past 4 years now. If Eleventh Hour doesn’t improve it will be gone too (likely in the same way Moonlight was axed). Old Christine & Gary Unmarried however may or may not return but don’t be quick to put them on the chopping block, maybe CBS will be patient and let their much needed second night of comedy grow. For those of you who think the older skewing Without a Trace & Cold Case will be gone, not this year. Both shows are still doing pretty good and if anything CBS will want to keep them around for at least another season.
IDK, all networks have been accused of one note programming at certain points, but at least CBS does it successfully. Unless you have delusions of grandeur about Bones or Law & Order, there is no other network crime procedural doing anywhere near as good as the worst one on CBS.
Does CBS want a show that’s buzz-worthy, award-worthy and a ratings hit at the same time? I seriously doubt it’d turn it down. But their betting on shows like Jericho simply has not paid off. Besides there really wasn’t a second House or 24 to be had in the last two years.
OTOH, rumor has it the NCIS spin of will be the same old with a new location and if they are going to be the network that plans to have three CSIs, three NCISs and three Criminal Minds year after next, then one should hope they’d afford to take a greater risk with some other new programm.
get worst week outta there and put christine back to where she belongs!
CBS may actually have to scratch a few fall drama premieres, based on the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” philosophy. WAT and Flashpoint are the first series in a very long time to hold maintain the magic 10-million-viewer mark in their respective time slots. At this point, skewing toward older demos is of less significance in those particular slots, IMHO.
Cold Case and The Unit may be in mild danger. I wouldn’t be surprised to see CBS cancel The Unit. It may shuffle Cold Case a little bit too. CBS may wish to use post-football, post-60-Minutes timeslots as prime ground for premiering new dramas.
Part of this also depends on whether the next season of Flashpoint will be ready in the fall. So far it has been on a different production schedule than most US productions. If it isn’t ready until spring, that spot opens up for a trial or giving one of the other shows a 13 episode order.
I’m happy to see Flashpoint come back, even if it is on Friday Nights. It’s not the run-of-the-mill procedural, as instead of trying to determine “who killed who”, they are saving people, which puts a spin on the procedural that we don’t normally see. And with it being produced up in Canada, it’s got to be cheaper than, say, 11th Hour…
I think it’s also great to see a show debut strong enough over the summer on a temporary run to get picked up during the season.
I am enjoying worst week and gary unmarried enough to stop by cbs every week. I hope they can stick around for another season to see if the characters can take root.
Ken B, I think Gary Unmarried has a 50/50 chance of coming back, but Worst Week is a goner.
Without A Trace and Cold Case seem to go up and down on a weekly basis so the prognosis for them will probably not become clear until near the Season end.
In the current climate would it not be probable that the Networks might not be so keen to press ahead with as many new ventures as usual?
i really dont see Cold Case getting the boot. I could see Without a Trace getting the boot though. It didnt help end the 10 pm curse but I think that has more to do with the power of NCIS & The mentalist more than anything else
Bill:
Hypothetically speaking, if CBS cancels Old Christine, do you think ABC will show interest like it did last year, judging on their fall slate? I know last season they were prepared to pick it up for a full 22-episode season, but would their be any room on the schedule for it?
I know you’re not really the right person to ask, but I figured you’d have something to say on the subject.
And by the way – on your note on Old Christine you say CBS tried to open a new comedy block on Thursday nights, when it is in fact Wednesday nights.
Dave, I don’t remember ABC being interested in Christine last year, but at my age I don’t remember a lot of things. ABC picked up Scrubs to boost the episode count for syndication because the show is produced by Disney/ABC (Touchstone). Christine is produced by Warner Brothers, so there’s no motivation for ABC to help it in syndication. Could there be an incentive for the CW (half owned by Warner Brothers) to help? Theoretically, yes. But if Dawn Ostroff is still at the head of the CW, I don’t see Christine fitting into her view for the network.
Could Warner Brothers just offer CBS some ridiculously low price (ala Sony and Fox for ‘Til Death). That seems more likely.
I can’t vouch for accuracy, but around the time of the upfronts/fall schedules being announced last spring some stories did float around about ABC being interested in OC if CBS passed.
Robert, i thought u said that ABC were interested in ‘The O.C’ for a min then!
IF CBS does axe Cold Case/WAT could NBC/ABC not pick them up?