This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post click here.
Friday Night Lights returned after airing its season initially on DirectTV. The show's fans better hope that DirectTV takes out its checkbook again if they want to see it back next season, otherwise, game over!
Last week NBC execs said that many of their poorly performing shows that are either off the schedule (Lipstick Jungle) or limping to early spring exits (Knight Rider, Kath & Kim) might be back next year "depending on how the pilots go". Believe that and I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you!
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,236 | 3,520 | 0.35 | finishing Sat |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,968 | 3,520 | 0.56 | cancelled |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS* | NBC | 2,074 | 3,520 | 0.59 | |
| LIFE - WED (1) | NBC | 2,553 | 3,520 | 0.73 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,593 | 3,520 | 0.74 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,520 | 0.75 | cancelled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,031 | 3,520 | 0.86 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 3,041 | 3,520 | 0.86 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,348 | 3,520 | 0.95 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,376 | 3,520 | 0.96 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,376 | 3,520 | 1.24 | final season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,410 | 3,520 | 1.25 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,567 | 3,520 | 1.30 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,343 | 3,520 | 1.52 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,513 | 3,520 | 1.57 |
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Indexes for the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
*Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
(1) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Law & Order could return for a 20th and final season, while its highly unlikely that Knight Rider and Kath & Kim will be back.
Seeing Chuck at .95 makes me feel better, especially going into the 3D episode and the (relatively) star-studded last half of the season.
Mike, .95 will quickly turn into .91 or lower up against House. Even with the 3D episode and any stars they can muster up.
Julia, count on NBC’s overall 18-49 average to drop throughout the spring as well. Chuck’s survival will depend on how well it *relatively* weathers the spring storms. It still looks good to me.
NBC’s overall 18-49 will drop because of the absence of SNF, but won’t the Super Bowl’s numbers inflate it.
Nathan, indeed the Super Bowl will be a huge boost, but I’m going to remove its effects from the NBC average as best I can since it will completely screw up the forecasting. Just as I remove the effects of American Idol from the Fox shows by freezing the Fox average before Idol returns. Coincidentally, that took care of the Super Bowl “bump” last year too since Fox televised it.
If FNL’s numbers dont rise, or if they fall, its dead meat.
Its one of those experiments like the one CBS did with Jericho, the failure of that experiment doomed it and alot of other TV shows with Save-a-Show fan efforts. CBS’s Tassler said Moonlight wasnt given a 2nd chance because of what happened with Jericho Season 2.
The same applies to FNL, if ratings go up it might mean other shows might get a 2nd chance via the same sort of deal. Alot depends on how much money Direct TV is willing to pour into FNL and for how long.
I don’t see how NBC’s average 18-49 AVG STD can be so high with it’s viewship so low. Only 5 shows above average and they aren’t even reaching 2.0 ratio?
Is this average (3520) updated weekly or is it an historical archive value? (actual average of the above data is 3338)
Brett, the NBC average also includes unscripted shows which aren’t in this list (because our traffic has shown folks don’t care about them). In NBC’s case, their average is high because of Sunday Night Football and associated programs.
You can see the unscripted show numbers in the main post: http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/01/21/flashpoint-scrubs-friday-night-lights-join-our-index-which-might-survive/11203
So sad to see Life’s numbers so low. I’m going to miss it.
if NBC cancels both Friday night lights and chuck I’ll be very saddened. I think Chuck will survive, FNL though not so much
I just hope Life makes it!
i think kath and kim and all the doings to be a really really funny show but NBC let this one fall flat
I have to disagree Sam, from what I saw, Kath and Kim was advertised pretty heavily on NBC. It was before the Office, which isn’t as great as after, but still. Most people probably didn’t see the ads for Kath and Kim however since everything else on NBC gets such low ratings. Even Heroes
I’m praying for Chuck!
Bye, bye KR; Bye, Bye K&K (even though the latter has potential.)
Q: Being Nielsen-box challenged, how would I let NBC know in a powerful way that canceling Chuck would be an egregious error? I have considered buying NBC and guaranteeing this, but I am pretty sure they would laugh at my offer of five bucks and a Princess Leia Pez dispenser.
A: With rapier wit like that, I’m surprised you’ve had any trouble communicating to the mandarins at NBC. But relax. Per a spokesman, “We’re not canceling Chuck.”
http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/ask_the_answer_bitch/b79896_did_paris_really_snatch_30_swag_bags.html
I really hope this is true. Go Chuck!!!
Ha Nathan, like you’re going to buy NBC, like you’ve got 4 million dollars just laying around.
I love 30 Rock. I love it enough to quote it in this comment. I’m so glad it’s numbers have improved so much. I never thought i’d say this, ever, but thank you Sarah Palin.
Now Chuck just needs renewal. I see it happening. Barely. I think it’s going to be a midseason replacement and if the numbers aren’t up next year it’ll be gonzo.
Finally, I used to love The Office and My Name Is Earl, I really did, but lately, both of them can go away. They’ve gotten so, what’s the word, mediocre. I’ll be watching Bones.
what i ment is that this could of been a really funny show but its not they wasted molly shannon
My guess is that both Law and Orders return, (Office and 30 Rock are already coming back), Earle will get at least get to a 1/2 season order, FNLights will return only if Direct pays for it again, I could see (Knight Rider returning w/ Ford still sponcering it) making it back to share a spot /w Chuck and Heroes…while the season has done horrid…..While NBC’s schedule is bad they have no choice but to stick w/ their schedule and to keep it cheap, Jay Leno needs all advertising money for his 10PM launch, plus Conan relaunch, and Jimmy Fallen.
So if they keep NFL Sunday, Monday Sci-fi (Heroes and Knight Rider or Chuck or Medium), Tue. Biggest Loser/Law & Order SVU, Wed. (Life or Deal or No Deal)/Law and Order, Thur. Comedy Done Right (30 Rock/Earle/Office/New comedy), Fri: Deal or no Deal or another reality show and (Law and Order CI of Friday Night Lights)