This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post and information on other networks as well as unscripted shows, click here.
I've now moved from the "Privileged might make it" camp to the "Privileged is a goner" camp. Let the funeral dirges begin.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,100 | 0.26 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,100 | 0.31 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS* | CW | 835 | 1,100 | 0.76 | |
| THE GAME* | CW | 941 | 1,100 | 0.86 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 966 | 1,100 | 0.88 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,613 | 1,100 | 1.47 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,708 | 1,100 | 1.55 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1,802 | 1,100 | 1.64 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1,812 | 1,100 | 1.65 | |
| Smallville | CW | 1,940 | 1,100 | 1.76 |
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Indexes for the other networks:
*Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
CW’s index is so screwy. They have five shows that are well above renewal levels, five below it, but nothing that’s right around 1.00 or so. I guess the shows that are doing relatively well should be thanking whatever god they worship that CW has Sundays bringing it down. And Fridays.
CW’s veteran trio will be back as will their comedy duo. 90210 & Gossip Girl will definitely return however Privileged will be gone.
Gossip Girl better come back. It’s the best show on television
Ugh. CW completely mishandled Privileged’s marketing and now its suffering. But maybe it’s small, emotionally attached audience could save it?
“Marketing Evaluations’s Q Scores says high emotional bonding to TV shows is a better indication of future TV performance. In a recent study with its new metric, “Emotional Bonding Q scores,” a number of scripted cable dramas posted better emotional levels than broadcast TV shows among women viewers.”
ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” was the top at 148.
But a number of middle- to-lower-rated broadcast shows also scored high in emotional bonding. CW’s “Privileged” was ranked second overall with a 145 score.
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/index.cfm?fa=Articles.showArticleHomePage&art_aid=98834
Thoughts?
Charles, sounds like a consulting company trying to sell its services to me. While there may be something to the “committed viewers buy your products more” hustle, there’s absolutely nothing to it when it comes to show longevity. It’s all about “more” viewers (adults 18-49), not “committed viewers”.
that’s bad, honestly I like Privileged more than Gossip Girl and 90210. It’s fun, it’s quirky, it’s smart. I feel bad if Privileged would get canned because there’s a lot of potential for the show.
Now that is really sad.
Privileged is one of the best shows on CW right now. I liked shows like 90210 at first, but then it turned into a predictiable soap opera type show. And Gossip Girl I can’t stand to watch..
Privileged was pretty much the last thing I watched on CW. I hope it’s not whacked.
Is there any chance of the Cw folding? There ratings are awfull, The WB got way better ratings!
I love Privileged that would be stupid to removed it is such a great show
To lose Kristen Bell and now Johanna Garcia…UGH!
honestly if i’m CW I cut everything but Smallville & Supernatural. The aim for teen girls has obviously been a failure. when your best two shows are both scifi, that should be a hint.
Sad. Privileged is kinda cute and it’s not like they have a lot of heavy hitters on their roster.
CW needs to cry back to Brenda and beg for a 7th Heaven spin-off while Secret Life goes in it’s off-season in April.
Apparently someone over at the CW said their target audience is now exclusivly women 18-34. I would have loved to see those numbers for Smallville and Supernatural
melbye, that demo (women 18-34) has been the stated target of the CW for several seasons.
As for Smallville and Supernaturals ratings for women 18-34, we don’t get season to date numbers for it, but here are their numbers from Thurs 1/22.
Smallville women 18-34 rating
8:00: 1.0 rating
8:30 1.1
Supernatural W18-34 rating
9:00: 1.2
9:30 1.1
Compare that to the CW flagship Gossip Girl from 1/19: W18-34
8:00: 2.0 rating
8:30: 2.1 rating
Ah, thank you.
i really hope that privilaged does not get cannceled. Joanna Garcia is halarious and so are the girls. I do enjoy the show alot, but I know how cw/wb cancelles shows quickly and swiftly, oh well. maybe we’ll get more than 15 epi’s i wish.
I think the whole 18-34 female demo project is starting to seriously unravel right now for the CW. The top two scripted shows appear to be SUPERNATURAL and SMALLVILLE. 90210, GOSSIP GIRL, and ONE TREE HILL are slowly deteriorating in viewing numbers while SUPERNATURAL continues to grow. Look at last week where SUPERNATURAL drew 3M viewers while new episodes of 90210, GOSSIP GIRL, and ONE TREE HILL were around 2.5M.
The fact that ONE TREE HILL is starting to surpass GOSSIP GIRL is another telling sign. I know the CW was hoping for growth in that program with a spinoff in the works. Instead the show has quietly dropped below the 2.9/3.1 million viewers it had before.
SMALLVILLE meanwhile is in its last season. It’s their number 1 scripted show, and Dawn has already nixed a GREEN ARROW spin off, and is about ready to nix the MARTIAN MANHUNTER spin off. When you consider they had plans for a SUPER GIRL spin off last season, but were unsuccessful in getting fans to like the character, you have to wonder if they’re just shooting themselves in the foot. In fact you may wonder if they’re shooting themselves in the heart.
Their top critically reviewed show from last season which had mediocre ratings (but still better than PRIVILEGED) is REAPER and that show isn’t returning until what April? Will anyone care a year later?
The CW has nothing after SMALLVILLE, except SUPERNATURAL which is slowly growing and is a show they have competing in the most competitive hour on TV. Just what can the CW pair SUPERNATURAL with next season? REAPER would have been a smart choice, but they’ve treated that show poorly.
UPN had their Star Trek titles. The WB had SMALLVILLE, BUFFY, ANGEL, SEVENTH HEAVEN, and GILMORE GIRLS all getting over 4 million viewers on average. The CW has one show getting that number and it’s SMALLVILLE. The CW is also hanging their hat on GOSSIP GIRL as their defacto “staple show,” and that show is getting around 2.6M viewers right now.
This experiment needs to end before the CW is beyond repair. They need to do whatever it takes to keep SMALLVILLE around another season and greenlight the MARTIAN MANHUNTER spin off. They should also consider moving SUPERNATURAL back to Tuesdays at 9/8 central and giving it a good lead in that makes sense.
I think what the CW is finding is that by basing their network on the 18-34 female demo all they’ve done is over saturate their market with the types of shows a female in that demo might like. So instead of having a show like GOSSIP GIRL grow they’re losing viewers to PRIVILEGED, 90210, and ONE TREE HILL. The MELROSE PLACE revival is another bad decision. They should take GOSSIP GIRL and pick one of the other shows to pair with it and try and establish an identity for that demo on ONE NIGHT. Make that night mean something.
It’s possible for the CW to overtake NBC next season. I see nothing NBC has that could stop that from being a possibility with smarter marketing initiative.
@NickC:
You seem to have a decent post, but it seems to take unto account only the total viewership. While total viewers deteriorate, I’d say the 18-49 ratings are stable.
Gossip Girl, 90210, and One Tree Hill are all beating Supernatural. Smallville barely beats Gossip Girl. Since this is what advertisers seem to look at, I’d say the CW isn’t in the bad state you put it in.
You are right. The CW is overloading on teen soaps. They should have three: 90210, One Tree Hill, and Gossip Girl. They should then proceed to order sit-coms targeted to teen girls and build up a sit-com night for real. Monday night should be drama night (Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill). Tuesday should be comedy night. Wednesday night should be America’s Next Top Model (and failed reality experiments) then 90210. Thursday nights sci-fi night. Friday nights could be sit-com reruns, or not air at all. Sunday nights they could continue to air movies.
I believe this schedule would work really well for the CW. Privileged, while better than 90210, is dead ratings-wise. The CW would be insane to bring it back.
Heradite, well if what you stated were true then I’d say you’re right. You’re however wrong. SMALLVILLE and SUPERNATURAL are beating the teen soaps in the 18-49 ratings and the 18-49 in C3 since late November. They also do better in reruns than the teen soaps.
Latest “new” episodes in the 18-49 ratings:
1. SMALLVILLE with a 1.6 (had a 1.6 in 2nd half hour)
2. SUPERNATURAL with a 1.3 (had a 1.3 in 2nd half hour)
3. ONE TREE HILL with a 1.2 (had a 1.3 in 2nd half hour)
4. 90210 with a 1.1 (had a 1.1 in 2nd half hour)
5. GOSSIP GIRL with a 1.1 (had a 1.0 in 2nd half hour)
Those numbers are becoming the norm and when you look at the second and third most important age groups for marketing purposes (and thus all that is important to the Network) the numbers are similar.
While the overall numbers have deteriorated so have their 18-49 numbers, while SMALLVILLE has held strong, and SUPERNATURAL has slowly built on its audience.
A Network that was truly trying to build something would take the top two shows and make them center pieces for different nights and try and build new shows with similar numbers. That is why MARTIAN MANHUNTER isn’t a bad idea. They should pick it up and keep SMALLVILLE for another season. A 2 hour block of DC couldn’t hurt.
Moving SUPERNATURAL back to Tuesdays and pairing it with a new show wouldn’t be a bad idea either.
I say they have something decent with Monday, keep the GOSSIP GIRL/ONE TREE HILL combo. I’d move 90210 and MELROSE PLACE to Sunday nights if they insist on keeping that idea around. I’d also consider putting a new STAR TREK show of some sort on Wednesday night after AMERICA’S NEXT TOP MODEL. Those shows always did well for UPN no matter what night they aired.
I’d try to build Friday night with sitcoms. Something may just make it there because there is little competition outside of CBS. They have too many teen soaps, and I fully think they’ve over saturated the market. 90210 is not a big hit and the numbers are very VERONICA MARS like. They should ditch 90210 now while they have the chance.