This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post containing unscripted shows click here. For the Renew/Cancel Indexes for the other networks click these links:
Now that Sunday Night Football is done, NBC's average for adults 18-49 is dropping, and that makes many of its shows look like candidates to be renewed and not cancelled. Chuck being renewed is looking more and more certain. And while Law & Order could be renewed on history alone (20th season!), its numbers are looking better relative to the trainwreck that is NBC. Same with Kath & Kim. I'd have given it little hope of being renewed earlier, but NBC's a beggar, not a chooser. Another few weeks and those last 2 will be in the green.
Of course, NBC's adults 18-49 average will get a huge boost because of the Super Bowl this Sunday. I will do my best to remove that effect entirely from the season to date average, so it doesn't skew our Index results.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,204 | 3,480 | 0.35 | finishing Sat |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS* | NBC | 1,931 | 3,480 | 0.55 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,480 | 0.57 | cancelled |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,535 | 3,480 | 0.73 | |
| LIFE - WED (1) | NBC | 2,553 | 3,480 | 0.73 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,480 | 0.76 | cancelled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,022 | 3,480 | 0.87 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 3,056 | 3,480 | 0.88 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,348 | 3,480 | 0.96 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,387 | 3,480 | 0.97 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,351 | 3,480 | 1.25 | final season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,398 | 3,480 | 1.26 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,570 | 3,480 | 1.31 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,343 | 3,480 | 1.54 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,550 | 3,480 | 1.59 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
*Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
(1) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
No not Kath & Kim! Its terrible
To either Bill or Robert,
Do you think Chuck ending its season early (April 13) to make way for a reality show have any affect on its renewal chances? http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117999130.html?categoryid=1071&cs=1
Chuck does not rerun well but not ending its season during May Sweep can’t be a good sign.
I don’t view that or the way NBC has publicly spoken about Chuck as positives for renewal prospects. They talk more glowingly about the cancelled Lipstick Jungle which is disconcerting!
I agree with Robert that it’s definitely not a positive, but with the disconnect between NBC’s public pronouncements/actions and reality at times, it’s hard to know exactly what’s up.
aslong as chucks renewed i dont mind.
although i do like knight rider and lipstick jungle im being realistic theyre both canned
No Chuck is a definite for renewal. Maybe if NBC wasn’t doing so badly then it wouldn’t be. The only reason that Chuck isn’t airing during May sweeps is so it can run repeat free from Ferbuary-April along with Heroes. Thats why both shows were started up in february rather than January. The way I see it, Law & Order is doing good enough that it will be back for a historic 20th season, and Kath & Kim is doing so poorly that NBC cut the episodes from 22 to 17, not to mention finishing the show up early to make room for the new Amy Poehler show.
My Opinion:
Renewed: Heroes, Chuck, Law & Order, Medium, SVU, The Office, My Name is Earl, 30 Rock, Biggest Loser, Deal or No Deal, Amy Poehler show,
Cancelled: Knight Rider, Kath & Kim, Crusoe, My Own Worst Enemy, ER
On the fence: Life, Lipstick Jungle, Friday Night Lights
I still find it hilarious that anyone can consider Life and Lipstick Jungle on the fence. Silverman’s BS really works.
Friday Night Lights is below Smallville!
NBC hits a new low. Apart from Crusoe (we don’t go there).
life and lipstick jungle are good shows and i think they should continue. maybe nbc should consider airing them in the summer alongside americas got talent
NBC released a schedule that shows Heroes ending the season before May sweeps (April 27th to be exact). It makes me feel a bit better about Chuck ending on April 13th.
Unless that Amy Poehler sitcom ends up bombing horribly, I have trouble see a scenario where Kath & Kim gets renewed.
I think ordering Knight Rider series after that patetic attempt of a movie/pilot was a great sign of how NBC is going to be this year. Quite frankly I wouldn’t be suprised if they “gave another shot” to Knight Rider. Life and Kath & Kim on the other hand are definitely done.
Robert and Bill,
I don’t think Chuck ending early is a bad sign. If you take a look at the schedule NBC released, it looks like they’re keeping their Monday schedule intact, meaning that all 3 Monday shows are airing episodes uninterrupted. Heroes is ending later because they have 2 more episodes than Chuck, thus Heroes ending two weeks later. And from the indication of of the schedule, Medium will also air uninterrupted.
http://spoilertv.blogspot.com/2009/01/cbs-episode-production-various-shows.html
@ VYuci
Heroes has 25 episodes this season,
Chuck has 22. Heroes has three more, and has already aired 13, whereas Chuck has aired only 11. They should wrap up at the same time. From Feb 2 to April 13, there will be 11 Chuck airings, it isn’t really coming off early.
My Predictions:
Cancelled: Friday Night Lights, Knight Rider, Life, Kath & Kim (those that are already cancelled aren’t included)
Renewed: The Office, Heroes, 30 Rock, ER, My Name is Earl, Chuck
On the fence: Law and Order
I don’t know how well “Kings” will do, but I’ll bet it gets renewed.
EDIT: Heroes will wrap up one week after Chuck
Again, Kath & Kim WOULD have had a fair shot at sticking around, especially if NBC’s new comedy pilots looked about as week. Unfortuantely for it, there’s no way that a show from the people behind The Office won’t do much better in the same timeslot……Amy Poehler in, Selma Blair out.
*weak/unfortunately……forgive the typos. I mean, you all still forgive NBC for canceling Jesse?
Right?
Right????
Law & Order will get a new season I think.
I guess it’s a good thing Leno taking over 5 hours since NBC only has 6 shows + biggest loser, dateline, and maybe the apprentice coming back next season. Law & Order should come back even if it’s only for half a season. Kath & Kim only will be back if the Amy Poehler sitcom does worse or if NBC is trying to expand it’s comedy slate and has something new for fall to pair it with then maybe it will be spared the axe.
I hope NBC gets some kind of boost from the Super Bowl and that it doesn’t completely disappear after a couple weeks. They need some good news and at least unlike the olympics where they were promoting their fall schedule that was over a month away, they can promote shows that will actually be airing the same week.
Interested to see how much of a bump the Office gets on Thursday after it’s SB episode. I know it’s not likely to see much of an increase, the show is in it’s 5th season and is a unique type of humor, so likely people either find it funny or they don’t, not many people probably who only kind of like it. It’s been a strong 3rd place show in the demos already, I wonder if it could beat CSI this coming week and take 2nd on a night with all new episodes??