This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post containing unscripted shows click here. For the Renew/Cancel Indexes for the other networks click these links:
Not much has changed for CW shows this week. Privileged looks like the only show likely to be cancelled among their currently airing scripted shows.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,100 | 0.26 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,100 | 0.31 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS* | CW | 836 | 1,100 | 0.76 | |
| THE GAME* | CW | 944 | 1,100 | 0.86 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 966 | 1,100 | 0.88 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,621 | 1,100 | 1.47 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,697 | 1,100 | 1.54 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1,802 | 1,100 | 1.64 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1,812 | 1,100 | 1.65 | |
| Smallville | CW | 1,948 | 1,100 | 1.77 |
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*Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
but privileged is the best show on the cw
Remember SMALLVILLE is in its final season. They also need shows for Sundays. I wouldn’t be shocked if PRIVILEGED stayed around for a try on Sunday night. The show fits what Dawn wants to do and she likes it. That is of course if next season is the same plan of make the network for 18-34 females. They will need something for Sundays.
i think privileged [9pm] and one tree hill [8pm] could move to sunday next season and then the cw could launch new shows after gg and 90210
Smallville is not in its final season, CW is trying to bring it back for its 9th and what will likely then be its last season. CW does need something for Sundays but they probably won’t bring back Privileged to do it. They’ll probably try out a new block like they did last year. And like Life is Wild and Reaper, Privileged is the underdog drama for CW this year. This list is exactly how I believe things are going to play out for alll the CW shows.
Nick, has it been announced that Smallville is in its final season, or is that just the assumption based on discussions with show participants? You do make a good point about the CW needing another 4 hours of shows for Sunday night.
privileged could return midseason but i doubt it
I wonder how Privileged would fare at 8pm? Lets be honest, its probably the most family oriented show on the CW and once it became apparent that 90210 was a gaping black hole of suck, they should’ve switched timeslots. Privileged’s special repeat on Wednesday outrated its Tuesday repeat and for the few times it aired on Sundays, I believe it was semi-strong too. I know pulling for a show that is this close to cancellation is probably not smart…but I can’t help it. Its a great, smart dramedy. Plus, we need to support our Everwood alums! Rina Mimoun deserves sucess…and hopefully this show can be it.
I don’t understand how CW manages to pay it’s bills… They should shut down the network, it’s useless…
Pix, my understanding is that at least for the first two seasons CBS was pouring money into CW, and that’s how it was paying its bills. But considering the current economy and the trouble CBS Corp. is in I wonder how (if?) CW will continue to pay its bills.
This blows as we just got into Privileged. We actually hunted down old episodes on friends DVRs, Repeats, etc.. now we like the show. This is typical of the current mindset of today everyone wants instant gratification. I seem to remember a lot of shows that have taken more then one season to take off but now we just don’t give shows time to develop. Today’s TV is hot out of the box or goodbye in less then 3 months. The funny part is this mindset is what is driving people away from the TV. They don’t want to become invested in a show because the likelihood of it being canceled is so insanely high. So why should people watch new TV when if they like it the show gets taken away?
Creating a show like M*A*S*H today would be pointless as it would have never made it past the first year.
Misfit.
Bill, I’m under the assumption this is the last season of SMALLVILLE because that is the way certain members of the production feel. Yes, the CW is trying for a 9th season. Welling just isn’t interested in continuing the saga of Clark the not quite Superman. He has stated interest in appearing as SUPERMAN himself for MARTIAN MANHUNTER if they greenlight that or for a Justice League type of show. So far GREEN ARROW has been shot down by Dawn, and MARTIAN MANHUNTER has yet to be told officially “no.” SMALLVILLE currently has a script ready to shoot for the series finale, complete with Clark taking on his responsibilities. If there is to be a 9th season it will have to be decided on this month. So we should learn more this month. Welling is also holding out for some serious cash. Good for him.
Plus the CW may not exist for another season.
Come on Nick, don’t leave us hanging. What are the chances for the CW? Is that speculation from Smallville production teams (those working in Canada usually fear the worse), or is there some actual network intel on that? Judging by their commitment to upfronts, they’ve got at least one more season in them.
Their future does look pretty damned bleak though.
Tom Welling is lucky to have a role in Smallville, such a bad actor.
ajj, it’s my understanding that the CW is a sinking ship. It isn’t losing money the way UPN was but it doesn’t have the income that UPN did either. The people that helped make the network less of a black hole don’t have much hope right now of things getting better under their current heading.
The people making that decision (about the future of the CW) will have to come to a decision to either keep Dawn and her plan or ditch Dawn and make the CW more like the network Moonves envisioned when the merger took place. Moonves saw the CW as a place where good shows that CBS couldn’t support may be able to find a home as well as programming aimed at younger markets (notice the plural on market).
I really think the CW could make some serious changes for the better if they put the right man/woman at the helm. I mean it’s not all that crazy to say “we can be the 3rd most watched network,” because lets face it, NBC has fallen to a point that makes it possible.
Make an agreement with the NFL to air all NFL channel games simultaneously on the network for one. Make part of that agreement be getting to air a play off game too.
cool, that may be but he’s CLARK KENT, and without him there can be no season 9. So he can hold out for serious cash, because as you claim he isn’t talented. So he better take the payday when he can get it.
Because somebody brought it up, i’m going to ask it, could the CW actually afford the rights to NFL games? It isn’t like the NHL, they don’t just give that stuff away. lol.
for next year i would have
MON:
Gossip girl
Privileged
TUE
90210
Gossip girl spin-off
WED:
Americas…
NEW show
THU
Smallville (final season)
Supernatural
FRI
Comedys
repeats
SUN
One Tree Hill (final season)
Melrose Place
Monday: Gossip Girl/OTH
Tuesday: 90210/Merlose Place (NEW)
Wednesday: America’s Next Top Model/ The Vampire Diaries (NEW)
Thursday: Smallville/Supernatural:
Friday: Movies
Sunday: Gossip Girl spinoff (NEW)/comedies
If Smallville brings in 4 Million each time, that’s 44% higher then any other show on the THE CW. So THE CW will keep renewing it each year.
CW seems all about the ratings, though it is so confusing why they keep renewing everyone hates chris.
I truely hope htey keep privileged, I just recently got into the show as well. I have no hope of it gettin renewed which is quite sad.