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Prospects For Ugly Betty, Law & Order, Kath & Kim Are Better Than You Think

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January 30th, 2009

Ugly Betty

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after February 4, 2009 click here to see the latest list.

Who says these posts are always bad news? Prospects for Ugly Betty, Law & Order and Kath & Kim may be better than you think. Sadly, prospects for Privileged, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, New Adventures of Old Christine are likely worse than you think. Read on to see which one has the best chance for survival!

We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.

Ugly Betty’s Future Hangs On Performance of ABC’s Spring Shows

CBS’s Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Worst Week Fight Survive

CW’s Privileged Likely Cancelled, Others Likely Renewed

Fox’s Terminator: Sarah Connor ChroniclesHopes For A Ratings Miracle On Fridays

As NBC Sinks Law & Order, Kath & Kim May Be Renewed

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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.

This is the same "all network" list that I've always posted. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, it's not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists, but here's the data for comparison purposes.


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
IN HARM'S WAY CW 355 1,100 0.32 cancelled
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1,453 3,480 0.42 cancelled
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS 1,778 3,960 0.45
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS 1,856 3,960 0.47
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC 1,722 3,480 0.49
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 1,763 3,530 0.50
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P FOX 1,804 3,530 0.51
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P FOX 1,817 3,530 0.51
WIFE SWAP ABC 1,882 3,560 0.53
48 Hours Mystery CBS 2,122 3,960 0.54
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 1,984 3,530 0.56
Dateline FRI NBC 1,957 3,480 0.56
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 2,029 3,560 0.57
Dateline SUN-7PM NBC 1,995 3,480 0.57
Supernanny ABC 2,061 3,560 0.58
COPS FOX 2,154 3,530 0.61
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 2,175 3,560 0.61
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX 2,184 3,530 0.62
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS 2,515 3,960 0.64
MOMMA'S BOYS NBC 2,369 3,480 0.68
HOWIE DO IT 8:30 NBC 2,396 3,480 0.69
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 2,453 3,530 0.69
HOWIE DO IT 8P NBC 2,461 3,480 0.71
20/20-FRI ABC 2,524 3,560 0.71
COPS 2 FOX 2,511 3,530 0.71
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2,512 3,480 0.72
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC 2,607 3,480 0.75
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX 2,645 3,530 0.75
HOMELAND SECURITY USA ABC 2,750 3,560 0.77
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC 2,850 3,560 0.80
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 2,832 3,530 0.80
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2,952 3,560 0.83
13 - FEAR IS REAL CW 931 1,100 0.85
SUPERSTARS OF DANCE NBC 3,063 3,480 0.88
STYLISTA CW 988 1,100 0.90
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 3,572 3,560 1.00
PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO ABC 3,673 3,560 1.03
Amazing Race 13 CBS 4,180 3,960 1.06
60 Minutes CBS 4,188 3,960 1.06
TRUE BEAUTY ABC 3,801 3,560 1.07
BACHELOR, THE ABC 4,346 3,560 1.22
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4,260 3,480 1.22
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 4,329 3,480 1.24
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 4,707 3,560 1.32
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 5,543 3,960 1.40
Biggest Loser 7 NBC 5,182 3,480 1.49
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 5,369 3,560 1.51
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 5,578 3,480 1.60
Dancing with the Stars ABC 5,789 3,560 1.63
OT, THE FOX 5,772 3,530 1.64
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 2,564 1,100 2.33
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 8,533 3,480 2.45
American Idol-TUESDAY FOX 14,284 3,530 4.05
American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX 14,679 3,530 4.16

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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