Who says these posts are always bad news? Prospects for Ugly Betty, Law & Order and Kath & Kim may be better than you think. Sadly, prospects for Privileged, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, New Adventures of Old Christine are likely worse than you think. Read on to see which one has the best chance for survival!
We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
I’ve broken each network’s data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However the closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it’s in of being cancelled or not returning when it’s run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
This is the same “all network” list that I’ve always posted. Since we, and you, don’t care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn’t all that good in predicting their future, it’s not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists, but here’s the data for comparison purposes.
|PROGRAM||Net||STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)||Network Avg. STD 18-49||Renew/ Cancel index||Status|
|IN HARM’S WAY||CW||355||1,100||0.32||cancelled|
|AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS||NBC||1,453||3,480||0.42||cancelled|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P||CBS||1,778||3,960||0.45|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD||CBS||1,856||3,960||0.47|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI||NBC||1,722||3,480||0.49|
|SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER||FOX||1,763||3,530||0.50|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P||FOX||1,804||3,530||0.51|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P||FOX||1,817||3,530||0.51|
|48 HOURS MYSTERY||CBS||2,122||3,960||0.54|
|DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS||FOX||1,984||3,530||0.56|
|SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME||ABC||2,029||3,560||0.57|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8P||FOX||2,184||3,530||0.62|
|MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD||CBS||2,515||3,960||0.64|
|HOWIE DO IT 8:30||NBC||2,396||3,480||0.69|
|AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK||FOX||2,453||3,530||0.69|
|HOWIE DO IT 8P||NBC||2,461||3,480||0.71|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2||NBC||2,512||3,480||0.72|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED||NBC||2,607||3,480||0.75|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P||FOX||2,645||3,530||0.75|
|HOMELAND SECURITY USA||ABC||2,750||3,560||0.77|
|AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS||ABC||2,850||3,560||0.80|
|EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-7P||ABC||2,952||3,560||0.83|
|13 – FEAR IS REAL||CW||931||1,100||0.85|
|SUPERSTARS OF DANCE||NBC||3,063||3,480||0.88|
|SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL||ABC||3,572||3,560||1.00|
|PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO||ABC||3,673||3,560||1.03|
|AMAZING RACE 13||CBS||4,180||3,960||1.06|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3||NBC||4,260||3,480||1.22|
|BIGGEST LOSER 6||NBC||4,329||3,480||1.24|
|EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P||ABC||4,707||3,560||1.32|
|BIGGEST LOSER 7||NBC||5,182||3,480||1.49|
|DANCING W/STARS RESULTS||ABC||5,369||3,560||1.51|
|SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK||NBC||5,578||3,480||1.60|
|DANCING WITH THE STARS||ABC||5,789||3,560||1.63|
|AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-5||CW||2,564||1,100||2.33|
|NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL||NBC||8,533||3,480||2.45|
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.