The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after February 4, 2009 click here to see the latest list.
Who says these posts are always bad news? Prospects for Ugly Betty, Law & Order and Kath & Kim may be better than you think. Sadly, prospects for Privileged, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, New Adventures of Old Christine are likely worse than you think. Read on to see which one has the best chance for survival!
We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.
Ugly Betty’s Future Hangs On Performance of ABC’s Spring Shows
CBS’s Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Worst Week Fight Survive
CW’s Privileged Likely Cancelled, Others Likely Renewed
Fox’s Terminator: Sarah Connor ChroniclesHopes For A Ratings Miracle On Fridays
As NBC Sinks Law & Order, Kath & Kim May Be Renewed
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
This is the same "all network" list that I've always posted. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, it's not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists, but here's the data for comparison purposes.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 355 | 1,100 | 0.32 | cancelled |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,480 | 0.42 | cancelled |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P | CBS | 1,778 | 3,960 | 0.45 | |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD | CBS | 1,856 | 3,960 | 0.47 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,722 | 3,480 | 0.49 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,763 | 3,530 | 0.50 | |
| HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P | FOX | 1,804 | 3,530 | 0.51 | |
| HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P | FOX | 1,817 | 3,530 | 0.51 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,882 | 3,560 | 0.53 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,122 | 3,960 | 0.54 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,984 | 3,530 | 0.56 | |
| Dateline FRI | NBC | 1,957 | 3,480 | 0.56 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,029 | 3,560 | 0.57 | |
| Dateline SUN-7PM | NBC | 1,995 | 3,480 | 0.57 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,061 | 3,560 | 0.58 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,154 | 3,530 | 0.61 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 3,560 | 0.61 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,530 | 0.62 | |
| MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD | CBS | 2,515 | 3,960 | 0.64 | |
| MOMMA'S BOYS | NBC | 2,369 | 3,480 | 0.68 | |
| HOWIE DO IT 8:30 | NBC | 2,396 | 3,480 | 0.69 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,453 | 3,530 | 0.69 | |
| HOWIE DO IT 8P | NBC | 2,461 | 3,480 | 0.71 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,524 | 3,560 | 0.71 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,511 | 3,530 | 0.71 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,512 | 3,480 | 0.72 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,607 | 3,480 | 0.75 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P | FOX | 2,645 | 3,530 | 0.75 | |
| Homeland SECURITY USA | ABC | 2,750 | 3,560 | 0.77 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,850 | 3,560 | 0.80 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,832 | 3,530 | 0.80 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,952 | 3,560 | 0.83 | |
| 13 - FEAR IS REAL | CW | 931 | 1,100 | 0.85 | |
| SUPERSTARS OF DANCE | NBC | 3,063 | 3,480 | 0.88 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 988 | 1,100 | 0.90 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,572 | 3,560 | 1.00 | |
| PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO | ABC | 3,673 | 3,560 | 1.03 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,180 | 3,960 | 1.06 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,188 | 3,960 | 1.06 | |
| TRUE BEAUTY | ABC | 3,801 | 3,560 | 1.07 | |
| BACHELOR, THE | ABC | 4,346 | 3,560 | 1.22 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,260 | 3,480 | 1.22 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,329 | 3,480 | 1.24 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,707 | 3,560 | 1.32 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,543 | 3,960 | 1.40 | |
| Biggest Loser 7 | NBC | 5,182 | 3,480 | 1.49 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 5,369 | 3,560 | 1.51 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,578 | 3,480 | 1.60 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,789 | 3,560 | 1.63 | |
| OT, THE | FOX | 5,772 | 3,530 | 1.64 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2,564 | 1,100 | 2.33 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,533 | 3,480 | 2.45 | |
| American Idol-TUESDAY | FOX | 14,284 | 3,530 | 4.05 | |
| American Idol-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 14,679 | 3,530 | 4.16 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
This is an interesting concept!!!
What is it that makes a show a success?
I have been a TV fan (addict) all of my life. Surprisingly, my family once was asked to do nielson’s, back when it was a little booklet that you hand to fill out. We averaged 18 hrs a day!
I’ve lived through television shortages! Lived in Great Britain during the early 70’s when only BBC-I & BBC-2 existed. I remember watching a test pattern for up to 3 hrs waiting for any show to come on because there were no TV guides, printed or otherwise. During the 80’s during the writers strike when Canadian shows were imported.
Now with a family and many other responsibilities, the shows content is extremely important. Some shows, I watch, (male) some shows my wife watches (female) and some shows we watch together. Isn’t there room for both?
We watch many of the top ranked shows, but way too many of our shows are cancelled before given a chance to establish a strong and loyal following, or the writing turns to crap because the writers never expected to make it this far. Prison Break never expected to make it past 3!!! We gave up b4 this year aired.
How many TV exec’s would expect that I religiously watch Eli, Life and the wife doesn’t? Of course, they would expect me to watch Fringe which I do.
The cancellation process needs to be analyzed further by the networks.
Jim
nICE PICTURE OF MS. BETTY SUAREZ
START SPREADING THE NEWS NEW YORK NEW YORK!
I want my colors back!!! Please!!!!!????
Andy, The colors are still used on the scripted shows. Read the forth paragraph under the picture:
I’ve broken each network’s data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.
Hopefully Law & Order survives. It’s one of my favourite shows. Too bad NBC is currently more obsessed with no-brains-neccessary programming like reality shows and Leno. Hopefully they’ll bring it back. Or at least they should move it to USA network.
Jim, I can beat that…
FADE IN:
INT. CANADA – SUBURBAN BUNGALOW – SNOWED IN – EARLY 1970s
Defenceless BOY (I), age five, is sitting on an ugly shag carpet watching CBC Television (one of only two television networks, then) via a 26″ black and white Marconi TV set, praying that the afternoon hockey game does not go into overtime and cause the 6pm broadcast of The Bugs Bunny Show to be cancelled, again.
FADE OUT:
If the 1990s, I would have been empowered and called Child Services because of such abuse.
When will the networks realize that 18-49 is on their computers or twittering and not watching TV? And with the constant drop and flip mentality of programming, no one has a chance to become loyal.
Their rating should tell them they have no clue. So here’s one- leave a show on for 13, or 22 straight weeks, in the same time slot, on the same day- no reuns. If it makes it great, if not they have use dup their ordered shows and actually given them a chance to catch on. Novel? No – its what us old people used to get form the big three.