This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post containing unscripted shows click here. For the Renew/Cancel Indexes for the other networks click these links:
With the announcement recently that Ugly Betty was being removed from the schedule amid the introduction of many new shows to the ABC spring line up, its fanbase was caught up in a wave of dispair. Could it be getting cancelled? Not necessarily.
While commenters often moan that all I bring in these posts are a tide of woe for their favorite shows, Ugly Betty's fate seems far from decided. So far this season it has been right on "the bubble" in terms of being renewed or cancelled for next season, and I think it still is. Its future hinges on the performance of the new shows about to be introduced this spring by ABC. If enough of the new shows do well, it's bye, bye Betty. But if they do poorly, Betty will be welcomed back with open arms.
So, the message to Ugly Betty fans out there is Hope All the New ABC Shows Tank!
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,560 | 0.61 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,560 | 0.64 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,560 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,560 | 0.69 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,560 | 0.72 | cancelled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,560 | 0.80 | finished |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,251 | 3,560 | 0.91 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 3,445 | 3,560 | 0.97 | final season |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 3,530 | 3,560 | 0.99 | final season |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,560 | 1.01 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,626 | 3,560 | 1.02 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,741 | 3,560 | 1.05 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,680 | 3,560 | 1.31 | |
| LOST | ABC | 6,626 | 3,560 | 1.86 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 7,170 | 3,560 | 2.01 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,620 | 3,560 | 2.14 |
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(1) After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
(2) Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I think UB is coming back even if the new comedies hit. Its very close in $yndication. What they should do is to begin the transformation of Betty into a ‘beautiful person’ just like the original telenovela.
How is 63 very close to syndication? If the magic number really is 100, it would need two more seasons to hit that. Another season won’t even put it quite at 88.
If Betty gets a fourth season than syndication is likely. And comedies haven’t done well thursdays at 8 in recent history is its very likely that betty will be back.
syndication is on ub’s side as is the fact that its a well established brand that abc could relocate to a new night possibly alongside dwts
You dont need *100* episodes for syndication. UB can be back for a fourth and even fith season but on Fridays, their original day before ABC moved UB to thursdays.
Ugly Betty was going to originally air on Fridays but then in a smart move, switched to Thursdays. Ironically Betty replaced 2 comedies when it premiered (Big Day & Notes from the Underbelly) and now it seems 2 comedies may replace it. Betty will be back.
This seems to be the last season of Scrubs > http://www.tvsquad.com/2009/01/30/its-official-scrubs-to-end-this-season/
I hope you are right about Ugly Betty! But if anyone wants to make sure you can sign this petition:http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/dontshelveuglybetty/signatures/pg/3
Or tell abc directly: http://abc.go.com/site/contactus.html?lid=ABCCOMGlobalFooter&lpos=CONTACT
Cait, I saved your comment from the spam filter, but for others, >1 URL in a comment will always cause it to be captured.
Julia, both My Name is Earl and The Office have been in syndication on TBS for awhile now, well before they’re even approaching 100 episodes.
and The Game is going to BET with only 55 episodes.
I think Ugly Betty will be back. They’ll probably put it in a different time-slot though. really nothing else to predict here.
Vader, lots of shows get sold to cable nets well before they reach the “magic” number. But my understanding is that that is different from the sort of syndication money that comes from hitting 100 (or 88 depending on who you ask).
Move it 2 Tuesday after DWTS!!! That’s the best chance for Ugly Betty.
I think its unfair to cancel Ugly betty just like that. Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies, Dirty Sexy money had less than 7 million viewers they aired like 10 episodes. Ugly Betty has been consistent last year with 8 to 9 million viewers.
UB is definitely right “on the bubble”, I think Samantha Who and Mars are also in danger even though they are average now. Who will not have DWTS lead in support and if Thursday doesn’t work out, might be damaging enough to cancel it, it’s also been off the schedule so long now, not good usually. On the other hand, with Scrubs ending, Who is their only comedy so that might tip the scales towards renewal. Mars needs to stop its ratings slide quickly to get renewed.
ABC has 2 dramas and 2 new comedies premiering all in March, is that right?? I think the dramas both will have DWTS lead-in support initially at least, the comedies will have to be self starters. It is possible they all could tank enough to save some or all of ABC’s current bubble shows.
the fact that UB premiered with 16 million and now is averaging only the half after just three seasons must be alarming. I dont know if the comedies will hit or not but at least TRY something NEW there. PP fixed the 10pm so why not the 8pm?
ABC is not going to have a breakout show anytime soon, because they have mishandled everything when it comes to new shows. What they need to do is go back to the 2004-2005 season and ask themselves ‘How were we able to come up with three breakout shows that year (Desperate Housewives, Lost, Greys), and what is it that we need to do to make sure this happens again?
The answer is easy. Buzz, promotion, and established actors. Does anyone not remember the beautiful campaign ABC ran for ‘Desperate Housewives’ in the summer of 2004 long before it premiered? They need to take the money they are currently spending promoting their established shows and use it to create buzz for new shows. No matter how little or how much you promote Grey’s Anatomy…it’s still going to get viewers. Use that money for something else.
Didn’t Ugly Betty used to be, like, really really popular? What happened?
Craig S You’re wrong! not 2 new dramas but 3 – Castle, Cupid (more like a dramedy) and The Unusuals. Then the 2 comedies (In the Momma’shood, Better Off Ted).
Sam, ABC had a new drama hit last 2006 it was Ugly Betty its popularity just went down a little in its 2nd season.
I am hoping ABC would have a hit like DH, Lost, GA and UB. Its been a long time since they had a hit new drama series.
UB should be moved to another night and I bet the ratings will go up. There is too much competish on Thursday night and I always Tivo it. ABC would be silly to let such a critical hit leave their stable but if they do, another network should pick it up. It’s the only feel good family dramedy on TV.