After crashing on its return to ABC's schedule last week, Life On Mars is looking like it may be a candidate for cancellation. Check out its prospects along with all the other broadcast prime-time shows with the links below in this post.
We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.
CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE THE LISTS FOR EACH NETWORK"S SCRIPTED SHOWS:
Law & Order Looking Good For A 20th Season
UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
This is the same "all network" list that I've always posted. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, it's not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists, but here's the data for comparison purposes.
|PROGRAM||Net||STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)||Network Avg. STD 18-49||Renew/ Cancel index|
|IN HARM'S WAY||CW||355||1,080||0.33|
|AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS||NBC||1,453||3,480||0.42|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P||CBS||1,778||3,900||0.46|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD||CBS||1,856||3,900||0.48|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI||NBC||1,722||3,480||0.49|
|SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER||FOX||1,763||3,530||0.50|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P||FOX||1,803||3,530||0.51|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P||FOX||1,817||3,530||0.51|
|DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS||FOX||1,984||3,530||0.56|
|SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME||ABC||2,029||3,520||0.58|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8P||FOX||2,184||3,530||0.62|
|MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD||CBS||2,515||3,900||0.64|
|HOWIE DO IT 8:30||NBC||2,310||3,480||0.66|
|KITCHEN NIGHTMRS-THU 8P||FOX||2,362||3,530||0.67|
|HOWIE DO IT 8P||NBC||2,356||3,480||0.68|
|AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK||FOX||2,466||3,530||0.70|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2||NBC||2,512||3,480||0.72|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED||NBC||2,607||3,480||0.75|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P||FOX||2,645||3,530||0.75|
|AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS||ABC||2,731||3,520||0.78|
|13 - FEAR IS REAL||CW||842||1,080||0.78|
|SUPERSTARS OF DANCE||NBC||2,874||3,480||0.83|
|PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO||ABC||3,462||3,520||0.98|
|SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL||ABC||3,572||3,520||1.01|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3||NBC||4,260||3,480||1.22|
|DANCING W/STARS RESULTS||ABC||5,369||3,520||1.53|
|SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK||NBC||5,578||3,480||1.60|
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.