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CW's Privileged Finishing Early, Likely For Good

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February 3rd, 2009

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. For the main post containing unscripted shows click here. For the Renew/Cancel Indexes for the other networks click these links:

The announcement that the season finale of Privileged has been moved up to February 24 can't be seen as good news. My guess is that it's going to be cancelled and that's the show's series finale.

One of CW's better performing shows from last season, Reaper, will be returning on March 3, earlier than originally scheduled. After the problems with the network this year, I'm sure it hopes that Reaper brings some good news.

Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
EASY MONEY CW  288  1,080 0.27 cancelled
VALENTINE CW  345  1,080 0.32  cancelled
EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS* CW  843  1,080 0.78  
PRIVILEGED CW  938  1,080 0.87  
THE GAME* CW  955  1,080 0.88  
90210 CW  1,643  1,080 1.52  
Supernatural CW  1,652  1,080 1.53  
One Tree Hill CW  1,751  1,080 1.62  
Gossip Girl CW  1,770  1,080 1.64  
Smallville CW  1,968  1,080 1.82  

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*Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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