2/2/09 Update: It’s official, Life on Mars Is Canceled.
Life on Mars results continue to fall, and its fate continues to look more and more bleak. Ugly Betty is maintaining its position. Its future is likely dependent on how ABC's new spring shows do.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,530 | 0.62 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,530 | 0.64 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,530 | 0.67 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,530 | 0.70 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,530 | 0.72 | cancelled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,530 | 0.81 | cancelled |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,120 | 3,530 | 0.88 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 3,121 | 3,530 | 0.88 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 3,228 | 3,530 | 0.91 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,427 | 3,530 | 0.97 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,530 | 1.02 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,956 | 3,530 | 1.12 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,635 | 3,530 | 1.31 | |
| LOST | ABC | 6,499 | 3,530 | 1.84 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 6,916 | 3,530 | 1.96 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,540 | 3,530 | 2.14 |
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Notes:
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow that’s a lot of red. There’s only 5.5 hours of green in there for what, 21 hours of primetime? They must have high hopes for their midseason replacements!
Chris S., Indeed they do.
They also have at least 9 hours of non-scripted shows each week (nearly half of the Sunday-Friday programming).
Michael Ausiello is reporting that Ugly Betty is on the verge of renewal. Of course it’s offical though
Ausiello said the same for Womens Murder Club last season. So now I believe the show is in real trouble…
I’m fairly sure ABC can’t cancel Lost, even if they want to. So “renewal likely” is a little inaccurate….
The shape that ABC is in, Ugly Betty will be back. Life on Mars is a highly likely candidate for cancellation, if ratings keep slipping.
Jack, Yes, ABC can cancel Lost. They won’t, but they can.
The problem is that ABC has way too many reality shows. But I dont blame them, Makeover, Dancing, Bachelor, Wifeswap/Supernnany get good ratings.
I like Supernanny, and my wife loves both it and Wife Swap – but good ratings? Maybe for Fridays – but overall, if it weren’t for the fact that both are quite cheap compared to a sitcom or drama (but not as cheap as Til Death – oy gevalt!), not even Tinkerbell could save them.
Supposedly ABC is close to renewing Ugly Betty, according to Ausiello. Yet Private Practice isn’t on the list of the renewed shows. Doesn’t make much sense that UB would get a pick up before PP considering the ratings/demo.
Yep ABC is close to renewing Betty, Since Betty is older than Practice its not much of a surprise that Betty would get a pickup before Practice. But Private Practice as well as Samantha Who? are both expected to return next season.
Wait, I’m confused… Why is Life on Mars above 92% and not in the green? Is it because it’s falling?
I don’t question Auisiello is hearing such rumors, but honestly unless ABC is extremely hot for some other project from the shows’ producers and they can’t get it unless they commit to UB for another season, I can’t understand why ABC would feel any hurry to make this decision anytime soon.
UB is going on hiatus and ABC is premiering a bunch of shows in the spring. Aside from some special circumstances type deal mentioned above, why would ABC renew UB before even seeing the ratings for the new shows?
If I had to guess, I’d guess Auisello’s source(s) for this are coming from people involved with making the show and not the people at the network who will actually make the decision.
Vader, yes, it’s due to the recent trend. Since coming back after Lost it’s doing a bit worse than Boston Legal’s average.
Robert, I hear it’s close to being renewed too. I hear it from ABC though. I think they’re getting a good deal, and doesn’t another season put the show over 100 eps?
I’ll try and find out more tomorrow I guess. I haven’t really paid much attention to it.
no. it will need two more seasons to get to 100. It will only be low 60s after this year. What’s the advantage of ABC renewing NOW. Will the good deal magically come off the table in 2 months? I’m doubtful ABC is afraid of the economy turning around by May and worried it will cost more then.
edit: to be clear, I’m not doubting your info, I’m just not comprehending it
Nick, unless this season is more than 22 and next season as well, a fourth season will put them at 85.
When I said Wifeswap/Supernanny getting good ratings It’s because of the profit of those shows, one doesnt even has a host and both are dirty cheap. Yes, they’re not getting great numbers but is getting some decent Friday numbers for ABC in years. Last year they were FIFTH behind CW and now they’re behind CBS. the fact that Superanny hit last friday a 2.3 in the demo and neither Pushing Daisies/Dirty Sexy Money hit that on Wednesdays this Wednesdays tells you something.
I can see Samantha Who sinking even further when it returns. Without the DWTS lead-in it plummets.
Private Practice looks like being the only new show from the last 2 seasons that is likely to be renewed for a 3rd.
ABC really need some mid-season shows to take off.