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The Unit's Fourth Season Looks To Be Its Last

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February 10th, 2009

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after February 18, 2009 click here to see the latest list.

I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.

CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK'S SCRIPTED SHOWS:

ABC: Life On Mars Continues to Sink Towards Cancellation

CBS: Fans of The Unit Should Prepare Their Farewells

CW: Privileged Season Ends February 24, Say Goodbye

Fox: Terminator Fans Wish For Big Return on Friday

NBC: Friday Night Lights Fans Hope The Check Is In The Mail

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UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS

For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.

This is the same "all network" list that I've always posted. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, it's not worth splitting it up into 5 separate lists, but here's the data for comparison purposes.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index
IN HARM'S WAY CW  355  1,080 0.33
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC  1,453  3,440 0.42
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P FOX  1,501  3,530 0.43
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS  1,778  3,920 0.45
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS  1,856  3,920 0.47
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P FOX  1,694  3,530 0.48
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX  1,763  3,530 0.50
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC  1,722  3,440 0.50
48 Hours Mystery CBS  2,122  3,920 0.54
WIFE SWAP ABC  1,947  3,530 0.55
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX  1,984  3,530 0.56
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC  2,029  3,530 0.57
Dateline FRI NBC  1,989  3,440 0.58
Dateline SUN-7PM NBC  2,011  3,440 0.58
Supernanny ABC  2,130  3,530 0.60
COPS FOX  2,168  3,530 0.61
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC  2,175  3,530 0.62
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX  2,184  3,530 0.62
HOWIE DO IT 8:30 NBC  2,151  3,440 0.63
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS  2,515  3,920 0.64
HOWIE DO IT 8P NBC  2,256  3,440 0.66
KITCHEN NIGHTMRS-THU 8P FOX  2,362  3,530 0.67
MOMMA'S BOYS NBC  2,369  3,440 0.69
HOMELAND SECURITY USA ABC  2,441  3,530 0.69
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX  2,465  3,530 0.70
COPS 2 FOX  2,524  3,530 0.72
20/20-FRI ABC  2,539  3,530 0.72
13 - FEAR IS REAL CW  783  1,080 0.73
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC  2,512  3,440 0.73
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX  2,645  3,530 0.75
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC  2,607  3,440 0.76
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC  2,800  3,530 0.79
Kitchen Nightmares FOX  2,832  3,530 0.80
SUPERSTARS OF DANCE NBC  2,874  3,440 0.84
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC  2,952  3,530 0.84
STYLISTA CW  988  1,080 0.91
PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO ABC  3,347  3,530 0.95
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC  3,572  3,530 1.01
Amazing Race 13 CBS  4,180  3,920 1.07
60 Minutes CBS  4,181  3,920 1.07
TRUE BEAUTY ABC  3,829  3,530 1.08
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC  4,260  3,440 1.24
Biggest Loser 6 NBC  4,329  3,440 1.26
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC  4,695  3,530 1.33
BACHELOR, THE ABC  4,729  3,530 1.34
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS  5,543  3,920 1.41
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC  5,369  3,530 1.52
Biggest Loser 7 NBC  5,240  3,440 1.52
HELL'S KITCHEN FOX  5,454  3,530 1.55
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC  5,578  3,440 1.62
OT, THE FOX  5,772  3,530 1.64
Dancing with the Stars ABC  5,789  3,530 1.64
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW  2,564  1,080 2.37
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC  8,533  3,440 2.48
American Idol-TUESDAY FOX  13,802  3,530 3.91
American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX  14,128  3,530 4.00

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

 
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