Friday Night Lights will escape cancellation only through the continuing largesse of DirecTV or some other sugar daddy, its ratings are terrible. Life & Knight Rider look certain to be cancelled as well. Kath & Kim didn't have a bad start, but now it's sinking and looks like a goner.
While the recent results for Chuck and Heroes on Monday have been down, I believe a combination of the overall devastation at NBC this season, particularly for their new shows, and their seeming inability to come up with anything better, likely keeps those two safe from cancellation. My guess is that the failure (my guess) of the new NBC shows this spring will seal the deal.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Cancelled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,167 | 3,340 | 0.35 | finished |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1,809 | 3,340 | 0.54 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,340 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 2,372 | 3,340 | 0.71 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,403 | 3,340 | 0.72 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,340 | 0.79 | cancelled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2,931 | 3,340 | 0.88 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 3,042 | 3,340 | 0.91 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,342 | 3,340 | 1.00 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,371 | 3,340 | 1.01 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 3,697 | 3,340 | 1.11 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,076 | 3,340 | 1.22 | final season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,206 | 3,340 | 1.26 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,511 | 3,340 | 1.35 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,263 | 3,340 | 1.58 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,390 | 3,340 | 1.61 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Friday Night Lights. Even for Friday night, those numbers are turn out the lights awful. But last season, DirecTV pulled out its checkbook and the show continued for another season. If DirecTV (or someone else) is inclined to do it again, the numbers may not matter at all. If they're not inclined to write the check again, the show's certain to be cancelled at the end of this season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow…Chuck’s index went up? That’s AWESOME, but I’m confused… After today’s post about yesterday’s ratings I thought we were screwed…but I do see your point about NBC’s situation (not to mention the stiff competition on Monday’s right now). I hope Chuck is safe! We shall see, but the index looks better than I thought it would today. I’ll take it!
Jenna, Chuck’s index is a measure of its *relative* performance vs. other NBC shows. Chuck has been down recently, but NBC has been down even more overall.
the index will break on NBC. No shows that you show cancelled will be saved, but more than one of the shows you show being renewed could well be cancelled or moved off the broadcast net. This makes the following assumptions:
1. 10 hours of programming Mon-Fri
and that assumes they don’t want to launch at least one additional new show (and given performance, of course they will!)
2. they are not likely to stick expensive scripted programming on Friday again any time soon. I admit this is an assumption based on what I think they should do, not necessarily what they would do.
3. add two hours of the Biggest Loser and the new Amy Poehler comedy to the green shows above and you’re already at 9 hours when you only need eight
I’m really interested to see NBC’s schedule for next year. Tuesdays (Biggest Loser) and Thursdays (comedy block) seem locked up, while Sunday is also for the fall (football). With Leno, that leaves Monday, Wednesday, and Friday 8-10 (or 6 hours) to fill. With regard to scripted dramas, Heroes and SVU will definitely be back, while Medium, Chuck, and Law & Order are somewhere in between maybe and probably. Let’s say either Southland or Kings is successful enough to renew for next year, which seems somewhat reasonable to me. That’s potentially 6 hours of shows to fill 6 hours of scheduling time.
Of course they can hold something back for midseason (which they seem to like to do with Medium), especially since Sundays are wide open come January. But when you’re the fourth place network, I’m sure you want to premiere more than one or two scripted hours in a fall not hindered by the writer’s strike. Perhaps the Leno experiment is their big risk for the fall, and midseason will be their focus.
I think that unless people fall in love with the stunt casting coming up (Chevy Chase etc). Because DWTS is coming back I think that the numbers will with either slightly fall or stay at the same level as yesterdays epi. That sucks. I still think it has a modest chance at renewal although I would’ve preferred giving the post superbowl spot to Chuck rather than The Office. It’s one of only 3 shows I watch on NBC after giving up on Heroes. I’m just glad that The Office and 30 Rock are very likely for renewal. Oh, I really have high hopes for Parks and Recreation because Amy Poehler and Aziz Ansari are really funny and it’s made by Reveille who make my favorite show (the office).
CHUCK! I’m so worried lately and will not be content until it is definitely renewed. The season has been getting great, and though Chuck’s numbers are looking low, it is quite apparent that NBC’s overall ratings are nothing to cheer for.
Between 5:48 and 5:49, my post became very redundant.
I figured Earl, Chuck, Rock, SVU, Office, Heroes, Poehler and Loser for the Fall. That’s seven hours leaving one hour open for a new show from Monday-Thursday. Medium and L&O come in at mid-season as they did this season. Does that not work?
it doesn’t really work once mid-season rolls around without schedule changes bumping shows to Sunday (or sticking Medium and L&O on Sunday) or cancelling something by mid season. Medium works as a Monday at 10pm mid season show but it only works particularly well because MOWE was cancelled.
If Biggest Loser like most shows has 22 episodes than, it would be possible for NBC to launch Biggest Loser on Tuesdays as a 2hr show than launch a show for 13 weeks with biggest loser as it lead in. If it the show was good and picked up for a back 9 NBC could have it take a break while it air Biggest loser as 2 hours again after a new show runs its 13 episodes. it sounds like a decent plan in my head but my head is full of wonderful and crazy things.
With Leno at 10, they’ll have to make schedule changes next year anyway. SVU has to move. L&O would too if it returns anyway. I don’t view putting L&O and Medium on Sunday nights as drastic at all, not compared with giving Leno every weekday at 10.
I do not see NBC renewing something with a 2.2 demo with or without Leno, so goodbye ‘Chuck’! A 2.2 is below 0.9 of NBC’s average, right?
What happens if Parks and Rec. bombs horribly? I’ll see the pilot episode because it seems intriguing. But does NBC have another 30 min sitcom to put in just in case? They can always move Early to Tuesdays and make Biggest Loser half hour shorter. I agree with Bill that Medium and L&O will be mid season shows. L&O will come back because it will have its 20th season.
IMO, I can also see them moving Chuck until midseason as well. The reason why I say that is because Chuck’s ratings grow over the course of the season until it hits a break where it loses all its momentum. It has happen last season and this. This could be a risky move, but Chuck may do better airing 18-20 straight episodes.
But of course, NBC has the Olympics, so that may screw with their mid season schedule next year.
demonhog, as a matter of fact, NBC’s average 18-49 rating last week was a 2.1, Chuck was *better* than average!
Law & Order paired with Medium on Sundays come midseason sounds right. I might even put Chuck Sunday at 8 in that situation (Chuck->Medium->Law & Order) to make some room for fall premieres. Anchor Wednesdays with SVU and Mondays with Heroes. That’s one hour each on Monday and Wednesday to premiere a new show or carry over Southland or Kings, and NBC can do whatever they want on Fridays.
But, it seems more likely they’ll cancel either Chuck, Medium, or Law & Order. I also really like Rob’s idea of adjusting Biggest Loser’s length to try and lead into a new 9:00 show. If it doesn’t work, lengthening it to two hours again seems like an easy fix.
oh I don’t view Sunday as a drastic move, but unless I felt strongly shows like L&O and Chuck would see 50%ish 18-49 improvement if moved to another night (Wednesday is often mentioned, but I don’t see Chuck doing much better there, certainly not pushing its demos to upper twos).
it looks like NBC has taken the “Sunday, it’s the new Friday!” tack with the winter (Dateline, movies, the trade press viewed “dumping” Kings there as a sign that NBC didn’t think Kings was as good as Southland).
If you’re NBC it seems there’s little risk in replacing what are fairly marginal performers like Chuck and L&O — if whatever NBC replaced them with don’t seem hit bound or perform even worse, NBC can either expand Jay Leno to two hours some nights, have “The Today Show, Tonight” or throw on Deal or No Deal/Mommas Boys/Superstars of Dance style programming and declare defiantly: “We care about margins! We said we don’t care about ratings and we meant it!”
I think NBC will use this on Sundays next year:
MID-SEASON
7:00 – Dateline
8:00 – NEW SHOW (or Southland or Kings if it does well)
9:00 – Medium
10:00 – Law and Order
I think minimally we will see NBC possibly pull a CW and order 13 episodes of CHUCK to air midseason if it doesn’t pick up CHUCK for a full season.
Bill, but Chuck wasn’t better than NBC’s Mon-Thursday average, and NBC is becoming sort of CW-esque in that way
I think it’ll probably be:
Mon: Tues: Wed: Thurs: Fri
Chuck Deal or No Deal Deal or No Deal Earl Biggest Loser
Heroes Southland L&O SVU P&R Biggest Loser
Office
30 Rock
I think L&O will be cancelled as will Knight Rider and Life. Medium will be a mid season pick up again and any other new shows will premier mid season. Another option could be to pick up Chuck and Heroes for 13 eps and see how they go and have L&O and Medium ready to replace it. The Monday night line up across the networks is too strong for NBC to premiere new shows and I think Biggest Loser could work on Fridays.