we don't focus on development much, but it's useful sometimes in cystal ball gazing about renewals. Broadcasting & Cable has a post on FOX's development plans:
The Fox executives talked about how they want to have a truly year-round schedule and use their strongest shows such as House and American Idol to help launch newcomers.
One agency executive said Fox is looking to skew more female with a handful of shows including one called Maggie Hill, about a physician with psychiatric problems. The show is said to have the feel of former Fox hit, Ally McBeal.
The Fox executives suggested that J..J. Adams’ Fringe, which began slowly but is now a hit, will most likely return to the schedule as will Tim Roth-fronted drama, Lie To Me. - read the rest on broadcastingcable.com
The primary takeaway for me is with that all the shows the network is discussing, and trying to pick up some younger females, despite the rampant speculation that exists (and will continue to exist until fall schedules are anounced) around Dollhouse and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, the prospects for both shows seemed even a bit grimmer than just looking at the numbers.
Well, maybe if they had given dollhouse an AI lead in like they did to Lie to Me it would’ve been a hit. Lie to Me is already bleeding 13 million viewers and over half of the key 18-49 demo! I can’t see it working in the Fall unless it gets the Monday night House lead in. As for leaning more toward females, I think they should look at The CW’s recent attempts alongside ABC’s falling figures. And I still can’t see where ‘Til Death fits in to all this.
Every year some network talks about a “truly year-round schedule”, and every year, summer is still nothing but reality and reruns. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Last summer showed an decrease in vacations and driving due to the high gas prices. This summer will probably have a similar, but much larger decrease due to the bad economy. Good television shows during the summer would be in all television networks interest over the next couple years.
We might even see a better trend emerge than the half season slaps in the face we get from the big shows right now.
Dollhouse is on a Friday with no lead-in. What were they expecting?
I really hope Fringe survives the 8-week hiatus.
Sean Gillen: It FOX 3 years of massive AI support to grow House into what it is.
Fringe and LtM are averaging about the same numbers as House did when it was after AI the first time.
Even with AI’s help Dullhouse would never pull over 10 million viewers.
I am not sure where to place ‘Fringe’ in the fall. ‘Lie to Me’ needs that ‘House’ lead-in and it might actually be able to use it. Hmm, FOX, let us see what you are likely to do:
Monday
8:00 – ‘House’
9:00 – ‘Lie to Me’
Tuesday
8:00 –
9:00 – ‘Fringe’
Wednesday
8:00 – ‘Bones’
9:00 –
Thursday
8:00 –
9:00 – ‘Kitchen Nightmares’
Friday
8:00 – ‘Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?’
9:00 – ‘Don’t Forget the Lyrics!’
Saturday
8:00 – ‘Cops’
9:00 – ‘America’s Most Wanted’
Sunday
7:00 – ‘The OT’
8:00 – ‘The Simpsons’
8:30 – ‘American Dad!’
9:00 – ‘Family Guy’
9:30 – ‘The Cleveland Show’
Hmm, where is ‘Sit Down, Shut Up’ going to go if it is renewed?
The cancellations of ‘Prison Break’ and ‘Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles’ have really opened up the schedule.
It does not look like FOX’s “plan” to launch new shows is going to work out unless they move ‘Lie to Me’ away from ‘House’, but I think that it would benefit from that lead-in. FOX cannot even use ‘Kitchen Nightmares’ to launch something because it would fall into Thursdays at 9:00, which is where a new show cannot compete. And they cannot use ‘Fringe’ as a lead-in because it is lead-in dependent. But they can use ‘Bones’, so there is a bright spot.
And, of course, I encourage FOX to stop being such cheaters in the ratings race and actually program at 10:00.
TomSD, ‘Fringe’ and ‘Lie to Me’ are not getting what ‘House’ was after ‘American Idol’.
By the time ‘House’ had aired its third episode after ‘American Idol’, it was just a few thousand short of 15 million with 52% viewership retention and it continued to grow to over 18 million by the end of March with 69% retention. When ‘Fringe’ aired its fourth episode after ‘American Idol’, it had sunk to 39% retention and high 9 millions, posting its worst post-’American Idol’ showing yet and it is getting beaten in viewers (even when it is a repeat) and the key sales demographic by a show that is launched out of a show that battles ‘American Idol’. ‘Lie to Me’ is getting beaten by a fifth season serialized drama in viewers and the key sales demographic and again, has that massive lead-in. After four post-’American Idol’ broadcasts, ‘Lie to Me’ has sunk to a record low 45% retention and low 11 millions. Now, ‘Fringe’ is on hiatus and FOX has decided that it would rather take down ‘Lost’ than save on of its own (‘Lie to Me’). So, ‘House’ was doing better.
I agree that AI helped House garner the massive ratings since the start. However, House started out with 13 million viewers and then began to gain viewers before peaking at around 19.5. It even managed to BEAT AI in adults 18-49 a couple of times. And House always managed to hold its own for the first 3 or 4 months of the season when AI wasn’t on. All Lie to Me has done since premiering is lose viewers (last airing it lost half of its lead in) and only managed to lose to Lost in the 18-49 and the 18-34 demos. The only way I can see it surviving with AI is to have house as it’s lead in when the new season begins in the Fall.
Not to mention that ‘House’ did not receive the benefit of a ‘House’ lead-in in the fall.
And I forgot that ‘Til Death’ is being renewed, so add that and ‘Sit Down, Shut Up’ to Thursday at 9:00 in the above schedule and move ‘Kitchen Nightmares’ down to 8:00.
Good shout. Although I would prefer Sit Down, Shut up to be on Sundays but The Clevelend show will probably take that slot. I wouldn’t put them up against NBC’s comedy slot. Although that means that they’ll probably go to the FOX deadland that is Friday nights.
Monday: House, New Drama; they will definitely put something new here
Tuesday: Lie To Me, Fringe
Wednesday: Fox is going to try to launch some new comedies, and this is probably the least risky night to do so. Maybe American Dad or Sit Down moves here too?
Thursday: Bones, Kitchen Nightmares
Firday: New Drama, Dollhouse; or the game shows if Dollhouse continues to fade
Sunday: The OT, The Simpsons, Sit Down/AD, Family Guy, The Cleveland Show
Anyone else think 24 should follow Bones on Thursdays next season? It’s on it’s last legs as it is and would probably bring a strong presence on a normally tough night for the network.
Moving ’24′ to Thursdays at 9:00 is a good idea, Justin. Kiefer Sutherland’s contract runs out at the end of day 8 and show runner Howard Gordon has said that the show will likely end there as well (to be followed by a feature film). If it is in its final season, it does not really matter how well it does. It will be able to manage at least a low 3 demo against anything anyway. Besides, ‘House”s lead-in power is not being exercised right now. And ‘Bones’ has proven that it will produce the same solid numbers anywhere on the schedule, so FOX can yank it around again. Place it on Friday or at Sunday at 7:00 in the winter/spring if they have to and run at least 13 orginal episodes in the fall and everything will be fine. Justin, I do not see FOX renewing ‘Dollhouse’. Even though no one expected them to be, its Friday numbers are not great, the game shows are probably pretty cheap and FOX’s winter/spring schedule is crowded enough as it is.
house and fringe/lie to me are not the same thing!!!!!! house is a hit show!!! fringe and lie to me are just very lucky to have a lead in: fringe had house and gained 8 million and 60% retention, and now american idol with 13 milion (the last one episode got 9 milion) and 40-50% retention. lie to me has american idol with 12 milion and less of 50% retention. are these fox’hit show???
If “Sit Down, Shut Up” is renewed? Not even getting into all the endless behind-the-scenes battles with “Sit Down, Shut Up” — or whatever it’s going to be called — I think anybody who’s seen that mess of a pilot presentation knows its chances for renewal are somewhere in the negative numbers.