2/2/09 Update: It's official, Life on Mars Is Canceled.
Life on Mars looks worse every week. Two weeks ago its index was 0.97, now it's 0.90. That's a titanic drop in a season to date average. It looks like it will be canceled. Ugly Betty is more or less maintaining its position. ABC's options for next season may be limited, so Betty might be the best of a bad set of alternatives. Its future may be dependent on how ABC's new spring shows do. At this point, I think it's a toss up.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Cancelled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,600 | 0.61 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,600 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,600 | 0.66 | cancelled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,600 | 0.68 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,600 | 0.71 | cancelled |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,778 | 3,600 | 0.77 | final season? |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,600 | 0.79 | cancelled |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 2,861 | 3,600 | 0.79 | final season? |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,107 | 3,600 | 0.86 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,239 | 3,600 | 0.90 | cancelled |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,600 | 1.00 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 4,269 | 3,600 | 1.19 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,601 | 3,600 | 1.28 | |
| LOST | ABC | 6,440 | 3,600 | 1.79 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 7,016 | 3,600 | 1.95 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,473 | 3,600 | 2.08 |
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Notes:
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Ugly Betty will be back. I’m not even a fan of the show, I just know from several sources that ABC is close to renewing it for another season.
I agree Dan. After this season, the show should be around 65 episodes. I can see ABC ordering 13 more episodes to finish the show up and get more episodes for syndication.
I forgot to add that it may not be in the same timeslot though.
http://www.nydailynews.com/gossip/2009/02/17/2009-02-17_cancellation_becki_newton_says_its_just_.html
According to NY Daily News, Ugly Betty fans have NOTHING to worry about.
If only the NY Daily News was reliable.
If only cast members where reliable. Lets ask Brooke Shields once again about Lipstick Jungle…
I agree that Ugly Betty will be given at least one more season. I will go on record and say that Betty needs to plan its exit after this season.
Samantha Who? only has a strong chance of renewal because of a DWTS lead-in. Take that away and the show tanks.
I guess the Lost audience does not seen an intrest in LOM. Too bad I was hoping they did, but I guess they see LOM as just a retro-cop show which it is but its more than that.
I am hoping for a DVD release of the Orginal UK version of LOM.
Also BBC America is going to air Ashes To Ashes which is a sequel series to LOM UK. However its a 21′st Century Police Woman named Alex Drake that takes the time trip and its to the early 1980′s. She will have to deal with Gene Hunt and company, just like Sam Tyler did.
Although if they do give Betty another season and it holds steady they’ll probably be tempted to give it another season to push it (kicking and screaming) into syndication.
Ashes to Ashes already aired over here (England) and was horrible. I think that the best thing was the relationship between Sam and Gene and with that gone the show tanked.
Ashes to Ashes is a great show. It’s just that you Brits have a hard-on for John Sim that you can’t accept anyone else, especialy a woman, in the lead.
Just so I can get things cleared up a bit here, let’s say Scrubs ISN’T in it’s last year, it’s still dead based on ratings, right? Because it’s been performing horribly this year.
Jesse, Even if this wasn’t “officially” Scrubs final season, it’s doing so dreadfully that it’s got to be its final season.
It seems the spring may have brought LOST to ABC but its just crumpled their defences. Life On Mars is definately dead, its proberly more expensive than Ugly Betty is getting worse.
‘Getting worse numbers’
Ugly Betty just needs a better timeslot!
Sad about Life on Mars its a good show!
Goddamn ABC for mishandling LOM so incredibly. Not that it holds a candle to the original, but it’s not half bad.
And Bill, what about the According to Jim style syndication factor? Scrubs is doing better than it was, and almost definitely internationally and in local markets too (how could it not?).
According to Jim is finally getting canned? About frickin’ time!
I think ABC/AMERICA would of liked Ashes to Ashes more, it just seems more American and would op maybe had more younger viewers! Ashes to Ashes is better then LOM!
I have a controversial suggestion here. Since LOST seems to kill everything that follows it they should air it at 8 and at 9 and 10 air some realityshow
Or just air Lost at 10.
Jack, what do you think ABC could and should have done with LoM? They did fight for it from DEK, cluttered it with well known actors, promoted it big and put it on their strongest night out of GA. I just don’t know whether ABC was in a position to do anything better for the show.
Like I adore Life, but I am not going to blame NBC simply because they aren’t CBS and can’t air it out of NCIS or CSI where everything can succeed.