Privileged ends its season tonight. Say goodbye, it's going to be cancelled. I do think both Everybody Hates Chris and The Game are in some danger of being cancelled, but since I am mystified as to the CW's decision process behind those two shows, I'm rating them no worse than a toss up.
Unsurprisingly to me and the Renew/Cancel Index, the CW has officially renewed Smallville, Gossip Girl, 90210, America's Next Top Model, One Tree Hill and Supernatural for next season.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Cancelled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,050 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,050 | 0.33 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 814 | 1,050 | 0.78 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 905 | 1,050 | 0.86 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 916 | 1,050 | 0.87 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,602 | 1,050 | 1.53 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,604 | 1,050 | 1.53 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1,654 | 1,050 | 1.58 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1,674 | 1,050 | 1.59 | |
| Smallville | CW | 1,898 | 1,050 | 1.81 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Privileged is gone. It is a toss up between Chris and The Game but its likely that if Chris gets cancelled, CW will keep The Game to fullfill syndication needs and maybe pair it with another show.
Privileged is 90% gone but if CW decides to program Sundays and Dawn is still in charge I’m sure thats one straw fans can look to grasp at as a possible silver lining.
The CW is probably one of the hardest to guess. What do they do with Friday and Sundays? What about Reaper? New shows?
We know of i beleive 5 pilots for CW. Melrose Place, GG-spin off, Vampire diaries, light years and something called body politic. IF we assume that melrose and gg are def getting picked up than one would probably go on tuesday and one would go on wednesday with ANTM. The question than becomes what is the theme for Sunday. If they are programming 3 hours than you want shows that go together; same thing for the 2 hours on friday. Hell theoretically CW could get away with not cancelling any of the shows and just rescheduling the shows to work together with the hours available.
Although if the GG spinoff was to be picked up, wouldn’t you put it on after GG? Melrose will be paired with 90210, ANTM and a new show, Smallville/Supernatural and I believe the Vampire Diaries had already been chosen for a Friday night spot and will probably be paired with Everybody Hates Chris and All of Us. That leaves on spot on Wednesday as a lead in for ANTM and Sunday if they don’t sell it or give it back to the Affiliates.
Although if the GG spinoff was to be picked up, wouldn’t you put it on after GG? Melrose will be paired with 90210, One Tree Hill/ANTM, Smallville/Supernatural and I believe the Vampire Diaries had already been chosen for a Friday night spot and will probably be paired with Everybody Hates Chris and All of Us. That leaves Sunday if they don’t sell it or give it back to the Affiliates.
The CW should make Friday an encore night and discontinue its Sunday block and give that back to its affilates.
I wouldnt put GG and the spin off on the same night if i was running the network. They are going to be similar shows run by the same people that are probably going to have the same/similar storylines as GG and putting it on at the same night people would notice quicker.
But look at what happened with Grey’s Anatomy/Private Practice. They moved PP away and it lost half of its viewership. Moved it back and bounced back. I can’t see it going with any other show apart from ANTM (possibly?).
either way could work i mean CW could theoretically even with the pilots have a schedule of
mon gg/gg-spinoff
tues 90210/melrose place
wed OTH/ANTM
thurs smallville/supernatural
fri reaper/vampire diaries (don’t know what diaries is about or what the tone is so unsure if it fits)
sun body politic/privileged/light years
than you only lose the game and chris which is making the WB money through syndication
That’s my thinking, although I’m not too sure how OTH would hold up without the GG lead in.
well if Chad MIchael Murray isn’t a regular as expected it probably won’t matter because it would probably end up being it’s last season. Which for the CW would being horrific if next season they have to replace OTH, Smallville, and Supernatural
I don’t think they would’ve picked OTH up if Chad Michael Murray hadn’t signed on for another season.
well im just going on what Ausiello wrote which was that Murray hasn’t signed on yet but is expected back in some capacity and to me some capacity implies 6-9 episode guest star.
I watched a video the other day with Sophia Bush and she said that none of the stars have signed on to do it yet. I think they’re still discussing money. I think it’s just that CMM is holding out although I can’t see why, If he makes any more gems like ‘House of Wax’ he probably won’t be able to get a job on a straight to dvd movie. I love OTH but I can’t really see a big pile of job offers waiting for him.
This headline is depressing. Privileged deserves a second season, more importantly, a second season on a DIFFERENT network. CW never got this show. I look forward to the day when SV and SN end, then I’ll finally be able to rid myself of Dawn Ostroff’s stupidity.
The CW currently has 8 pilots commissioned or in the process of commissioning. They’ve actually picked up “Living Beautiful,” a drama from Ashton Kutcher about models who live together supposedly based some what on his life early on as a model. That show has a tentative 13 episode deal in the works pilot unseen. Same with VAMPIRE DIARIES.
So there isn’t much room for Warner’s productions. We know they’re getting two, one of which is the new DC title based on Martian Manhunter and an as yet unnamed superhero or team of superheros (Legion is the current front runner).
So that doesn’t leave any room for PRIVILEGED. It also barely leaves room for MELROSE PLACE. LIGHT YEARS is such a horrid idea, I just can’t see that going anywhere. BODY POLITIC on the other hand I can see being picked up if they’re going to get serious about the above 24 demo.
Plus you have REAPER. Then you have GG’s producer promised that if CHUCK gets canceled the CW will pick it up.
There just isn’t room for more teen soap crap.
[i]There just isn’t room for more teen soap crap.[/i]
Oh, so then they’ll be cancelling Gossip Girl and 90210?
How about a Chuck and TSCC combo? I think that’d be pretty cool…
They can’t! It’s getting there! The season finale was awesome. It has to get more viewers after tonight. They just can’t leave it like that. That new Spencer guy from the wedding is certainly going to spin things up. I like them and this show. I knew that this show was having its hard times, but no show can be great. They have to give it another season. Terminator was not doing so good in the first one, and they still gave it another season. They should do the same.