Hi. We're definitely not out to get Dollhouse, Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, or any other show. We're not out to get the fans of any show either. But when we look at the numbers, we don't analyze them with what we hope will happen. We analyze them in a way that tries to predict what will actually happen.
I think there may be some confusion about our current views on Dollhouse, where some people are interpreting our take on Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles as the same as our take on Dollhouse.
In the case of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, what the fans of that show hope will happen is that it will get renewed for a third season. What the numbers indicate will happen is very much out of sync with those fans' hopes. There is no chance Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicle's gets renewed by FOX.
How well the Terminator: Salvation movie does at the box office after TSCC ends its run will not have any bearing on that. Further, it seems doubtful that TSCC would wind up on any other network. There is no chance with its numbers on FOX that it would wind up on The CW, and there seems very little chance that it would wind up on SciFi. But for those who like to latch on to the tiniest little sliver of hope, little chance is more of a chance than no chance at all. Probably not much more. But definitely more.
We understand we can't convince anyone who will not accept the numerical analysis that a show will be canceled, and won't accept it until it's no longer on the air and to quote Bill Gorman, who I run the site with:
if I have learned anything from the experience on this site, it is that hope does indeed spring eternal. There is no chance TSCC survives, but nothing I can say, and no numbers you will read will convince you of that so I'll not try.
This is my experience as well and whether it be Jericho, Dirty Sexy Money, or Lipstick Jungle, (canceled, canceled, and canceled) or several other shows, people who don't want to buy the analysis simply won't buy it. That's OK with us.
Our current take on Dollhouse is a different story than Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. The numbers for Dollhouse haven't been great, the question is, are they good enough? When factoring in the Live+7 DVR viewing numbers, the numbers for the premiere were actually good among 18-49 year olds, at least for a Friday.
I know people want to cling to the increases in live+7 18-49 viewing. But here's the deal: we saw those sorts of huge increases to Lipstick Jungle's 18-49 numbers. No, Lipstick Jungle hasn't been officially canceled. It's just no longer on the air, no longer in production and two of the lead actresses have signed on with other show pilots. I don't need the official press release.
While these 18-49 number increases due to DVR viewing can't hurt any, I'm not optimistic they'll help much either. They certainly won't save Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. But, we have a couple of weeks of additional data. Dollhouse dropped from a 2.0 LIVE+SD (live viewing and DVR viewing the same night the show aired) 18-49 rating in its premiere episode to a 1.6 (if that holds up in the final numbers) last Friday. Even if Dollhouse kept all of its DVR viewers, it's Live+7 rating will still shrink by .4.
I am not tremendously optimistic about Dollhouse's survival chances for a second season. The trend isn't good, the question is whether it's good enough for Fridays. My sense is that Dollhouse will get to air all 13 of its episodes and then be done. But while we're ready to say there's no chance that Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles will be renewed, we're not ready to say the same thing about Dollhouse.
One final note. The rascally rabble rouser who appears in our comments who goes by the moniker of Nick C is not affiliated with TVbytheNumbers. He is a sometimes frequent participant in the comments and we love him because really, love him or hate him, he's always bound to stir up a discussion. I don't always agree with Nick, but whenever he's posted any actual data, the data has been true.
Because he has access to more inside information than we do, he hears things that we don't hear. My sense is that hearing things we don't hear is a good news/bad news situation. The good news is he has access to information that we don't. And when he shares it, we get to hear it too. The bad news is that 18+ months of experience running this site has led me to believe we're better off just sticking with analyzing the numbers rather than listening to what anyone at the networks may be saying.
I'm sure there will be a case where there's a benefit to listening to the chatter, and perhaps Dollhouse will be that case. Right now Nick is much more optimistic for Dollhouse season two based on what he hears than I am based on what I see.
TSCC and dollhouse fans need to grow a pair. I mean seriously, people comment how the shows are performing poorly and they make it out like someone walked out back and shot their dog.
Quit drinking the kool-aid and judge a show fairly. Something most of these two shows fans can’t seem to do. They almost make moonlights fan look normal.
Thanks Jimmy. I’m a girl.
Wait, are you saying T:SCC dosen’t have a chance?
If by chance you’re talking to me (which you probably aren’t), I was just making a stupid remark to Jimmy’s “grow a pair” statement.
Just making conversation.
Rachel P, are you a member of the terminator wiki, or SCS.net?
In that case, you definitely need to grow a pair, Rachel.
Dollhouse and TSCC are doom!
I’ll do my best, Julia.
And no, Thecolours, I’m not. Why do you ask?
Robert, I’m sure you might share my optimism if you had all the numbers. I’m told it’s profitable for FOX. That means FOX TV Studios will want to keep it around, and FOX Broadcasting has nothing better for a Friday. So in that sense it most definitely has a shot.
For the record, if I was to “guess,” I’d say today it’s a 50/50 call. What the show can’t do is drop to a 1.4. It can drop to a 1.5 if it rises back up.
The Whedonesque people just need to repeat the mantra of “it’s not bad numbers,” but remember they aren’t “good,” either. For a Friday they’re above average. Which due to FOX’s situation looks like a renewal is certainly possible.
I figure this week drops to a 1.5, and I only think that because the last episode was so bad. They need to hurry up and get these bad episodes out of the way, and hope it can hold onto a 1.5 or 1.6. If it stays at 1.6, they’re not in a bad situation, because when it gets better word of mouth may move it up. If it starts to trend up, then its chances of renewal are extremely boosted.
I would much rather drink the kool-aid =)
I’m out to get Joss Whedon fans.
. On occasion maybe some FNL fans.
Honestly I think if you can’t face the numbers and shoot the messenger then, well… I guess that nots very nice is it. Plus its not like it would be better just avoiding talking about TSCC or Dollhouse: elephant in the room!!!
But the only, and this is only, reason i hope Dollhouse gets renewed is because Dollhouse fans are sooo funny to watch try to argue a lost argument.
I’m going to post the ‘no hope’ bit of terminator across the internet Robert and you’ll have hundreds of Terminator fans sending furious emails and posts.
You have fun doing that, Fin.
“But the only, and this is only, reason i hope Dollhouse gets renewed is because Dollhouse fans are sooo funny to watch try to argue a lost argument.”
But if it gets renewed than the argument was never lost in the first place. Which would simply mean you lost the argument (assuming you are of the opinion it should be canceled). So really it is a no win situation for you, either you lose the argument and Dollhouse gets renewed, or you win it and all the fun Dollhouse fans go away and you have to hope for another show to come along with diehard fans to fight with
.
Dollhouse will get renewed for one simple reason: if it doesn’t, Fox will have another Firefly on their hands. DVD sales will be good and will show a different picture than the Nielsens.
You know what’s so wrong with the Nielsens? How many Whedonites are among the sample? Could be a few, but could be none. So these ratings might not show the real deal. DVD sales on the other hand, are not estimated based on a sample. They’re raw, real numbers.
The perfect scenario is that they air all the episodes. By the end of them Fox announces that “Dullhouse” is still under consideration as a mid-season replacement for 2009-2010, and then never, ever, mentions it again.
That is enough to keep the whedonites occupied for the next 10 years with the hope that the show is coming back.
Would some please stop calling the show “Dullhouse”? It make you look like a moron.
I’m not a whedon fanboy, but I did enjoy Buffy, and to a lesser degree, Firefly and Angel. I may be a minority here, but I think Dollhouse looks promising and has gotten better each week so far. Sure, the Bodyguard 2 plot was retarded, but Whedon always takes silly or generic plots and wraps them up with the particular show’s style and story arc. See, e.g.: Hyena People, Mom’s Boyfriend is a Robot, Party of Zombies, Fears Come to Life, Arnold and Danny Devito, Everyone Loses their Memory, Somebody Who Can See the Future Sees Their Own Death But is Unable to Stop It, etc. Anyway, I thought all the actual “dollhouse” stuff in the last episode was pretty good, and the show is probably further along than either Buffy or Angel were in their 3rd episodes.
One of the biggest draws of the Whedon shows to date is how self-aware and introspective they are, and Dollhouse certainly seems headed in that direction. And while Joss may be known for “witty banter,” he has also always had moments of excruciatingly bad dialogue and such. Only if you allowed yourself to be engrossed in his little worlds, you didn’t notice.
Unfortunately, imo, the universe of people willing to let themselves go like that was fairly small to begin with, and it looks like he is losing the race against time w/r/t converts. If there is anything working in the show’s favor, I think it’s that Fox executives don’t want to look like a bunch of idiots canceling yet another Whedon show before it plays out — presumably they knew what they were getting into when they gave him another series. Therefore, I think if there is a colorable argument for renewal, they will probably do it.
You know, Nick C., I know you say that what you hear has changed, but it’s been amusing watching your expectations drop, steadily, since the premiere. First it was “2.0 means it’ll be a tough decision for FOX.” Then it was “It can go as low as 1.7 and still be good news for FOX.” Now, “1.5 is still good news.” When it dips to 1.4 and 1.3 will those numbers suddenly be good news as well?
Am I really the only one that thought last week’s episode was the best so far? I’m still only in it for Joss, but last week’s episode gave me a little hope at least!