The ratings for Joss Whedon's Dollhouse have not been good, but Fox's experiment with "Remote Free TV" during the show and its resulting reportedly higher C+3 commercial ratings (what I hear from credible sources, I have not seen the numbers) than would be indicated by its show ratings has its future still hanging in the balance. I'm certain that all 13 episodes of Dollhouse will air this season, so the results of the later shows, and their ratings trend, will matter a lot more than the shows that have already aired.
As for Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles there is no such doubt. It's going to be canceled at the end of the season. It moved to Friday to get a second chance and crashed. There was quite a stir this week when the DVR numbers for the week of the TSCC move to Friday were revealed. Yes, TSCC got a big boost, as Friday shows and 10pm shows often do. But even at its "boosted" levels it still did terribly in the important adults 18-49 demo. Here are the Live+7 18-49 demo ratings for the first week with a Friday airing of TSCC. TSCC numbers are on the order of the crime reality dreck on Saturday, and that was for the first episode, it's Live+SD ratings have fallen since then.
Live+7, Adults 18-49 rating for the week of Feb 9-15
American Idol-WEDNESDAY 10.33
American Idol-TUESDAY 10.12
FRINGE 5.01
Family Guy 4.37
24 4.14
Simpsons 3.49
American Dad 3.13
KING OF THE HILL 2.71
DOLLHOUSE 2.58
COPS 2 2.02
TERMINATOR: SRH CNR CHRON 1.89
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK 1.74
COPS 1.72
KING OF HILL-SUN 7P 1.59
AMER DAD SP-2/15 7:30P(S)-02/15/2009 1.59
40TH NAACP IMAGE AWARDS(S)-02/12/2009 1.4
For those of you inhabiting a dreamland where you imagine I predicted TSCC would be canceled at the end of season one, and then again in January of this year, wake up for a moment while I set the record straight:
Last spring, I predicted that TSCC would come back for a second season. The words I used were "Guaranteed Return".
I never predicted that TSCC would be canceled by January. Last fall, my prediction was always that it would be canceled by May.
The most anyone can point to, and desperate fans have already done so, is that when TSCC was given its "back 9" order this season I commented that I was surprised it had gotten it so early in the process. I still am surprised it happened so early, but not surprised it happened at all.
If you choose, you may return to your dreamland now.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1,723 | 3,530 | 0.49 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,530 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 2,344 | 3,530 | 0.66 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,530 | 0.67 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2,988 | 3,530 | 0.85 | final season |
| American Dad | FOX | 3,590 | 3,530 | 1.02 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 3,810 | 3,530 | 1.08 | final season |
| Bones | FOX | 4,035 | 3,530 | 1.14 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 4,220 | 3,530 | 1.20 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 4,537 | 3,530 | 1.29 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,586 | 3,530 | 1.30 | |
| 24 | FOX | 5,228 | 3,530 | 1.48 | |
| Lie To Me | FOX | 6,008 | 3,530 | 1.70 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,212 | 3,530 | 1.76 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
Prison Break is in its final season.
'Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a sweet deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It's 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I’m a huge fan of Sarah Chronicles (except the last 2 episodes – although they had VERY clever endings – so the payoff was kind of worth it) and even I acknowledge Sarah is over…On the other hand Dollhouse is starting to win me over…but I won’t lose sleep over it if they blow that away too…
My favorite 3 remain…24, CSI and Smallville – So I’m good!!
Though i will miss Sarah & friends – I look forward to the next movie (and the next…….and the next)
Fringe is one of FOX higher rated show, good to know!
from a recent tvguide.com article:
_____________________________________________
Summer Glau and Eliza Dushku are turning a lot more heads than evidenced by the next-day Nielsens.
Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, in fact, is currently enjoying the biggest boost of any network show — a 36 percent jump in adult demos — from Live+7 DVR data, which factors in playback within the first week after a program airs.
Similarly, Dollhouse gains 30 percent from time-shifted viewing.
The moral here: Never underestimate the power of freeze-frame.
The performance of both shows has been under scrutiny recent weeks, as Fox’s plan to resurrect “Sci-Fi Friday” appeared to fall on typically culty ears, with both Terminator and Dollhouse hovering around the 4 million viewer mark.”
_________________________________________
Does this make any sort of difference?
@ sam
when was the last time fringe aired a new episode though. I think about a month…. Are they taking a hiatus or have they called it quits for the season?
DJM, Fringe will be back April 7. There are 8 episodes left in the season.
The last episode of Fringe was aired on Feb. 10 and the next one airs on April 7 next month.
grr_argh, note the Live+7 18-49 DVR numbers in the post. TSCC’s are still terrible, in the range of the Saturday crime reality shows. It’s dead.
Not sure I’m completely sold on Dollhouse (though it’s increasingly finding it’s way). However, I love the concept of telling me exactly how long it will be till the next commercial. If I know it’s 60 seconds till it starts again I don’t bother fast forwarding.
J.
I know Fridays are a special case, 0.49 and 0.66 for TSCC and Dollhouse are way, way low, even for a Friday! Lie to Me is holding up very well in this index.
Fellow Terminator fans, you MUST check this out! Originally shown to me by Noah over at the Mondays ratings post.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid14602162001?bclid=14539929001&bctid=14624346001
You can see my initial reaction there after seeing the footage, but I’ll repeat it here cause it deserves it:
THAT LOOKS FREAKIN’ AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!
Okay, looks like I’m thankfully gonna be satisfied with these final episodes.
Thank you Josh Friedman & co! More seems to be happening in these final six episodes than has happened all season, and it’s lookin’ TIGHT!!!!!!
Okay, that is all.
i love dollhouse and hope the ratings can improve and it gets another season!
Those 2 shows are gone
DEFO!
One small thing here. Can you please change your colour scheme for tracking shows? For folks who are red/green color blind it’s impossible to see work out the tracking even though I could probably guess! Personally reckon that Dollhouse will do well to go beyond its initial run. I wonder if it will even get through the run.
You know, looking at Dollhouse’s demos, it isn’t crazy to think it could come back next season if it could hold on to what it has now. Nick C is probably right on the nose about FOX making money on it. It’s cheap, they own it, and it’s on Friday nights. It would not be crazy to give it another 13 for next season IF they can hold steady for the rest of the season.
I can’t see DH ever being a big success, but networks are willing to be patient these days with shows that are profitable. There are so many holes all over the map, for all of these networks, that it’s worth it to plug up a small leak like Friday with whatever will stick and make money, while you then invest your time and energy on the real moneymaker nights elsewhere.
TV’s changing in all sorts of unexpected ways. DH getting renewed at these numbers would be another one for the books, but it can’t be called crazy anymore.
Hell, if Firefly had premiered in this day and age, and if it had run in order, it almost certainly could have made it to a full season, and maybe even to a second. Almost makes me think this lowered bar is going to be a good thing. If networks CAN’T get huge ratings for anything anymore, then they wouldn’t have to program to the lowest common denominator any longer. Programming might get more diverse, which means more chances to be better.
We shall see.
I have a question: Why haven’t the numbers of The Simpsons changed since the last index? They aired a new episode and I hope the number went up a little since then.
Colorblind, every show in red has something written in the status column. Every show in yellow has something written about it in the post copy above, but nothing in the status column. Shows that aren’t mentioned in the copy (except those I specifically say are safe) with nothing in the status column are green. Now that you know the code, you don’t need the colors.
Dennis, Good question. I checked my spreadsheets and the Simpsons 18-49 season average was unchanged week to week while, as you say, it added its 16th airing of the season. The last episode must have been dead on its previous 18-49 average. (which I cannot verify since we don’t get final 18-49 numbers for individual airings)
As for its Index number, since Fox 18-49 average will not change (since as I write in the post “Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol.”) its Index stayed the same.
I think Dollhouse is great, but I don’t expect it to come back next season. As long as it completes its 13 episode run and doesn’t leave us hanging, I will be happy.
Bill/Dennis: we *did* get 18-49 finals for The Simpsons for the week (it was in the top 25, but at #22 didn’t make the top 20). they were indeed very close to the season average with 4.229 million.
Thanks, that explains everything.