Flashpoint's numbers look terrible, but its costs are shared and my guess is that CBS will be very forgiving in that 9pm Friday time slot. Little change to the situation with the rest of CBS shows this week. The Unit will still certainly be canceled. Of the three weak comedies New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Worst Week at most one will escape being canceled, and I give the best odds to Christine by a hair over Gary.
I think Cold Case still is in danger of cancelation, but with an improvement trend I now like the chances for Without A Trace. With both so close to the line, it's impossible to be sure. Look for them on the bubble in April. 3/3 Update: With the quote from Moonves below, there is no way that both CC and WAT are canceled. In fact, I'd say that the chance that one of them gets canceled is now a toss up. Will keep Cold Case in the orange, but it's prospects just got better.
3/3 Update: CBS chief Les Moonves says “CBS Only Has Room For 3 or 4 New Shows Next Season”.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EX LIST, THE | CBS | 2,443 | 3,860 | 0.63 | cancelled |
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 2,661 | 3,860 | 0.69 | |
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,720 | 3,860 | 0.70 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 2,921 | 3,860 | 0.76 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2,928 | 3,860 | 0.76 | |
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 3,074 | 3,860 | 0.80 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,344 | 3,860 | 0.87 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,439 | 3,860 | 0.89 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,582 | 3,860 | 0.93 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 3,773 | 3,860 | 0.98 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 3,836 | 3,860 | 0.99 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,356 | 3,860 | 1.13 | |
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 4,593 | 3,860 | 1.19 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,631 | 3,860 | 1.20 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 4,724 | 3,860 | 1.22 | |
| Mentalist, THE | CBS | 4,764 | 3,860 | 1.23 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 4,851 | 3,860 | 1.26 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 4,869 | 3,860 | 1.26 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,194 | 3,860 | 1.60 | |
| CSI | CBS | 6,417 | 3,860 | 1.66 |
-
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The New Adventures of Old Christine: CBS has tried to create a second "comedy block" this season on Wednesday by moving Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS's worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
Worst Week got the best slot in CBS's lineup for a new comedy, but has performed just below average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Flashpoints numbers may be a bit deceiving since they reflect 3 reruns and only 5 original episodes.
I agree with Holly.
3 repeat broadcasts and 5 new episodes. That can gun the works.
Also CBS wants to partner up with CTV out of Canada with another cop show.
I DARE CBS to cancel The Unit! I DARE them! Is The Unit CBS’s most hated series?
How can Cold Case be “IN DANGER” while Ghost Whisperer & Numb3rs are “SAFE”? CC has more 18-49 VIEWERS & can perform well in just about ANY 9pm AND 10pm slot among 18-49 (Sun 8/9/10; Mon 10; Tue 8/9/10; Wed 8/9/10; Thu 10; Fri 8/9/10; sat 8/9/10). Can GW & Numb3rs do the same?
If Flashpoint continues to skew older, will be permantly become a summer series? Flashpoint is TRASH.
WAT is NOT in danger of being canned.
Preliminary Sked (2009-2010)
SUN
7 60 MINUTES
8 NCIS: LEGEND
9 COLD CASE
10 ELEVENTH HOUR/ A Marriage (MARCH)
MON
8 THE BIG BANG THEORY
8:30 Things A Man Should Never Do Past 30
9 TWO AND A HALF MEN
9:30 HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
10 CSI: MIAMI
TUE
8 NCIS
9 The Good Wife
10 CSI: NY
WED
8 CRIMINAL MINDS
9 GARY UNMARRIED/ At Last (MARCH)
9:30 Good Girls/ THE NEW ADVENTURES OF OLD CHRISTINE (MARCH)
10 WITHOUT A TRACE
THU
8 House Rules
8:30 Accidentally On Purpose
9 CSI
10 THE MENTALIST
THU
8 SURVIVOR (DEC)
9 CSI
10 THE MENTALIST
FRI
8 GHOST WHISPERER
9 NUMB3RS/ Back (MARCH)
10 THE UNIT
SAT
8 Half A Heart
9 Confessions of A Contractor
10 Back
SAT
8-11 COMEDY REPEATS (MARCH)
“That can gun the works.”
I mean Gum the works.
@a, Ghost Whisperer & Numb3rs are Friday night shows. And as it says in the chart:
“Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.”
a, With all due respect, that schedule is NEVER going to happen.
a, as I write in the post, Friday shows are judged differently, they need not do nearly as well as Sun-Thurs shows.
Flashpoint should be given credit, its performed a lot better than The Ex List and Moonlight, not to mention has retained most of its Ghost Whisperer lead in. Flashpoint shouldn’t be in any danger. The Unit an Worst Week are gone, Eleventh Hour and Gary Unmarried are likely gone too. Christine is on the bubble but probably will return.
a your not realistic.
I see the Monday night lineup unchanged. HIMYM might get the 8:30/9:30 slot but so can Big Bang Theory. It also depends if CBS finally commits to Rules of Engagment.
CSI:NY and Without a Trace are not switching nights.
Sitcoms in the middle of the Wednesday night lineup??? Not going to happen.
The Mentalist might be moved but I don’t see it on 9/10 Thursday nights. The NCIS spinoff would likely to be on Tuesdays but than again Sunday may not be so bad.
No first run sitcoms on Thursday either…Survivor is still king.
Placing The Unit on Fridays. You really love this show “a” I watched it myself for awhile…but I get tired of them switching between the men and the women. Focus more on the men. Nope and its losing ground. Numb3rs will be back for one more season and Ghost Whisper will be back as well.
Repeats of sitcoms on Saturday??? Forget it…they will stick to the crime dramas and 48 Hours Mystery.
Sundays…that NCIS spinoff might go their, The Mentalist might go their, but I doubt The Unit will be their this fall. For sure Cold Case and Amazing Race will be on CBS Sunday night…and 60 Minutes.
As for Eleventh Hour I could see that show going to Sunday nights after Cold Case in the 9/10 slot.
“Flashpoint should be given credit, its performed a lot better than The Ex List and Moonlight, not to mention has retained most of its Ghost Whisperer lead in. Flashpoint shouldn’t be in any danger.”
Flashpoint makes it because its co-produced by CBS and Canada’s CTV. They share the cost. Flashpoint is also doing very well in Canada.
Are you sure Worst Week is done?
David, I will admit that for Worst Week I am taking published accounts of CBS’s dissatisfaction with its performance in that plum time slot into account. Still, I am not certain it is done, but there is no way that CBS keeps all 3 of those marginal comedies, and I think WW is the least likely to survive.
If any show deserves a break it is The Unit. Only a new episode airs once or twice a month. And all fall it doesn’t ususally start until 10:30pm because of football and many people will not stay up that late. And then we have the special Sunday night movies and award shows that preempt it.
The Unit is a great show and deserves better. How can you get accurate readings when this is happening continuous!
Worst Week looks pretty expensive to produce – single camera, lovely cinematography. I’d hire the DP in a second. The writers, not so much.
Worst Week actually feels like it belongs on premium cable. Throw in regular nudity and the occasional sex scene, and it’s perfect for HBO.
CBS has invested a lot in building the NAOC brand, and the show often does unusually well in reruns. It’s perfect for syndication on Lifetime, so I’m anticipating at least a half season order for renewal.
Gary Unmarried, well, someone should give this show a shot. It’s probably done for, but an ABC pickup wouldn’t exactly be shocking either.
christine will get a 3rd season in the slot it deserves…..i think
4th season****
I’ve been meaning to watch Flashpoint, but haven’t had a chance yet. I do think the seemingly random rerun episodes had a negative impact here.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/03/03/moonves-cbs-only-has-room-for-3-or-4-new-shows-next-season/13920
demonhog, you beat me too it! Now in the main post as well.