3/5 Update: NBC Exec: HeroesDefinitely Back For Fall
Heroes is way down from the heights of its earlier seasons. Heck, it's way down from earlier this season. Fans are worried that the shows big budget might cause it to be canceled. I don't buy it. I think NBC's scripted line up is just in such utter shambles that NBC will somehow work out the numbers to bring Heroes back. It might come back with a big budget cut, and may not look like the current show, but I think it will be back.
Friday Night Lights will escape cancelation only through the continuing largesse of DirecTV or some other sugar daddy, its ratings are terrible. Life & Knight Rider look certain to be canceled. Kath & Kim didn't have a bad start, but now it's sinking and looks like a goner. Despite lots of worried fans out there, Chuck still looks good for renewal. Law & Order is right on the edge. I'm guessing history and the Dick Wolf mojo keep it alive.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,167 | 3,310 | 0.35 | finished |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1,832 | 3,310 | 0.55 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,310 | 0.59 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 2,354 | 3,310 | 0.71 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,405 | 3,310 | 0.73 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,310 | 0.80 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2,878 | 3,310 | 0.87 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,989 | 3,310 | 0.90 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,343 | 3,310 | 1.01 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,347 | 3,310 | 1.01 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 3,648 | 3,310 | 1.10 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,096 | 3,310 | 1.24 | final season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,184 | 3,310 | 1.26 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,511 | 3,310 | 1.36 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,218 | 3,310 | 1.58 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,280 | 3,310 | 1.60 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Friday Night Lights. Even for Friday night, those numbers are turn out the lights awful. But last season, DirecTV pulled out its checkbook and the show continued for another season. If DirecTV (or someone else) is inclined to do it again, the numbers may not matter at all. If they're not inclined to write the check again, the show's certain to be cancelled at the end of this season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
HURRAY
my prediction: life, friday night lights, kath & kim, knight rider are all as good as dead. chuck l&o and heroes all make it to fall, but perhaps one or two are saved as november fill-ins (in case nbc’s fall 09 is as bad as their fall ’08) or as mid season replacements.
Keep it up Chuck!!
YOWZA!!!
Chuck’s in the green baby!
I just can’t get into Chuck. A lot of posters like the show. Granted I liked the premice of the show but their are other shows I am more intrested in and that includes Heroes. They should plan their exit next year and with any more volumes they are able to write.
Network TV may not be able to have such shows like Heroes or Chuck in the comming years…their will be scripted shows but they will have to appeal to broad audiences.
Is that a bad thing…it depends on what shows you like.
I think your right Don… networks like NBC or the CW can’t really get away with having diehard-only shows.
Next week the return of “Dancing With the Stars.” That will put some aches in NBC for sure…and a bit of aches in me too.
Looking good for Chuck. Even with a drop in their 18-49 average, NBC fell even more. And after this weeks episode increase in their demo numbers, their index number should go up next week.
Great to hear positive news on Chuck. Great writing, great characters. There’s nothing like the Jeffster.
Count me in as a card carrying member of the Nerd Herd.
J.
folks, I encourage you to remember that the index is a RELATIVE measure (relative to overall NBC performance, in this case). Without Sunday Night Football, the overall average has been sliding. Even Knight Rider picked up a tick in the index week over week and it didn’t even air!
Yeah, I’m definitely one of those worried Chuck fans. I just really don’t want to get my hopes up (but I find they’re getting up there, anyway.)
Indeed, the surest way to increase your relative performance on NBC now is to stay off the air!
Edit: But it was the same last year.
Chuck fans might not need to worry any longer. If the show can stay ahead of My Name Is Earl in the index, there’s a chance that NBC doesn’t renew any of Earl/Kim/Parks and gives the 8PM slot on Thursdays to Chuck. Wouldn’t be a bad fit since it’s a drama/comedy.
I’m guessing Earl gets renewed, and probably Parks, too – Amy Poehler and Rashida Jones are probably going to pull in a lot of viewers. Though I agree, Chuck would fit well on Thursdays. (Or any night – pleeease, NBC, just give it a night! And preferably not Friday. But I guess I shouldn’t be picky.)
I don’t see Chuck getting cancelled, it seems to have a solid fanbase and any drop in numbers is because the audience as a whole has dropped due to TS, I’d say. Life and ath & Kim are goners to be sure, but everybody can see that, and from what I’ve been reading everywhere Knight Rider is already gone. NBC has been calling the next episode in their current promo the series finale, no longer the season finale.
That spells doom for Knight Rider, for sure.
Bill, you just made my week with the renewal index for Chuck. Thank You
Wow this tell you how bad is NBC doing, with a show like Heroes getting mediocre ratings is almost in the top of the list.
Note that the only ‘Heroes’ repeat that has aired this season was on a Saturday, so it did not bring down the average, whereas ’30 Rock’ and ‘Law & Order’, etc. have been playing repeats in their timeslots. If not for the repeats, ‘Law & Order: Special Victims Unit’ would likely be just a few points behind ‘Heroes’ in the ~1.50′s.
Is Merlin still going to air on NBC?
Just finished watching the Biggest Loser on NBC and they had a promo for Knight Rider’s episode tomorrow night. The called it the very last episode of the series, said it was the Series Finale. Has Knight Rider been officially axed by NBC?