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Heroes Likely To Work Out The Numbers

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March 3rd, 2009

3/5 Update: NBC Exec: HeroesDefinitely Back For Fall

Heroes is way down from the heights of its earlier seasons. Heck, it's way down from earlier this season. Fans are worried that the shows big budget might cause it to be canceled. I don't buy it. I think NBC's scripted line up is just in such utter shambles that NBC will somehow work out the numbers to bring Heroes back. It might come back with a big budget cut, and may not look like the current show, but I think it will be back.

Friday Night Lights will escape cancelation only through the continuing largesse of DirecTV or some other sugar daddy, its ratings are terrible. Life & Knight Rider  look certain to be canceled. Kath & Kim didn't have a bad start, but now it's sinking and looks like a goner. Despite lots of worried fans out there, Chuck still looks good for renewal. Law & Order is right on the edge. I'm guessing history and the Dick Wolf mojo keep it alive.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects.  Here are the others:

Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
CRUSOE NBC  1,167  3,310 0.35  finished
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS NBC  1,832  3,310 0.55  
LIPSTICK JUNGLE NBC  1,969  3,310 0.59  canceled
LIFE (WED) NBC  2,354  3,310 0.71  
KNIGHT RIDER NBC  2,405  3,310 0.73  
MY OWN WORST ENEMY NBC  2,636  3,310 0.80  canceled
KATH & KIM NBC  2,878  3,310 0.87  
Law And Order NBC  2,989  3,310 0.90  
MY NAME IS EARL NBC  3,343  3,310 1.01  
CHUCK NBC  3,347  3,310 1.01  
MEDIUM NBC  3,648  3,310 1.10  
E.R. NBC  4,096  3,310 1.24  final season
30 ROCK NBC  4,184  3,310 1.26  
Law And Order:SVU NBC  4,511  3,310 1.36  
HEROES NBC  5,218  3,310 1.58  
OFFICE NBC  5,280  3,310 1.60  

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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.

Notes:

Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.

Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.

Friday Night Lights. Even for Friday night, those numbers are turn out the lights awful. But last season, DirecTV pulled out its checkbook and the show continued for another season. If DirecTV (or someone else) is inclined to do it again, the numbers may not matter at all. If they're not inclined to write the check again, the show's certain to be cancelled at the end of this season.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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