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Could Reaper Be Renewed?

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Written By

March 10th, 2009

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after March 17, 2009 click here to see the latest list.

As badly as Reaper premiered last Tuesday, if it can hold those ratings, and it has the advantage of airing without repeats this spring, its premiere ratings were above average for the CW and it stands a good chance of being renewed.

I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.

CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK'S SCRIPTED SHOWS:

ABC: With Ugly Betty Coming Back, And Life On MarsCanceled, We Wait

CBS: The Unit & Worst Week Are Goners, But What About Christine?

CW: Reaper’s A Keeper If It Can Hold Its Premiere Audience

Fox: Lots of Questions About Dollhouse, One Certainty

NBC: Heroes Coming Back, But Don’t Tell That to Chuck Fans
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UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS

For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, I don't worry about predictions, but here is the data for reference.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index
IN HARM'S WAY CW  355  1,030 0.34
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P FOX  1,491  3,530 0.42
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC  1,453  3,280 0.44
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS  1,778  3,850 0.46
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P FOX  1,646  3,530 0.47
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS  1,856  3,850 0.48
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX  1,763  3,530 0.50
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC  1,722  3,280 0.53
WIFE SWAP ABC  1,924  3,580 0.54
48 Hours Mystery CBS  2,136  3,850 0.55
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX  1,984  3,530 0.56
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC  2,029  3,580 0.57
HOWIE DO IT 8:30 NBC  1,894  3,280 0.58
Dateline FRI NBC  1,942  3,280 0.59
Dateline SUN-7PM NBC  1,975  3,280 0.60
HOWIE DO IT 8P NBC  1,984  3,280 0.60
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC  2,175  3,580 0.61
Supernanny ABC  2,197  3,580 0.61
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX  2,184  3,530 0.62
COPS FOX  2,195  3,530 0.62
HOMELAND SECURITY USA ABC  2,336  3,580 0.65
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS  2,515  3,850 0.65
13 - FEAR IS REAL CW  705  1,030 0.68
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX  2,446  3,530 0.69
COPS 2 FOX  2,541  3,530 0.72
MOMMA'S BOYS NBC  2,369  3,280 0.72
20/20-FRI ABC  2,636  3,580 0.74
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX  2,645  3,530 0.75
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC  2,512  3,280 0.77
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC  2,607  3,280 0.79
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC  2,854  3,580 0.80
Kitchen Nightmares FOX  2,832  3,530 0.80
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC  2,952  3,580 0.82
SUPERSTARS OF DANCE NBC  2,874  3,280 0.88
PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO ABC  3,148  3,580 0.88
STYLISTA CW  988  1,030 0.96
Amazing Race 14 CBS  3,740  3,850 0.97
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC  3,572  3,580 1.00
60 Minutes CBS  3,901  3,850 1.01
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST FOX  3,832  3,530 1.09
Amazing Race 13 CBS  4,180  3,850 1.09
TRUE BEAUTY ABC  3,922  3,580 1.10
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC  4,586  3,580 1.28
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC  4,260  3,280 1.30
Biggest Loser 6 NBC  4,329  3,280 1.32
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP FOX  4,819  3,530 1.37
APPRENTICE 8 NBC  4,634  3,280 1.41
SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS CBS  5,495  3,850 1.43
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS  5,543  3,850 1.44
BACHELOR, THE ABC  5,245  3,580 1.47
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC  5,369  3,580 1.50
HELL'S KITCHEN FOX  5,336  3,530 1.51
Biggest Loser 7 NBC  5,056  3,280 1.54
Dancing with the Stars ABC  5,789  3,580 1.62
OT, THE FOX  5,772  3,530 1.64
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC  5,578  3,280 1.70
AMERICA'S Top Model - 6 CW  2,355  1,030 2.29
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW  2,564  1,030 2.49
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC  8,533  3,280 2.60
American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX  12,917  3,530 3.66
American Idol-TUESDAY FOX  13,029  3,530 3.69

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

 
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