As badly as Reaper premiered last Tuesday, if it can hold those ratings, and it has the advantage of airing without repeats this spring, its premiere ratings were above average for the CW and it stands a good chance of being renewed.
I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.
CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK'S SCRIPTED SHOWS:
NBC: Heroes Coming Back, But Don’t Tell That to Chuck Fans
UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, I don't worry about predictions, but here is the data for reference.
|PROGRAM||Net||STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)||Network Avg. STD 18-49||Renew/ Cancel index|
|IN HARM'S WAY||CW||355||1,030||0.34|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P||FOX||1,491||3,530||0.42|
|AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS||NBC||1,453||3,280||0.44|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P||CBS||1,778||3,850||0.46|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P||FOX||1,646||3,530||0.47|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD||CBS||1,856||3,850||0.48|
|SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER||FOX||1,763||3,530||0.50|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI||NBC||1,722||3,280||0.53|
|DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS||FOX||1,984||3,530||0.56|
|SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME||ABC||2,029||3,580||0.57|
|HOWIE DO IT 8:30||NBC||1,894||3,280||0.58|
|HOWIE DO IT 8P||NBC||1,984||3,280||0.60|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8P||FOX||2,184||3,530||0.62|
|MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD||CBS||2,515||3,850||0.65|
|13 - FEAR IS REAL||CW||705||1,030||0.68|
|AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK||FOX||2,446||3,530||0.69|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P||FOX||2,645||3,530||0.75|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2||NBC||2,512||3,280||0.77|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED||NBC||2,607||3,280||0.79|
|AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS||ABC||2,854||3,580||0.80|
|SUPERSTARS OF DANCE||NBC||2,874||3,280||0.88|
|PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO||ABC||3,148||3,580||0.88|
|SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL||ABC||3,572||3,580||1.00|
|FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST||FOX||3,832||3,530||1.09|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3||NBC||4,260||3,280||1.30|
|FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP||FOX||4,819||3,530||1.37|
|DANCING W/STARS RESULTS||ABC||5,369||3,580||1.50|
|SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK||NBC||5,578||3,280||1.70|
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.