While I never thought it was in any real danger, the news that Heroes is definitely back for next season, has taken one fan group off the worry beads. But that has been little consolation for Chuck fans. In fact for some it's been negative consolation. Still I think Chuck looks good to return for next season. Although, it will be an interesting fall season announcement for NBC. Removing 5 hours of weekday prime-time for Jay Leno leaves very little wiggle room for marginal shows.
Friday Night Lights will escape cancelation only through the continuing largesse of DirecTV or some other sugar daddy (yes, we read Ausiello too) its ratings are terrible. Life & Knight Rider are certain to be canceled. Kath & Kim didn't have a bad start, but now it's sinking and looks like it will be canceled as well. Law & Order is right on the edge. I'm guessing history and the Dick Wolf mojo keep it alive.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,167 | 3,280 | 0.36 | finished |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1,799 | 3,280 | 0.55 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,280 | 0.60 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 2,287 | 3,280 | 0.70 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,400 | 3,280 | 0.73 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,280 | 0.80 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2,854 | 3,280 | 0.87 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,931 | 3,280 | 0.89 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,327 | 3,280 | 1.01 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,336 | 3,280 | 1.02 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 3,549 | 3,280 | 1.08 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,119 | 3,280 | 1.26 | final season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,231 | 3,280 | 1.29 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,437 | 3,280 | 1.35 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,172 | 3,280 | 1.58 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,314 | 3,280 | 1.62 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Friday Night Lights. Even for Friday night, those numbers are turn out the lights awful. But last season, DirecTV pulled out its checkbook and the show continued for another season. If DirecTV (or someone else) is inclined to do it again, the numbers may not matter at all. If they're not inclined to write the check again, the show's certain to be cancelled at the end of this season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
FIRST!
And let me get this out of the way: WE KNOW!
http://ausiellofiles.ew.com/2009/03/exclusive-frida.html
i agree robert, law and order has been around too long to cancel unless it falls off the fence. l&o has been a midseason replacement twice already, i believe, and it may very well be again next year. and in fact it was supposed to be this current season, but nbc had so bad a fall it came back early in november instead of january. as for FNL, i am sorry but i DO NOT BUY the talk of directv picking it up for one, let alone two, more seasons. i may be horribly horribly wrong, but i just cant comprehend it! then my mind wanders to 8 seasons of according to jim, and logic goes out the window…
I don’t like Heroes. Not because i’m a Chuck fan, but simply because it bored me when I tried to watch it.
With that said, I don’t understand my fellow Chuck-o-holics’ hatred for Heroes. It doesn’t really make sense to me. I don’t see what one show has to do with the other.
Moving on:
I am tremendously happy to see Kath and Kim in the orange. Never in my life have I seen a comedy show that’s less funny. Well, maybe Dharma & Greg.
Why does it seem nobody is worried about Earl? I’m freaking out about Chuck, but it’s higher than Earl on the index. Is it that safe despite the numbers?
Love seeing 30 Rock so safe. It helps ease the Chuck pain.
I can definitely see L&O as a mid-season, but with Leno and Football, there really aren’t a lot of open spots for next fall. A few of these renewals may depend on how Kings and Southland do.
i thought i read something somewhere that said nbcis thinking of airing Law And Order UK. if so lame
I don’t get what DTV sees in FNL, but it seems like they’re willing to throw money at this show. Do they even make money?
I’m a huge Chuck fan, but I in now way (and I’m sure a lot of other Chuck fans feel about this also), Heroes’ renewal has no bearing on whether Chuck gets renewed. I never thought Heroes was in trouble (unless it totally falls off a cliff). Let the heroes fans be, let them enjoy their renewal, and hopefully Chuck fans can join them in too soon.
I’m still cautiously optimistic of a Chuck renewal, and this index shows that. It might go down a tad bit because of last night’s episode and a re-run next week, but I believe that last night’s low ratings will be that, a bottom for Chuck and hopefully it can grow from there.
Jesse, NBC has already scheduled five hours with Leno, so there’s less space on the schedule for shows. I can understand the fear fans of one show may have when another show is put on the schedule, making even less room. In addition, in the interview where Heroes is purported to be safe, they talk of pairing it with ANOTHER new show, which would mean Chuck is definitely off of Mondays. Even scarier for Chuck fans.
Julia:
I guess I always sort of assumed Heroes was coming back, so it’s renewal never seemed like a bad omen for Chuck to me.
If Southland or Kings catch on, which I doubt (though if you’d have asked me a few years ago, i’d have told you a show about stars dancing would never catch on, so what do I know?), then Chuck has serious problems. As it stands right now, people should still be worried. Lord knows I am. But I think those two shows more than anything will help determine Chuck’s fate one way or the other.
And DirecTV buying more FNL wouldn’t help either.
Julia,
I thought the article mentioned that the new show would be put in Heroes’ time slot, essentially sharing the the time period (Fall/spring).
julia, you are exactly right. i sympathize with the chuck fans, i dont watch it but have 3 family members that do. i understand that each slot that fills means one less availabe place, but in the end i agree with bill’s statements… i really think this show will be back. however, i would be very surprised if its still paired with heroes.
VYuci, from the original interview:
If the serialized “Day One” goes to series, having an established sci-fi drama like “Heroes” could help the new show in a few ways, including possibly airing as part of the same Monday night block.
Jesse, I’m not saying it’s necessarily logical, but I can certainly understand the feeling.
The article also mentioned this:
“‘Day One’ is a big event and we’re looking at that to come into the ‘Heroes’ spot,” Bromstad said. “It’s right now being looked at as a 13-episode run — something people could commit to and we could make a big splash with.”
If “Day One” does launch in the “Heroes” time period, “One” would get the advantage of its strong sci-fi-established slot for a number of weeks. With a slightly shorter episode order, “Heroes” can then continue its usual pattern of airing with few breaks by virtue of debuting later in the season. A second potential home for “Day One” is on Sundays, she said, where quasi-futuristic “Kings” will premiere March 15.
They also mentioned “if “Day One” does launch in the “Heroes” time period… I guess right now, anything can happen.
IMO, I think NBC may move Heroes to mid-season to air uninterrupted episodes, especially if they have a shorter episode order (18-20). Then I can see “Day One” launching in the fall.
I agree that the shows about to start in the coming weeks will likely have more of an impact than any current shows getting renewals. Even if Friday Night Lights comes back it won’t be until winter/spring again after it airs on DirecTV. If this does pan out though, it might be a good sign that other deals like this potentially could happen with other shows (I hope this doesn’t give irrational hope to Knight Rider fans
) And I’m sure Bill and Rob wouldn’t like it much since it throws a monkey wrench into the renew/cancel index!
Concerning Leno, will NBC give at least half season renewals to 1 or 2 “extra” shows in case Leno tanks and they need quick replacements?? I doubt it would happen but will that possibility be in NBC execs minds when making these decisions? Also, will NBC be able to bump Leno to air specials or 2 hour finales of shows, etc or are they contracted that he has to air 5 nights a week at 10?
Craig S, I think that the downside risk to Leno at 10 is actually pretty small for NBC. The Tonight Show with Leno averaged a demo 1.4 rating at 11:30 last fall. Leno at 10 has *got* to do at least that. My guess is that at *best* it averages twice that once things settle down. NBC cannot expect much more. So they’re looking at a 1.4-2.8 range. That’s actually a pretty small range to be reasonably sure of getting.
As for multiple hours or specials, I have read nothing, but anything seems possible.
You really think it will get average a 2.8?
Holly, did I not write “at *best*”?
I think it averages between a demo 1.4-2.8 rating, yes. That’s a pretty big range for a guess, but a pretty safe one, I think.
Like i’ve mentioned Chuck, Heroes, SVU, Deal, Biggest Loser, Office, Earl, Rock, and Parks will likely land on the fall schedule (Though how NBC will work the shows into there Jay Leno schedule is beyond me) There should be few new shows, but L&O and Medium should be back midseason. What NBC might want to do is go 24 on Heroes and possibly Chuck and hold them till midseason. This may be risky since people could forget about the shows but its possible NBC might consider it.
Bill,
I am a huge Chuck fan, but why does the renewal index for Chuck continue to increase even though the ratings have been steadily sliding?
I really hope that this is not a joke that is being played on all of us.
doug I believe that would be because the index is the shows performance relative to the performance of the network. Chuck may be struggling at the moment…but the network is struggling more.