As badly as Reaper was drubbed by American Idol last Tuesday, the CW collectively has fallen so far that if Reaper can hold onto its premiere audience it's coming back next season. Even with that beating, it was 9% above the CW season average for adults 18-49. Also, it won't air any repeat episodes, boosting its average over shows that do. That might make things tricky if it's a close call. Interestingly, I believe it will air episodes past the end of American Idol this season, so while it has the opportunity to improve late under less competition, the CW will already have announced its fall schedule by then . However, a late charge could boost Reaper into mid-season replacement status.
I have no idea what the CW is thinking about its Friday shows Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. They could both be back or both be cancelled because of the schedule holes the network has to fill. If only one survives, it'll be The Game. Not much to say about Privileged, other than it's not going to be coming back.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,030 | 0.28 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,030 | 0.33 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 805 | 1,030 | 0.78 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 887 | 1,030 | 0.86 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 918 | 1,030 | 0.89 | |
| REAPER | CW | 1,124 | 1,030 | 1.09 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,534 | 1,030 | 1.49 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,550 | 1,030 | 1.50 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1,568 | 1,030 | 1.52 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1,590 | 1,030 | 1.54 | |
| Smallville | CW | 1,817 | 1,030 | 1.76 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
to the chagrin of many, Gossip Girl spin-off (Lily) and Melrose Place currently seem like a lock. Lots of things can change, but until they do, if that’s the case CW will not need any extra shows for the Monday-Thursday lineup.
It will be interesting to see if CW would stick Reaper on Sundays or Fridays and/or use it (as perhaps a mid-season replacement like this year) to put in front of American Idol assuming Reaper’s ratings don’t deteriorate.
I know you don’t usually report on development and the like, but do you recall seeing anything about the CW’s plans for Sunday?
other than Dawn saying in the interview with Hibberd that they weren’t planning to give Sunday night back to the affiliates, nope. But she also indicated the movies were doing well on Sundays — which they kind of were until the Sunday after the report with her saying that ran.
Is it a pipe dream to hope that Chuck might land on the CW if NBC cancels it?
some good off topic news EW is reporting that NBC and DTV are close to giving friday night lights a two season pickup.
Why wouldn’t you post that in the NBC thread, Rupert? Keep it on topic.
in fairness to rupert, there was no new NBC thread when he wrote that though it will be up soon (patience!), and I’ll cut a tiny bit of slack since Chuck on CW is perhaps a legit question for this thread (btw, I personally don’t see it happening, David).
But, I’m with Julia. This should be used to discuss renewal prospects for CW shows! Although every show but Reaper and Privileged has been announced as renewed (or canceled)….
sorry guess i was just a little excited
theres as much a chance of the CW picking up chuck as there is SCI FI picking up Terminator. no chance at all
Be interesting to see what happens to Reaper and is Priviliged definitely “not going to be coming back” because there is no room on CW’s fall schedule or because it’s last episodes were on a downward trend? I ask because it’s at a .89 which is low but not necessarily guaranteed cancellation, so I would think that while it’s not likely to get renewed, it still seems like a bubble show with some sort of chance. Already seeing shows below this index level on other networks returning, so wondering if someone has unofficially heard that it’s a goner.
wasnt Privalaged the show that replaced Reaper to begin with. How did that work out for them. about as good as it did when they replaced Angel with Jack and Bobby. oh the CW and there infinite wisdom amazes me
Craig S, while on other networks a show with an Index of 0.89 might be “on the bubble”, the absolute carnage for the CW on Sunday night lowers its average so much that for them 0.89 isn’t “bubble” its “dead”. That’s also why any slippage at all by Reaper and its gone.
Craig S, Privileged was down a bit this spring (from averaging around 0.9 to averaging around 0.7), which doesn’t seem like a whole lot, but it is enough. Also, while on most networks shows close to the edge have a chance, because Sundays drag down the average (making marginal shows look a bit better on the index), I don’t think that will be the case with the CW.
The only way Chuck is going to get picked up by The CW is through Josh Schwartz and Warner Bros. Dude’s already have two of his shows (GG & Lily) there, so why not have all and make it the Josh Schwartz network? Chuck & Reaper would make a good Friday night combo, in my opinion. But considering The CW’s insistency on W18-34 shows, I think it’s unlikely though there is a possibility.
Thanks Bill and Holly for answering! I forgot about the Sunday night debacle and that it would skew things that much, now I see why Priviliged is very likely to never be seen again and Reaper is more on the bubble than it seems.
Reaper should be renewed. Its one of CW’s better shows and if it is renewed maybe when Smallville ends it can be paired with Supernatural on thursdays. Thats just my 2 cents. Here’s hoping for a renewal. Though I understand that Game and Chris are listed as in danger however CW may use them to start a new comedy block, or at the very least the more expensive and already picked up for syndication, Chris will be axed.
Please comment
CW’s already has new shos ready for fall (Melrose Place Deux and Lily)
I wonder when they are going to air it
As I recall, the renew/cancel index for Reaper last year was 1.06, so the 1.09 is an improvement. The unfortunate thing is that the CW insisted on CW-ising the show with the Sock and step-sister subplot, which is already getting aggravating. I can see borderline fans leaving the show as a result; but can’t really see any 18-34 females replacing them because, if they weren’t watching before, how will they know about this new subplot written in especially for them.
Bill, It is an improvement, but this only includes the first episode and Sundays are worse this year than last.
Bill W, I think the Sock step-sis plot has been quite funny…maybe it’s just me. That one scene where they were tickling each other with her on top, sock starts to pop wood and throws her off the bed…too funny!