With Life on Mars canceled, and Ugly Betty returning next season there is nothing much to see here this week, but have no fear, next week's Index will contain ABC's new spring show Castle.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,580 | 0.61 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,580 | 0.63 | canceled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,580 | 0.66 | canceled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,580 | 0.69 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,580 | 0.71 | canceled |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,603 | 3,580 | 0.73 | final season |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 2,700 | 3,580 | 0.75 | final season |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,580 | 0.80 | finished |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,037 | 3,580 | 0.85 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,111 | 3,580 | 0.87 | canceled |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,580 | 1.00 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 4,028 | 3,580 | 1.13 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,692 | 3,580 | 1.31 | |
| LOST | ABC | 6,364 | 3,580 | 1.78 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 6,590 | 3,580 | 1.84 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,392 | 3,580 | 2.06 |
-
Notes:
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I'm keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Aww, I saw this and got all excited that the NBC index was updated, too. Pretty please do it next? (Though now that I think about it, I’m not so sure I want to know…)
lol, it’s coming. I think they do them in alphabetical order.
Aww, stupid NBC, why can’t you be near the beginning of the alphabet? :p
bill, if samantha who returns with numbers similar or worse than what ugly betty has been getting as of late in the thu. 8pm slot, wouldnt it be fair to label it a bubble show? i think so, but i guess the proof is in the pudding come march26.
Not much to talk about here. Why did ugly betty get renewed and life on mars cancelled. Syndication is a bit off, is it purely the cost to make the shows?
Lost seems out of place on the channel, all the other shows appeal more to women
128, they’re already tired of hearing me question Who’s secured outlook – they will answer that the Index covers past performance only. But ABC has already canceled 50% of the scripted shows they’ve aired this year – Who may survive for lack of anything else.
And yes, this will be pretty boring for the next month+. I suppose we could put down thoughts on their midseason hopes?
Castle – 13 episode second season order.
Unusuals – Not renewed.
Cupid – Not renewed.
Suburbia – Not renewed.
Ted – Not renewed.
Motherhood – Not renewed.
it’s funny that a network that aired only one sitcom all season (samantha who) up until ATJ returned in december, is going to end the season tied with cbs for most sitcoms on their schedule: monday-surviving suburbia, tuesday-according to jim, wednesday-better off ted/scrubs, thursday-in the motherhood/samantha who? Now considering 2 of those are already goners, and 3 havnt even aired, it will be interesting to see how many actually make it to next season, but either way its interesting.
Picking up Tom’s chalange
Castle:DOA
Cupid:DOA
Unusuals:DOA
Suburbia – in the bubble up to the upfronts will replace Samantha Who? as the next ABC hope of having a hit comedy.
Ted – 2 seasons, like Pushing Daisies, one shor twith acceptable numbers, and dead once the novelty wears off.
Motherhood – in the bubble and not renewed because of the reported set drama.
Castle: after dropping to a 3.0 in finals it’s grim, but if it can stay above a 2.5 I think “renewal”. As for all the new sitcoms: suburbia (given the lead in and 9:30 HUT level) will have to maintain a 3.0, while ted, motherhood and samantha can probably get away with 2.5.
Wow…. ABC really does have nothing!
That really is a lot of red… Granted with nearly half their schedule taken with reality shows, there isn’t a lot of room for scripted shows.
Plus, they have six more shows to add to the list. Either they’ll drag down the average and push more into the green, or they’ll be green. (Castle will be green its first week at least.)
i think the amount of red shows is a little decieving since scrubs is ending because it’s the final season and atj’ set has been bulldozed, and both of those shows have two entrys each. thats four red lines for two 30 minute sitcoms!
Julia, while I don’t have high hopes for the new ABC shows (just looking at recent trends) and they may act as a drag on the ABC average, DWTS will act to boost the average. I think overall, the average will likely go up a bit.
Here’s my thoughts, everything on the list in terms of renewals and cancellations are dead on but in terms of new shows
Dramas – With all the failing dramas from the strike season as well as Life on Mars, ABC needs any new drama they can get. There are 3 premiering in the 10pm slot on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Castle: Looks interesting and probably can get boosts from DWTS, which ABC likes and it only competes with CSI Miami. I’ll bet ABC will give this one a second chance. Possibly keep in in the same slot next season.
Cupid: DOA. The original series on ABC did terrible so its likely this one will too. Also its airing Tuesdays at 10 against Without a Trace and SVU, the spot that Eli Stone died in. The episode order was cut twice so that gives you an insight on what faith ABC has in it. It will air all 7 episodes but then its done.
The Unusuals: Could go either way on this. ABC has had trouble with the Wednesday 10 pm slot before when Dirty Sexy Money aired there. ABC usually renews one midseason show anyway and with Castle liekly to be renewed its possible that ABC won’t renew Unusuals. Ill say all episodes will air, but due to the late premiere date, this won’t have a chance.
My best bet is that 1 of the 3 dramas will be renewed, and Castle looks to be in the best shape about now.
Comedies – ABC is really desperate for comedies, since the 05-06 season there comedy lineup as been failure after failure with Samantha Who? as the only exception. ABC has held on to veterans According to Jim and Scrubs long enough and with those shows ending, ABC has 3 new comedies for midseason.
In the Motherhood: I believe this series has the best chance for survival of the 3. For one thing, its paired with Samantha Who? which if it turns out well this season could be done again next year. I believe ABC will use this female-compatible combo again next year no matter how it performs in Ugly Betty’s old slot. If it does better than Betty, even just slightly Motherhood will be given another chance possibly Tuesdays at 8 & 8:30 next year.
Better off Ted: I don’t believe this series will do well at all for several reasons. A) ABC has had trouble with that 8pm slot since Pushing Daisies this fall despite barely any competition and airing Lost repeats didn’t help at all. B) Ted will be airing its first 7 episodes after the already deteriorating Scrubs. If Scrubs averages 4-5 million viewers than the best Ted can hope for is 4 million which is likely to sink further. I think the show looks good but its prospects for renewal don’t.
Surviving Suburbia: This series went from airing on the CW at a time (sundays at 7) where the best it could get was probably 1 million viewers. After the CW dumped its Sunday lineup ABC rescued the show and placed it in its coveted 9:30 slot after DWTS. The series stars Bob Saget in a traditional family type multicamera setup which ABC wishes to return to. The series could go either way and it all depends on retention out of DWTS, but if its good enough than its likely that Suburbia will survive to see 2009-2010. Possibly paired with another multi camera sitcom.
So my guess on these shows are
Renewed: Castle, In the Motherhood
Axed: Cupid, Better Off Ted
Bubble: The Unusuals, Surviving Suburbia
Please comment, agree/disagree, give your thoughts
I hope Castle and the Unusuals are a success, ABC needs a cop drama especially Life on Mars is cancelled which is very sad.
I don’t care about the sitcoms!
Dan, surviving suburbia never actually aired on cw sunday. I think suburbia gets renewed if it can stay above a 3.0
Where is Suburbia going to air?
Initial reports had it getting the Monday @ 9:30 slot.
Thanks Chris. Samantha Who? was getting a 2.8 in that spot, so Suburbia will have to do at least that well.