The Retentionistas* are down on Castle because it loses so much of the Dancing with the Stars audience. Ignore them, Castle looks good for another season if it holds its current 18-49 audience, and it did just fine in its second airing last night.
Note that we have a new color category in the lists this week, Renewal Announced.
*Those who value retention of lead-in audience above all else in comparing show prospects.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| SCRUBS-WED 8PM | ABC | 1,543 | 3,580 | 0.43 | final season |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,580 | 0.61 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,580 | 0.63 | canceled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,580 | 0.66 | canceled |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,445 | 3,580 | 0.68 | final season |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,580 | 0.69 | final season |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 2,542 | 3,580 | 0.71 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,580 | 0.71 | canceled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,580 | 0.80 | final season |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,024 | 3,580 | 0.84 | coming back |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,024 | 3,580 | 0.84 | canceled |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,589 | 3,580 | 1.00 | |
| CASTLE | ABC | 4,010 | 3,580 | 1.12 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 4,045 | 3,580 | 1.13 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,697 | 3,580 | 1.31 | |
| LOST | ABC | 5,893 | 3,580 | 1.65 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 6,590 | 3,580 | 1.84 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,353 | 3,580 | 2.05 |
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Notes:
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I'm keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
hello NBC or wait im sorry ABC cant tell anymore
A renewal guarantee color should be happier than black!
When was scrubs on a Wednesday? I know it is tomorrow (new episodes) but didn’t know about any other airings in that time slot.
abc might have to renew castle anyway as they seem to have only 6 other scripted shows that might be renewed at the moment
It ran repeats there for a couple of weeks before LOST started.
If Ugly Betty is coming back, then Samantha Who? and Private Practice better be back as well.
bill, help! i dont know if im a retentionista or not! on the one hand i do believe retention matters quite a bit, but certainly not above all else. the main gripe i have with the hardcore retentionistas is that they look only at the %! that is far too simplistic. i believe you must take into account two other important factors: time slot, and lead in. first of all, lead in is a huge issue. if you air after a giant show like AI or DWTS, you are not ( or shouldn be) expecte to hold as high a percentage. for example, Castle holding 50% of DWTS would probably work. worst week holding 50% of 2.5Men, however, or 30 rock holding 50% of Office, would be a disaster. also, if private practice was only retaining half of Greys or B&S only 50% of Housewives i have a feeling they may be in trouble. in short, the greater the lead-in, the lower the percentage needed to survive, the lower the number, the greater the percentage needed. secondly, i think time slot also plays a factor. normally, 80% retention would be a good thing, but it didnt save kath & kim (although there were several reasons for its decline). k&k had fairly good retention out of earl, but given earl’s low ratings and k&k’s higher HUT time period, it should actually have been growing, or at least holding 90 or 95%. the same can be applied to worst week. it aired in roughly the same HUT level as 2.5Men and wouldv’e needed numbers closer to Rules of Engagement to suvive. now for shows airing in the 10pm slot, they shouldnt have to have as high a retention % because HUT levels are lower and so too should be the expectations. considering castle’s lower hut level and the fact that dancing is the lead-in… i’d say castle is renewed. so whaddya think bill? am i a retentionista?
LOST is also coming back. I think it’s even more accurate than Ugly Betty. They have the contract already done.
the128boy, Kath and Kim isn’t a good example. Its numbers were a disaster, both in total viewers and the demo.
Michael, you are right, which is why i said there were several factors at play in K&K’s demise. BUT hypothetically if Earl was getting double what it does, and kath and kim was getting double what it was, K&K would STILL be underperforming.
Perhaps i could say, *if* HIMYM was only retaining 80% of TBBT’s demo, it would be in trouble. It would have to be doing 90-95% (or growing, like it is), considering the fact that it’s airing behind a show that it could reasonably be expected to improve on, and is in a higher HUT level.
Ricardo, I have no doubt that Lost will return, but until someone at ABC says its coming back, we’ll keep it as it is.
Even though Samantha Who is currently in the green, I can’t see it getting renewed. It benefited from tremendous exposure by being placed after DWTS earlier in the season but it hasn’t managed to develop a loyal fanbase. Its demos took a huge nosedive after its DWTS crutch was taken away. Unlike Lie To Me, this show just can’t stand on its own.
cdn, I’d almost agree with you, but the fact is SW? couldn’t stand on its own last season either, and it came back. This season with all the blood already on the ABC schedule, I think it’s quite safe.
I think SW?’s chances may depend on how well ABC’s new comedies do. If they can find a couple that aren’t utterly dependent on DWTS, SW? could be gone.
I was hearing that SW is already cancelled.
Bill, but haven’t already said that it will have a 6th season? They already have contract with the studio and everything. They did that so the writers could do a proper end. Isn’t that the same thing as a statement?
Bill, ABC announced LOST would be back through 2010 before we even launched this blog:
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117964371.html?categoryid=14&cs=1
Ricardo, the thing is, that was said a few years ago. It was more a “LOST will not continue past this date” than “LOST will definitely continue until this date.”
Not so much retentionista as still convinced Castle will drop. Life on Mars started more impressive than that and look where it is now, that’s the only problem with having such a big lead in, it can mask the natural drop off after the premiere, because if these are all people coming back for more because the loved it last week, then ‘Go Castle’, but realistically it’s probably more people not being in the room the exact minute DWTS ended.
As well as Lie to me held without Idol, it started out with two episodes over 5 in the demo. Do we really think those were huge fans? Or Idol leftovers.
Castle’s premiere demo rating was ABC’s second worst premiere in the last 2 years, only WMC, on a Friday had a worse premiere, even Carpoolers had a better premiere demo, and Bill you have handled numbers long enough not to make conclusions on one sample point. So far Castle is not dead, it is just waiting for someone to pull the plug.
Had Castle premiered in the first week of the fall season, when Network Avg. STD 18-49 was 5,030, it’s cancellation index would have been 0.79, and you would be calling it dead.