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Kings Not Getting A Permanent Throne

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March 17th, 2009

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after March 24, 2009 click here to see the latest list.

The new NBC series Kings first week’s results point to a very short reign. Mark Graham at New York Magazine said it was planned to be a mini-series. We have had many reports to the contrary. Regardless, the point seems moot. It's not likely to be around more than 13 episodes anyway. Edited on 3/18 to clarify.

I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.

CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK'S SCRIPTED SHOWS:

ABC: Castle Looks Good For Renewal, Ignore the retentionistas

CBS: With So Many Different Shows At Risk, CBS Moves Will Be Most Interesting

CW: Reaper’s Hanging In There

Fox: Verdict Still Out On Dollhouse

NBC: Kings Reign To Be Short
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UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS

For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, I don't worry about predictions, but here is the data for reference.


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index
IN HARM'S WAY CW 355 1,030 0.34
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P FOX 1,352 3,530 0.38
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P FOX 1,539 3,530 0.44
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1,453 3,250 0.45
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS 1,778 3,840 0.46
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS 1,856 3,840 0.48
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 1,763 3,530 0.50
CW SUNDAY MOVIE, THE CW 524 1,030 0.51
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC 1,722 3,250 0.53
WIFE SWAP ABC 1,914 3,580 0.53
48 Hours Mystery CBS 2,126 3,840 0.55
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 1,984 3,530 0.56
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 2,029 3,580 0.57
HOWIE DO IT 8:30 NBC 1,877 3,250 0.58
CHOPPING BLOCK NBC 1,895 3,250 0.58
Dateline SUN-7PM NBC 1,924 3,250 0.59
Dateline FRI NBC 1,941 3,250 0.60
HOWIE DO IT 8P NBC 1,947 3,250 0.60
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 2,175 3,580 0.61
Supernanny ABC 2,188 3,580 0.61
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX 2,184 3,530 0.62
COPS FOX 2,197 3,530 0.62
HOMELAND SECURITY USA ABC 2,279 3,580 0.64
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS 2,515 3,840 0.65
KITCHEN NIGHTMRS-THU 8P FOX 2,362 3,530 0.67
13 - FEAR IS REAL CW 705 1,030 0.68
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 2,441 3,530 0.69
COPS 2 FOX 2,549 3,530 0.72
MOMMA'S BOYS NBC 2,369 3,250 0.73
20/20-FRI ABC 2,629 3,580 0.73
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX 2,645 3,530 0.75
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2,512 3,250 0.77
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC 2,853 3,580 0.80
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC 2,607 3,250 0.80
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 2,832 3,530 0.80
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2,952 3,580 0.82
PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO ABC 3,055 3,580 0.85
SUPERSTARS OF DANCE NBC 2,874 3,250 0.88
STYLISTA CW 988 1,030 0.96
Amazing Race 14 CBS 3,806 3,840 0.99
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 3,572 3,580 1.00
60 Minutes CBS 3,860 3,840 1.01
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST FOX 3,832 3,530 1.09
Amazing Race 13 CBS 4,180 3,840 1.09
TRUE BEAUTY ABC 3,923 3,580 1.10
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 4,559 3,580 1.27
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4,260 3,250 1.31
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 4,329 3,250 1.33
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP FOX 4,819 3,530 1.37
APPRENTICE 8 NBC 4,453 3,250 1.37
SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS CBS 5,475 3,840 1.43
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 5,543 3,840 1.44
BACHELOR, THE ABC 5,245 3,580 1.47
HELL'S KITCHEN FOX 5,218 3,530 1.48
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 5,369 3,580 1.50
Biggest Loser 7 NBC 5,053 3,250 1.55
OT, THE FOX 5,772 3,530 1.64
Dancing with the Stars ABC 6,031 3,580 1.68
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 5,578 3,250 1.72
AMERICA'S Top Model - 6 CW 2,425 1,030 2.35
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 2,564 1,030 2.49
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 8,533 3,250 2.63
American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX 12,844 3,530 3.64
American Idol-TUESDAY FOX 12,935 3,530 3.66

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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

 
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