The new NBC series Kings first week’s results point to a very short reign. Mark Graham at New York Magazine said it was planned to be a mini-series. We have had many reports to the contrary. Regardless, the point seems moot. It's not likely to be around more than 13 episodes anyway. Edited on 3/18 to clarify.
There has been lots of chatter on the site in the last week or so of the type "Well, I hope that will increase X's Index" that I wanted to address. At this point in the season, for the shows that premiered in the fall, their Indexes will change very little. There are lots of airings already built into the averages and new airings can have only a small effect. That, plus at this point for fall shows, I don't think small moves in the Index matter very much. Not only do I not think that their future results are likely to vary much (although anything is possible), but I think for the most part the thinking within the networks on these shows has already set in stone. I don't think that the thinking within NBC about Law & Order, for example, is going to change (absent highly unlikely future ratings swings).
What can change is their thinking on their unaired spring shows (Southland, Parks & Recreation) and their pilots (which we don't track). For Law & Order (and other fall shows on the bubble) their die is cast, but how they rank vs. alternatives remains to be determined.
Friday Night Lights will escape cancelation only through the continuing largesse of DirecTV or some other sugar daddy (yes, we read Ausiello too) its ratings are terrible. Life & Knight Rider are certain to be canceled. Kath & Kim didn't have a bad start, but now it's sinking and looks like it will be canceled as well. Law & Order is right on the edge. I'm guessing history and the Dick Wolf mojo keep it alive.
Note that we have a new color category in the lists this week, Renewal Announced.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,167 | 3,250 | 0.36 | finished |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1,799 | 3,250 | 0.55 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,250 | 0.61 | canceled |
| KINGS | NBC | 2,164 | 3,250 | 0.67 | |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 2,284 | 3,250 | 0.70 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,400 | 3,250 | 0.74 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,250 | 0.81 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2,823 | 3,250 | 0.87 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,933 | 3,250 | 0.90 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,276 | 3,250 | 1.01 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,300 | 3,250 | 1.02 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 3,502 | 3,250 | 1.08 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,177 | 3,250 | 1.29 | final season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,237 | 3,250 | 1.30 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,454 | 3,250 | 1.37 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,123 | 3,250 | 1.58 | returning |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,321 | 3,250 | 1.64 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Friday Night Lights. Even for Friday night, those numbers are turn out the lights awful. But last season, DirecTV pulled out its checkbook and the show continued for another season. If DirecTV (or someone else) is inclined to do it again, the numbers may not matter at all. If they're not inclined to write the check again, the show's certain to be cancelled at the end of this season.
Heroes is definitely back for next season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
*sigh*
I really wish I could find a way to spin Life.
I’ve finally managed to catch up with it now and I’m going to miss it next year.
Um, if you’re going to put Heroes down as returning, The Office and 30 Rock definitely need to be black. They actually had an official announcement that they were renewed, rather than a comment from an exec in an interview.
Oops, I must have missed that Julia. I will change them. Throw a link into the comments if you can as well.
http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/watch_with_kristin/b79347_30_rock_office_get_early_pickups.html
I think you guys did a post on it, too, at the time, but maybe I’m remembering wrong.
i have three family members/relatives that love chuck, but all i care about is that 30 Rock and The Office are in the black! Hopefully Parks And Recreation won’t disappoint, and i suspect it will make the fall cut as well.
I know the index is pretty steady now, but I’m still happy to see that Chuck didn’t drop.
I will miss LIFE so much.
I hope they try to find some kind of deal, like FNL.
I know everybody says that, but I think it’s NBCs fault. If it were handled in a different way it could at least have a chance.
cool.I think it was a mistake on nbc part to show reruns this week.But hey atleast chuck is staying green.
Why is ER listed as renewal likely? I thought they were ending it this year.
Just out of curiosity, does anybody remember a situation where the last four or five episodes of a 22-episode season turned the ratings around enough to save the show from cancellation?
I doubt it happens for the reasons listed – that by the end of the season, the die is cast both by the viewers and the network execs.
But does anybody remember it happening for any show in their memory?
Can i ask bill and rob why does it seem reruns on certain stations get sucky ratings?
ER is a mistake will fix later.ER now correctly tagged/colored.“their die is cast”
That’s two uses of ‘alia iacta est’ and one mention of the Rubicon in short order. I’m guessing somebody’s been into the Asterix.
Travis, pretty much lately it seems everyone but CBS gets sucky ratings with repeats.
Nikki Finke rakes Silverman and Zucker over the coals for Kings:
I have a thought: to improve performance, NBC Universal should rebrand Silverman as Ben SYlverman. That’s a lot more likely than Zucker ever admitting he made a big mistake hiring him in the first place.
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/ben-silverman-to-blame-for-kingly-bomb/
Travis,don’t ask-the explanation might involve the word serial!
Alright my bad.Actually i already saw parts of the serial and non serial talk.So dont worry i wont even ask.
I still don’t think Kings was anywhere near as bad as the ratings suggested or a lot of the critics have claimed and its not as if you couldn’t tell they’d spent huge sums of money on the show. I’m even tempted to say that if Kings have been on CBS, Fox or even ABC people would be telling a very different story about it now.
“Can i ask bill and rob why does it seem reruns on certain stations get sucky ratings?”
Because the original airings aren’t getting very good ratings either? That’s clearly the case for any repeat on NBC – outside of maybe The Office although I can’t really remember how that does in repeats.
whoever wrote the article about kings being a premiere doesn’t seem to know much about tv, since they said life was new this year, so i wouldn’t believe it.