Last week's fast affiliate overnight numbers for Dollhouse showed an uptick in its 18-49 Live+SD demo rating from the prior week. Was it the start of a comeback, or just a one week blip? The difference could spell either renewal or cancelation. Note that the Dollhouse Renew/Cancel Index still fell from 0.64 to 0.63 this week. While its results improved from week to week, they were still below its average for all airings.
Not much left to say about Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles except "Enjoy the last 4 episodes."
Note that we have a new color category in the lists this week, Renewal Announced.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1,617 | 3,530 | 0.46 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,530 | 0.59 | cancelled |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 2,224 | 3,530 | 0.63 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,530 | 0.67 | renewed |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2,988 | 3,530 | 0.85 | final season |
| American Dad | FOX | 3,599 | 3,530 | 1.02 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 3,733 | 3,530 | 1.06 | final season |
| Bones | FOX | 4,015 | 3,530 | 1.14 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 4,167 | 3,530 | 1.18 | renewed |
| Family Guy | FOX | 4,573 | 3,530 | 1.30 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,586 | 3,530 | 1.30 | |
| 24 | FOX | 5,060 | 3,530 | 1.43 | |
| Lie To Me | FOX | 5,569 | 3,530 | 1.58 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,223 | 3,530 | 1.76 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
Prison Break is in its final season.
'Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a sweet deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It's 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
i can’t imagine fox renewing dollhouse… why not bring back 5th grader/lyrics? they must be a ton cheaper for roughly the same results.
And once again the Sarah Connor Society is touting the DVR numbers as evidence TSCC has live left in it.
Quote:
“So what does this mean? Well Chuck and Dollhouse had smaller percentages but their overall numbers were higher. TSCC started though w/ lower initial ratings than these shows which is why the percentage jumped up massively. The most important part of this is that the demographics got increased, so long as the series continues to show that the right amount of 18-49 demos are watching, it could still have life on the network. Again, we don’t know the numbers of iTunes/Amazon downloads, or the numbers of hits on FoxonDemand and Hulu.
Regardless – I’m expecting next week’s numbers for OURSELVES ALONE to be staggeringly huge as further proof that TSCC fans didn’t abandon their show, they just went to go see WATCHMEN in theaters on opening night.”
I don’t know where they get the idea that a 1.6 is the “right amount” of 18-49 viewers!
Worse, this is the description of episode 21 – the next to last episode of the series!
“When John attempts to rescue Skynet’s latest target he finds himself closing in on Weaver.”
He could have “closed in on Weaver” FIFTEEN EPISODES AGO! All they had to do was follow up on the nuclear power plant incident, find out that Automite was going to automate it, and find out that Weaver owns Automite. Trivial. Of course that would have meant no long term development of “The Turk” and all of the nonsense of Ellison trying to teach Skynet religion…
And worse, last week’s and this week’s episodes contain more screen time for Jesse than even Sarah! This is a character that does not need “development”. Nobody cares why she’s doing what she’s doing – everybody just wants her dead. Derek needs to put a bullet in her and move on.
But the writers on the official blog are talking about how submarine movies are “cool”. This is one reason the show went off the rails – writing “cool” episodes instead of paying attention to the story arc and the requirements of the franchise.
I warned about this back when “Goodbye to All That” aired, as the entire crew spent more time oggling the “.45 longslide” Arnold carried in T-1 which appeared in that episode than they did covering plot holes.
“Cool” is okay in moderation. Too much “cool” and your show gets canceled because nobody cares about it but you and two other hardcore fans.
128 I agree with Bill on Dollhouse – it can still go either way right now I’m leaning more toward renewal than the axe but that’s just me.
RSH, Sarah Connor Society folks are drinking the kool-aid. Not to call them out as the only imbibers, but they are chugging it.
Dollhouse has a few advantages TSCC doesn’t. It’s a limited run (13 eps) so Fox giving it a partial renew – as a midseason replacement next year, or as a 13 ep second season, aren’t out of the question. Fox also still hold a commit or pay deal with Dushku, a high six figure deal for film/tv. Renew even for half a season, and you keep the film/tv deal in place, if not, they still have to commit her another vehicle or buy her out. Fox may look at it like “eh, if it does OK and could improve, we’re better off trying then cutting bait”.
I think TSCC is gone. No one on that show has any leverage anywhere, no agreements in place, ratings suck, so what do they have to get over? If Dollhouse ratings were in the toilet, it’d be worth it, but as it is, it may be a wash.. if it ticks up some, a worthwhile gamble. But TSCC? Nothing at all in it for Fox. No way they stick with it. Hell, Dollhouse is waiting for the much better ratings lead in of “Prison Break” which even in it’s last year is pulling in damn near double the numbers of TSCC.
Chris, buying out of a six figure deal is not that big a deal. Less than the cost of one episode of Dollhouse, no matter how high six figures.
It’s about the cost of an ep. Still, if it’s on the fence, like I said, pocket the money and commit as a midseason replacement. If it stays at about this level for the rest of the year, then it’s got a fair chance at that as a first season show with one of the worst lead-ins on network TV on a Friday (Sorry TSCC fans, but it IS the worst lead in on TV)
128boy, it is 500,000 viewers better in the 18-49 demo than 5TH GRADER and over 300,000 viewers better than LYRICS. So it makes more money (even with the shorter commercial breaks). It also will make DVD money which those shows will not.
It’s more profitable for FOX. Will they keep it?
Pete is leaning to “No.” So if I was to guess today, that answer would be “No.” However it could trend back up. If it does I’ll have to gauge Pete some more. I’d guess “No,” will be the answer.
The great news is Pete seems convinced that Friday should have good TV on it, and that it can make money. So he may be willing to gamble.
It getting a short mid season pickup is also possible. 13 weeks of the year, airing new DOLLHOUSE episodes likely couldn’t hurt. It’s profitable.
Bill, there isn’t a lot of interest in realism over at SCS. I got banned from there because they didn’t like my attitude (they’re serious “Board Nazis” over there as far as moderation rules – go “off topic” for one sentence, they’re editing your posts!). The folks at the official Wiki hate me, too, so I decided it was a waste of time to post there.
As for Eliza’s deals, while some people are claiming she can’t act, and I think a couple times on Dollhouse she’s hit some false notes, basically I find her believable. Where that applies is I think Fox could easily find something else for her if Dollhouse goes down. However, she is one of the producers and of course the whole thing was to work with Joss again, so it’s up to her if she wants to just take a buyout and forget about it or wants to negotiate another deal for other work at Fox. I could see Fox telling her “Dollhouse isn’t working, but we’ll put you somewhere else” and she would go along, if unhappy about another Joss (and her) failure.
Chris, it’s not fair to compare Prison Break’s numbers to TSCC’s. Prison Break hasn’t been on Fridays yet. That being said,TSCC’s numbers suck.
I don’t see this coming week helping the trend any for Dollhouse. From a scheduling point of view, Dollhouse is something of a Schleprock. Fridays, launched on a Friday the 13th competing with a Friday the 13th movie and early Valentines, later competing with Watchmen.
Finally, the heralded “THIS is the episode that showcases what Dollhouse is all about!!!” episode arrives and it’s up against the BSG finale and NCAA B-Ball.
Nick c., 500k more viewers in the demo vs. 5th grader isn’t a fair comparison, because dollhouse airs in a higher HUT hour. As for the 300k more than Lyrics (and even if the 500k was an appropriate comparison), how much cheaper do you think those shows are than dollhouse or tscc?
Chris when you say prison break has double numbers compared to TSCC, I think you have compared friday numbers of TSCC with monday numbers of PB, which is unfair because we do not know what PB will do in fridays (i hope better but.. ). I think you must compare monday numbers of both shows, which are nearly the same, in a night where there is a bigger competition. and those numbers are bigger than a renewed show of fox: till something.. i do not remember..
I think Pb will get similar numbers as dollhouse on Fridays, since Friday viewers only watch a show where Jennifer talks with dead people in every episode… If fox wants to get better numbers, i think they must be patient on their shows (at least for DH) to change the habit of the viewers..
Robert, I think a better and broader rule would be: Show me a week where there is NOTHING going on in the nation that could potentially detract viewers from X show. The truth is that all shows face competition from a wealth of places EVERY SINGLE WEEK. Trying to blame a shows weak performance on something like that is just grasping at straws, and following what-if scenarios.
the128boy, I agree in general. When people say “Chuck” or “Life” are getting screwed because of their time slots, I’m not a big believer in that thinking.
And I don’t think Dollhouse was screwed by its time slot, as many have noted, if it had launched Mondays at 8pm, it might already be off the air. But the way it worked out, the much heralded (we’ll see if there’s any there, there) 6th episode rolls around vs. BSG finale and NCAA B-Ball. FOX has tried to pitch Friday nights to young men who are stuck at home.
The promotional pitches I heard for Dollhouse on sports radio were along the lines of “Beautiful women programmed to do whatever they’re told!” I think the B-Ball will hurt more than BSG, we’ll see. But I think there may well be nearly a million people who watch Dollhouse to kill time before BSG comes on. Some of those people won’t be watching Dollhouse this week. Was not finger pointing to the time slot, just more of a commentary on the Schleprock nature Dollhouse seems to have. I
Re: PB vs TSCC on Mondays, PB had 9% more viewers in the demo.
TSCC: 2,726
PB: 2,988
Renew/Cancel index from week before TSCC moved to Friday
I tend to agree with the128boy on that. Shows are supposed to survive no matter what they’re up against. Some do, some don’t. I think the most relevant comparison is in the show’s quality, not external events or even time moves (although I think hiatuses should be taken into account).
I think you can use external events to explain a given week relative to some other nearby week, to a point, but not for the overall performance of a season.
^^ completely agree
Thanks Julia. If the 9% difference between TSCC and PB on Mondays survives on Fridays, then PB will get similar numbers as DH. We will see. I hope in its last season PB gets more higher numbers which also helps DH to get higher numbers..
Hagi, unfortunately, that may just be attributable to the higher HUT levels at 9pm. I’m not sure PB will hold up any better than TSCC.