Lots of public chatter about next season coming from CBS. Chief Les Moonves says “CBS Only Has Room For 3 or 4 New Shows Next Season”, and Entertainment President Nina Tassler says about the Wednesday comedy block “We’ve improved the time period, so it’s something we’d like to stick with.” as well as CBS doing a bit of public negotiating to knock down the prices on Cold Case and Without A Trace.
That chatter, plus the relatively good results this season, makes the CBS moves for next fall the most interesting, simply because they are the least predictable. A lot of existing shows (The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, The Unit, Cold Case, Without A Trace, Worst Week) are in some danger, but only a few will be canceled. At this point I’m going with Christine and Trace surviving, but it’s going to be nail biting time for lots of fans.
As for Eleventh Hour, the Index says its coming back and I’m sticking with it. The Retentionistas* hate the show because it loses so much of CSI’s audience. If their flip-flop on Lie To Me is any indication, they’ll likely be ignoring their current attitudes come May.
*Those who value retention of lead-in audience above all else in comparing show prospects.
Note that we have a new color category in the lists this week, Renewal Announced.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
|PROGRAM||Net||STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)||Network Avg. STD 18-49||Renew/ Cancel index||Status|
|EX LIST, THE||CBS||2,443||3,840||0.64||canceled|
|WITHOUT A TRACE||CBS||3,510||3,840||0.91|
|BIG BANG THEORY, THE||CBS||4,621||3,840||1.20|
|HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER||CBS||4,896||3,840||1.28|
|RULES OF ENGAGEMENT||CBS||5,003||3,840||1.30|
|TWO AND A HALF MEN||CBS||6,209||3,840||1.62|
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The New Adventures of Old Christine: CBS has tried to create a second "comedy block" this season on Wednesday by moving Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS's worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
Worst Week got the best slot in CBS's lineup for a new comedy, but has performed just below average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.