Although the Renew/Cancel index lists Chuck as safe and likely to be renewed, the index has never encountered either an NBC that is performing as poorly as NBC is this year, or an NBC that is cutting five hours out of its prime-time lineup next year to make room for Jay Leno.
While I won't be terribly surprised if NBC renews Chuck, I won't be surprised if they don't either. Chuck's performance relative to NBC's average season-to-date 18-49 viewing (minus the Super Bowl) is OK, in fact it's almost performing exactly at the average. However, NBC's average stinks. Still, normally shows that perform average are not canceled by networks. But normally, networks don't clear five hours of the prime-time schedules for Jay Leno. Since Chuck's numbers aren't great (or even good, honestly) in the absolute, I don't think its fate is sealed just because of its performance in the index.
We probably won't know anything before NBC announces its lineups in early May and are just going to have to ride it out until then. While hand-wringing won't change the show's fate any, it at least gives fans something to do between now and early May! And the fans don't have to sit idle because the results for tonight's episode which we will report tomorrow (Tuesday) morning will be interesting at least for me.
The last time Chuck aired two weeks ago, it aired against a full line-up of competition, including the premiere of Dancing with the Stars (one of the best premieres it had in years). Tonight though, House is a repeat. Two weeks ago when it wasn't Chuck averaged 5.7 million viewers and a 2.0 rating with adults 18-49. Without a new House, I am looking for Chuck to improve by at least 10% -- meaning it will go back to having more than 6 million viewers, and more importantly at least a 2.2 rating with adults 18-49.
If it does increase by 10%, I don't know that it will really mean anything positive to its survival. But if it doesn't increase by at least 10%, I would view that as a significant negative and think it likely the folks at NBC would too.
While I am a huge fan of Chuck, there are some things I don't necessarily share in common with the fandom. For one, if NBC winds up canceling Chuck because it thinks it's a marginal performer, I won't be able to fault NBC for such logic. I won't be mad or upset at NBC, and I will be happy that they at least aired around 35 episodes of a show I really liked. That's how I feel about most shows. Life (also on NBC) will surely be cancelled, and Life on Mars (ABC) already has been canceled and its series finale will be on April 1.
I don't feel like the networks are treating me personally badly by not renewing shows that don't have great ratings, and the knowledge that those two shows are done doesn't really do anything to take away my enjoyment of them, and if NBC winds up not renewing Chuck, I will feel exactly the same way. But I understand I do not in any way speak for all of the fans with that particular viewpoint. Indeed, I may even be in the minority.
I think NBC should move the last 5 shows to Weds. or Sundays. There are too many good shows on Mondays. Take my word for it move the last shows to either night and watch the rating go up. If Chuck is as good as NBC says it is why not move the night and help the show find a larger audience. What does NBC have to lose? The shows Kings did a 4 milliion rating last night and the Chef show did even worse on Weds.
Man…this is so stressful for us Chuck fans! Waiting sucks…but I completely understand and agree with your viewpoint. While I will seriously be heartbroken if it is not renewed, I will at least UNDERSTAND the rationale. I am still hopeful and I think Chuck has a good chance for renewal, it’s still nerve wracking in NBC’s current situation. I think Chuck SHOULD be renewed as it is one of NBC’s best, but it’s not in my control. In the meantime I’m going to remain hopeful and keep watching a season that looks to be even more exciting in the coming weeks!
but if you change the time, your gonna loose viewers…
Wait, Robert. Do you mean to tell me that when a network cancels a show it’s nothing personal? That’s crazy talk! We all know that Moonlight, Jericho, and Lipstick Jungle were canceled to spite millions of people.
While I won’t be terribly surprised if NBC renews Chuck, I won’t be surprised if they don’t either.
Uh, oh, Chuck fans. I think Robert’s track record is that when he says this, the show ends up being canceled.
I think CHUCK is gonna be renewed.
I like KINGS. Do you think it’s gonna be renewed? I mean, it’s a great show! They could try it on a different time slot. That time slot sucks.
Julia, are you trying to incite a riot here? lol
I’m a huge Chuckaholic and would be extremely devastated if NBC decides to let it go. I won’t blame NBC.. I’ll just blame Jay Leno
Julia, I’m sure I said exactly the same thing after TSCC’s first season, and they got another season out of it! While there may have been special circumstances involved with making that happen that don’t exist for Chuck, NBC has the special circumstance of being NBC…
so there is nothing we can do right now but enjoy the show while it last… no metter it will lest for 6 more episodes or 56 more
although i hope for 3rd season… go team bartowski!
You said it, Jenna. SO stressful! When I saw the word “Chuck” under new stories, my heart skipped a beat, because honestly, every time I see news on it now, my first thought is that NBC has announced that they’re canceling it. I really, really, REALLY hope that House being in reruns boosts Chuck’s ratings.
I keep hearing conflicting things about whether we’ll now Chuck’s fate before the upfronts in May or not. I really hope we do, as having to watch the finale and not knowing if it’s the last ep will be torture. And like Chuck, I’m a 1 out of 10 on the torture pain scale.
ricardo, Kings time slot does not suck. it’s ratings suck. in fact all it goes up against is Fox’s animation block and two reality shows. it has no scripted drama competition in the hour. i doubt this show would have worked anywhere else. before i get a slew of people saying nbc should have left it in the thursday 10pm slot, let me say that unless that slot would have somehow doubled it’s numbers it would still be a goner.
NBC is TANKING. They have a show that is doing perfectly fine by any standard in NBC I mean friggen lipstick jungle was getting what 2-3 million viewers and eventually it got cancelled but it got renewed for ANOTHER season (season 2) even with such sucky ratings. a show that gets double sometimes triple that amount IS IN NO DANGER. im not worried at all!
Ricardo, Kings is doing the worst of any NBC scripted show not on Fridays or Saturdays. It’s done.
Matt, Lipstick Jungle was getting 3-4 million viewers when it aired on Fridays. When it was renewed, it was getting between 6 and 7 million viewers. Chuck’s last new episode was less than 6 million viewers.
I wonder if TV producers should start thinking about mini-series. I figure that as fans we will know there will be a definitive ending, and won’t have to stress about the show being canceled or not. We can just enjoy it.
A mini-series can still be yanked early if the ratings are horrible enough.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Chuck will be renewed, but for only 13 episodes to premiere on Sundays at 8pm in the winter after football.
When one of the more optimistic sites is now stating that Chuck is on the bubble, I get worried.
tony, i think there is a really good chance that Chuck will be back either in the fall, or like you have suggested in the spring. NBC always saves some shows for midseason, and at the very least they could do that.