I've written in the past that if Castle held onto its premiere ratings it would get renewed, retention be damned. Sadly for Castle, cracks are starting to appear, and its numbers are slipping. Last night's show drew only a 2.5 18-49 rating, that's 92.5% of ABC's 18-49 average, putting it right on the edge for renewal. It still could be OK if it can hold that 2.5 demo rating, but any further erosion and it's a goner. Based on the slip last night, I'm changing it to "In Danger".
No such doubt over the numbers for the premiere episode of Better off Ted. They're solidly the "not being renewed" territory.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
|PROGRAM||Net||STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)||Network Avg. STD 18-49||Renew/ Cancel index||Status|
|ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P||ABC||2,183||3,580||0.61||final season|
|SCRUBS-WED 8PM||ABC||2,203||3,580||0.62||final season|
|SCRUBS-TU 9PM||ABC||2,447||3,580||0.68||final season|
|ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM||ABC||2,460||3,580||0.69||final season|
|SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM||ABC||2,543||3,580||0.71||final season|
|DIRTY SEXY MONEY||ABC||2,549||3,580||0.71||canceled|
|BETTER OFF TED||ABC||2,825||3,580||0.79|
|BOSTON LEGAL||ABC||2,856||3,580||0.80||final season|
|LIFE ON MARS||ABC||2,981||3,580||0.83||canceled|
|UGLY BETTY||ABC||3,011||3,580||0.84||coming back|
|BROTHERS & SISTERS||ABC||4,687||3,580||1.31|
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I'm keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.