...with the exception of Chuck, the overall Live+7 rating with 18-49 year olds continued declines from prior weeks. This data is for the March 6, 2009 episodes of Dollhouse and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles and the March 2, 2009 airing of Chuck. The increases by DVR for TSCC are very impressive on a percentage basis, but unfortunately the absolute numbers (1.5 rating with 18-49s in TSCC's case) matter much more.
Bill will post the the full DVR top twenty lists later, but here's the 18-49 data for those three shows.
| Show | Live+SD 18-49 Rating | Live+7 18-49 Rating | %increase |
| Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles | 1.03 | 1.50 | 45.6% |
| Dollhouse | 1.51 | 2.11 | 39.7% |
| Chuck | 2.42 | 2.90 | 19.8% |
I hope that NBC will take note of this when it comes time to decide to renew Chuck.
Robert, any idea how much this matters to the networks? Or, are they really only concerned with live + same day?
1.0… that must “Ourselves Alone”. Hmm… 1.5 including DVRs. *thinks*
David, historically it hasn’t mattered any. Given the absolute numbers, it won’t likely matter for TSCC at all. Given bubble show statuses for Chuck and Dollhouse, it may factor into the thinking, but I’d imagine only a little more.
I’m guessing all that really matters is the commercial (C3 — commercial viewing live plus 3 days of DVR viewing) viewing that matters most. Unfortunately we don’t see that but you can more or less triangulate around it on a relative basis with live+SD and live+7.
Veran, actually both numbers include DVR, but the first number only includes same day DVR viewing (up to 3am Saturday morning). The difference measured here was live+7 vs live+SD (commonly reported numbers) and not live plus seven versus live (which would account for ALL DVR viewing), but since we see the SD DVR viewing in the overnights, it seems the more useful comparison.
What is so valuable about 3 days versus 7? Are the cars being advertised not available after 3 days? Do cans of soup vanish from store shelves?
Will, it’s what the TV networks and advertisers could come to common agreement on as far as DVR viewing. historically most of the viewing happened in the first three days anyway (at least for shows), but I haven’t seen day of week breakouts in a while. Aside from movies, I agree the shelf-life of the ads is greater than 3 days. It’s also important to note that from what we’ve seen, the advertising viewing via DVR doesn’t bump the viewing up nearly as much as it does for show viewing (most fast forward through the ads most of the time).
Yeah, but Fringe and Dollhouse have an advantage over other shows in that people are less likely to fast forward through 60 or 90 seconds of commercials.
It’s still a matter of debate as to whether FFing through commercials is as useless as advertisers believe. A person’s awareness and focus is improved while FFing cos’ they have to concentrate in order to stop when the episode starts. This means they remember the ads better than if they were watching at normal speed, cos’ then they could just zone out or go and make a cuppa.
I dunno if advertisers widely share this POV. I hope they do, otherwise what use is the DVR?
The reduced commercials in Dollhouse work, and they work well. Every episode of Dollhouse I’ve watched, it’s essentially pointless to change the channel or even do anything away from the TV while the commercial is on. 60 seconds gives you no time to do anything, 90 seconds you can maybe grab a drink.
For my DVR viewing, I do buy into the idea that you will remember the brand, but not necessarily the commercial content while fast forwarding. You have to concentrate while zipping through them, so you are very intent on the screen. If I were an advertiser I’d make sure my commercial could be viewed live but also had a prominent logo displayed for the people fast forwarding.
Frank, it’s not pointless if you’re watching on the DVR and have timeshifted and have programmed your remote with a “30 second skip button”. Then “Remote Free” = “remote Friendly!” Two or three presses of the button and voila! But I agree, the benefit of the Remote Free concept is that if you’re watching live, there’s far less incentive to switch and the commercial viewing numbers do back that up.
Veran, I’m sure the debate on the value of seeing commercials whisk by as people fast-forward will persist, perhaps forever. in the meanwhile, Nielsen says it does NOT COUNT TIME SPENT FAST FORWARDING in the numbers, and so whatever value might exist is currently NOT being paid for by the advertisers.
I think the idea that people are being subconsciously “brainwashed” by the ad while fast forwarding is so much BS handed out by advertising companies (note, not ADVERTISERS – ad companies who do the ads). They’re trying to justify their work.
It’s on a par with the frequently suggested concept of using “subliminal” advertising, which has never been shown to work if I remember correctly.
It certainly isn’t likely to make most advertisers interested in DVR numbers compared to live viewers when the live viewers are next to non-existent compared to other shows.
Everybody knows word of mouth works better than advertising anyway. The ad companies have been fighting this meme tooth and nail for decades since it’s their livelihood at stake.
I think advertisers are interested in DVR numbers for the most logical reason: it provides one more data point as to whether the show is interesting to ANYBODY.
So I take the notion that FF viewers are significant to a show’s renewal based on DVR numbers with a boatload of salt.
Thank you, Richard Steven Hack. I have been studying ( for the hell of it ) textbooks on video editing etc and shows are grouped around ads, by color schemes, eye saccading, yada yada — I began taking notes. If Rory Gilmore moves a vase of orange flowers from right to left, for no ostensible reason, you will see a say Lowes ad and a whole sequence of ads with precisely arranged color orange and yellow schemes. Any old New Age acid burnout or psych professor will tell you how much color means. It’s subliminal only to the extent you ignore it. Funny how the only people who read Marshall McLuhan are in advertising. This isn’t a blog, but I encourage anyone with a pad and pen one night to keep track of this stuff. You’ll see what TV is all about, and why so far the monetizing eyeballs stuff on the Net is a pipedream. And yes, only a very skillful spinmeister could maintain that fast forwarding through ads is better than watching them. The PR folks at AIG could use a guy like that.
Live ratings are obsolete, ESPECIALLY for 18-35 year olds. Everybody records, everybody goes out on weekends and at night. (Well not everyone, but the majority do…) People download, watch online, and buy DVDs…even all legally to get their media and shows. If AMERICAN networks believe in the antiquated system of ‘ratings’ of how many people watched the show live, they’re idiots, and if decent shows get cancelled, even though they have worldwide appeal, on both DVD and online, they are absolute MORONS. (Well maybe they are in any case.) Terminator is a globally recognized franchise, FOX’s dependence on ratings will kill the show, because Americans are watching some giddy reality-TV show instead…how sad. Hopefully, WARNER BROTHERS recognizes a good product when they have it, and at least gives it to an HBO outlet, or European Television, because AMERICAN RATINGS are absolutely stupid, and ruin every good show that comes down the pike. Screw American TV networks, and American ratings. Did you know Lena Headey is british?
Well, Mac, the problem is that even many TSCC initial fans deserted or became disgruntled at the direction that show went.
The wider audience tuned in to what they thought was TERMINATOR, got a family drama and psychoanalytic study that moved at the pace of a glacier, and bailed.
It’s that simple for that show.
It doesn’t matter HOW good the writing was for the “Crazy Sarah” episodes – and it was excellent. NOBODY CARED except Josh Friedman and Sarah Connor fans.
I suspect if you polled the fan boards, the vast majority of those fans who thought the show improved in season two were probably women. Males who wanted more action, more Summer Glau and less talk probably are the disgruntled ones.
That was why the ratings went down. It doesn’t matter that more and more people switched to DVR instead of live. They did that because the show was not COMPELLING enough to watch live compared to whatever else those people do in their lives.
And THAT is what advertisers pay for – a show that allows them to advertise to live viewers, not DVR people who fast forward through the ads.
Call it the devaluing of live TV if you want. And that goes along with the devaluing of media in general, which is why you have downloaded music vs paid CDs, downloaded or DVD movies instead of theater viewership, etc. You’re right about that. Nobody wants to PAY for media anymore (if they ever did except during that historical period where digital wasn’t feasible), just ACCESS to media.
So they don’t want to pay even by watching advertising – which everybody universally despises anyway. So the ad agencies and the advertisers are screwed – and hence so are the media and the fans of that media.
But that’s the way it is. Until the disconnect between the media industries and technology is erased, a lot of media is going to be caught in the abyss.
But for TSCC, it would have helped to have the focus of the show where it belonged – on being TERMINATOR.
This is a good sign for Chuck. NBC has gotta keep this show!
The sad thing about Terminator is if they had done Season Two in the same vein as Season One, the show would have made it. But what happened was FOX wanted more procedural, and they wanted Riley. Friedman had to take that and run with it. Unfortunately they ran the complete WRONG direction. FOX, living in bizarro world, kept saying how completely they loved the creative direction of the show, and yet the cracks were coming on strong by the end of the fall to the point they had to save themselves from embarrassment and get it off Mondays.
The second part of the season has had excellent writing if you’re looking for psychoanalysis, but nothing interesting as far as what Terminator should be about. Its pretty sad actually. And now they start having good episodes again. Who’s even watching anymore? I record it and watch over the weekend. Or use to. I haven’t even watched Friday’s episode yet. I may not. I may just let them record to the end of the show and then watch them all at once. Series end. Fin.
My only hope is that Summer can find a good job on another show.
I am so hoping that Terminator will somehow will be saved. Also, I have started watching Chuck lately and I have to say I like it. I hope that is renewed as well.
I’m not surprised. Stage Fright (ep 3 DH) was enough to put anyone off. Bring on next week’s numbers!
Dollhouse shouldn’t really sit stagnant any more. some BSG fans should come on board, eps 5 and 6 should have done their work and roped people in. OTOH, people who weren’t impressed with eps 1-5 stuck out for ep 6, and if they didn’t find what they were looking for after hearing it was suppose to be a great episode, they won’t be coming back.
Either way, DH can’t afford to sit stagnant at 1.5, or it doesn’t have much chance at renewal unless Fox are counting on massive DVD merch sales to make it worthwhile, or there’s just nothing new they’d rather take a punt on.
It really is sad these days that shows don’t get much of a chance to find their own place. It’s case of prove yourself ( find the right numbers and / or demo ) in season one – if you’re lucky enough to get a full season – or snip you’re gone.
Try to please the advertisers, the networks and the fans … oh boy.
What disses me the most is that there aren’t many scifi shows anyway … just cops, lawyers, & forensics copies of copies. And every scifi show that fails is just one more nail in the coffin of scifi on TV.