via MediaPost
DVRs also significantly lift "L3" ratings over "live-only" in the 18-to-34 demo by 24% -- and among adults 25 to 54 by 20%, on average. Even among viewers 55-plus, "L3" ratings increase 7% in prime time.
Data for local markets also shows that while 90% of DVR playback takes place within three days, 75% occurs within just one day. Further evidence that people may be looking to avoid commercials: 20% of playback takes place within only five minutes of live broadcast.
The data comes from a report that Nielsen sent to a select group of clients. Prime-time ratings do not include the 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. hour.
The new "L3" data is derived from "program ratings" and not the "commercial ratings" used in national TV buying as a currency. Before January, Nielsen had only offered "live" and "live plus seven day" overnight data streams.
As of last November, some 29% of households in Nielsen's local people meter and local set meter markets had one or more DVRs.
That story which does contain a lot more numbers than the excerpt above (click to read the rest) is the first report about the new Live+3 "L3" program ratings that began being tabulated by Nielsen in January that measure program viewing within 3 days of airtime of local programming.
Those differ from the Live, Live+Same Day and Live+7 program ratings tabulated on a national basis that we regularly feature on our site, as well as the C3 commercial ratings we occasionally see reports about.
I did want to compare a few of those local numbers to the national DVR numbers we see every week. We don't usually post aggregate DVR statistics by network or age demo, but here are some comparisons.
Note that we do not have any Live+3 national data, only Live+7, so the comparisons are not entirely apples/apples. And its also not clear in the story over exactly what time period those numbers were taken (although it does mention January) The national prime-time ratings data referenced below is from the week of Jan 19-25, 2009. That's as close as I could get to a comparable time period.
L3 Local ratings boost 18-34 by 24%
L3 Local ratings boost 25-54 by 20%
L3 local ratings boost 55+ by 7%
Live+7 National ratings boost 18-34 by a range of 23-26% for ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox and 46% for the CW.
Live+7 National ratings boost 18-49 by a range of 18-25% for ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox and 39% for the CW.
Live+7 National ratings boost all viewing by a range of 13-19% for ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox and 27% for the CW.
I am surprised that the local L+3 ratings boost is by that much. When we used to see DVR data for cable programs they were much lower than broadcast prime-time, that's what I would have guessed for local shows as well. The fact that local programming is in a similar range as national prime-time is very interesting.
How long before the ratings don’t count with the dvr?
Billy, I’m not sure I understand your question. Today, advertising is priced based on the calculation of the people that actually watch the average commercial minute within each national prime-time show within 3 days of airdate (C3). That counts whatever DVR viewing is done during that period.
I’m sure this is a dumb question, Bill, but do advertisers really think their commercials are worth less to pay for between days 4 and 7 in a DVR viewing? I don’t know, it seems a bit odd. Since nothing is based strictly on the overnights, I would hope advertisers would be patient enough to let Nielsen compile the +7 data and base the rates on that.
This is probably why I don’t run a TV network.
Bill, my take was that article was largely referencing local data for nationally broadcast prime-time shows (but only between 8p-10p) so I’m not surprised the results were similar if I have that right.
The 20% of DVR playback starting within 5 minutes of the broadcast is interesting. That DID surprise me. Assuming the 1 day playback average of 75% represents a full day, that doesn’t surprise me, nor does the 90% within three days.
Patrick, those negotiations between the advertisers and networks already happened and they agreed on 3 days. If 90% of the DVR playback happens in that time, it probably doesn’t really matter anyway (especially when you factor in that most people don’t watch those commercials!). I think aside from movie ads on Wednesday-Fri trying to get you into the theater THAT weekend, most ads have a longer shelf life, but so few people are watching the ads beyond 3 days…
Patrick, as to how they came up with the magic number of 3 days, it was likely just the results of negotiations. Here’s my humorous take.
Networks: We want you to pay for Live+7 viewership!
Advertisers: You’re lucky we’ll pay for Live viewership!
Nets: How about 3 days of commercial viewing?
Ads: OK, Zzzzzzzz.
I think that cable shows are more likely to be scheduled in a “scatter” pattern, which allows you to view it after the first broadcast on live TV, than local programming. That’s probably what makes them less likely to be DVRed.
I find it interesting that the metrics seem to be designed in such a way that you cannot compare commercial ratings (C3) with full-programme ratings, whether national or local. I know the networks have all kinds of metrics in between, and I wonder if the advertisers do too. In that case, the C3 may be a good compromise for pricing and modelling, but I’d bet that individual advertisers are still selecting their pods based on something like “C-Live+SD”.
Ray, I wouldn’t assume because of *our* more limited access to data that Nielsen’s paying clients don’t have the ability to compare C3 ratings with similar program ratings. Based on trade press stories I’ve seen, they do have that ability to compare the data.
It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if that’s actually how the meeting went, Bill. :-O
Although I can’t imagine that online viewing and DVR+4/7 is completely useless. In some cases, they could be used as an indicator of the potential for any ancillary profits (syndication/DVD sales/merchandising, etc.) If I were NBC and Chuck was on the bubble (as it is, of course), I might try to market some of the things they have on the show (Buy More mugs, green shirts, name tags, the white shirt/black tie motif) (I wish TNT would market some of the tech stuff from Leverage.
) Wouldn’t that be cool.
Well, in some countries, TV networks are paying companies like Nielsen “exclusivity premiums”, basically so that they will have access to details and depths in the data that their advertiser clients don’t. I don’t know if that’s how it works in the US, however.
The problem with marketing the tech stuff from Leverage is that most of it doesn’t actually exist. LOL
Much as I love the show, it IS one of the less realistic shows on the tube. Most of what Hardison does would take months, not hours, to do, if it could be done at all.
And since I don’t like heights, Parker’s “zip line” gadget would scare the hell out of me!
I love all the Leverage characters, though, they’re so cool. And both Parker and Sophie are SO hot! Can’t wait for season two!