Lots of news this week about how CBS is currently losing money and NBC Universal is making money. Much, if not most, of that difference is due to their different corporate makeups. In the broadcast ratings race, there's no contest, CBS has done relatively better compared to last season than its broadcast competition this season.
Because of that relative success, CBS has few shows doing terribly. With only Harper's Island yet to premiere, there's not likely much happening with the numbers until CBS makes its announcements on or before its upfront presentation on May 20.
Still, CBS will cancel some shows to give it some fresh spots in the schedule next season. That leaves a basket of shows in a least a little bit of danger (The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, The Unit, Cold Case, Without A Trace, Worst Week).
The Friday shows (Flashpoint, Ghost Whisperer, Numb3rs) all have low Indexes, but lower expectations (or costs) as well, they look safe. As for Eleventh Hour, the Index says its coming back and I’m sticking with it. Those hoping I dine on crow may have their best chance with it.
Here's some past quotes to think about; CBS Chief Les Moonves says “CBS Only Has Room For 3 or 4 New Shows Next Season”, and Entertainment President Nina Tassler says about the Wednesday comedy block “We’ve improved the time period, so it’s something we’d like to stick with.” as well as CBS doing a bit of public negotiating to knock down the prices on Cold Case and Without A Trace.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EX LIST, THE | CBS | 2,443 | 3,880 | 0.63 | canceled |
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 2,630 | 3,880 | 0.68 | |
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,680 | 3,880 | 0.69 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 2,883 | 3,880 | 0.74 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2,912 | 3,880 | 0.75 | |
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 3,085 | 3,880 | 0.80 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,352 | 3,880 | 0.86 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,470 | 3,880 | 0.89 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,500 | 3,880 | 0.90 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 3,770 | 3,880 | 0.97 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 3,835 | 3,880 | 0.99 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 4,315 | 3,880 | 1.11 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,554 | 3,880 | 1.17 | |
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 4,632 | 3,880 | 1.19 | returning |
| Mentalist, THE | CBS | 4,649 | 3,880 | 1.20 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 4,720 | 3,880 | 1.22 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 4,800 | 3,880 | 1.24 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 4,850 | 3,880 | 1.25 | |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | 4,928 | 3,880 | 1.27 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,159 | 3,880 | 1.59 | returning |
| CSI | CBS | 6,409 | 3,880 | 1.65 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The New Adventures of Old Christine: CBS has tried to create a second "comedy block" this season on Wednesday by moving Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS's worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
Worst Week got the best slot in CBS's lineup for a new comedy, but has performed just below average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Old Christine will probably be renewed for syndication purposes and possibly to continue airing on wednesday nights next season, maybe with Rules of Engagement (Both shows are well established by now). As for Case and Trace, both shows aren’t doing bad but I’ll bet Cold Case will be the more likely candidate for renewal. If I had my way I would leave both shows in the same slots at least for one more season. The Unit and Worst Week are definitely dead. With low ratings Gary Unmarried is likely gone too and because it only 18 episodes and ending early, Eleventh Hour probably is dead as well.
Would their be any other reason other than cost why CBS would give BBT and TAAHM early renewals but not How I Met Your Mother. HIMYM is on of CBS best in the demo. I wondered if theres any reason other than that HIMYM is older and it’s cast is more expensive. I don’t know why they wouldn’t have made a fuss with the announcement of the other comedy renewals.
To answer your question, TBBT and TAAHM are produced by WB and have the same creator, which is probably why both were given deals early. HIMYM is produced by FOX and while its obviously going to get a fifth season, its possible that CBS doesn’t want to make a multi season deal right away.
Cold Case is coming back.
When’s CSI getting renewed seems like it would have a long time ago. Gary prob gets the axe and Christine gets one more season to save itself.
Anthony, CBS will probably announce the early renewals (like CSI) around mid April.
NCIS’ average always surprises me…
I wouldn’t be surprised that the CSI Franchise has already been renewed though I’m surprised that The Mentalist hasn’t been renewed yet although I expect it will be soon.
WaT and Cold Case is probably depends on how much budget trimming can be done to satistfy CBS and what dramas are in development.
Jon, announcements concerning shows that are certain to be renewed, like the CSI’s, are likely scheduled for specific marketing reasons.
Jon I suspect The Mentalist hasn’t already been (officially) renewed because CBS wanted to make sure it held its audience over the back nine. Its not unheard of for new shows to start big and the fade or completely fall apart during the back nine. Commander and Chief springs to mind although that was also plagued with production problems.
Commander in Chief was the perfect of how not to run a show with show runner changes which ruined a potential hit show. Thankfully The Mentalist has run smoothly so far and has become a hit in many countries such as the UK. I do think CBS is grooming it to eventually replace CSI in the future and I believe it could hit 20m next season.
The Mentalist pilot did surprisingly well in the UK I’m interested to see how it does audience retention wise this week. For those interested it was second in the 9PM timeslot although it did debut on a particularly week night across the board. Five however are looking at the very real possibility of being able to win the night with The Mentalist, which would be unheard of.
I think that CSB should keep without a trace and cold case… maybe with a small order of episodes…
and premiere new shows in the mid-season…
eleventh hour, worst week, the unit and gary unmarried i think they don’t survive one more season!
I am really surprised that NCIS has not been “renewal announced”. NCIS has been doing really good, in terms of ratings and stuff,ranking in on one of the top rated shows, at #5. NCIS should have already been announced for a new season. Personally I think that CBS should for sure renew NCIS, its a really successful show and it attracts alot of viewers. Also I am a fan of NCIS, it is one of my favourite shows, so I really hope that NCIS gets renewed for another season.Alot of fans and myself will be really disappointed if it does not get renewed. From the previous ratings NCIS will still continue to do well. So CBS please renew NCIS for another season. We will be really happy.
sandy, OF COURSE NCIS will be renewed. CBS will make their announcements timed for whatever they perceive is their maximum benefit.
Why is everyone surprised that renewal announcements haven’t come out yet? Has CBS ever made their early renewal announcements this early?
Some renewals depend on other things like who owns the rights, whether cast contracts are up for renewal, and whether ratings are rising or falling. Old Christine will be going into its 5th season (if renewed), but two of the previous seasons were partial seasons, so syndication potential is still a couple years off. Quality-wise, Gary Unmarried should be a slam-dunk renewal over Rules of Engagement; Gary’s nothing special but Rules is unbelievably lackluster. Given the aging of most of their dramas, it’s easy to see why CBS might be seriously considering cancelling a show or two that is still doing OK in the ratings (so they don’t get stuck with a decrepit schedule that fails all at once, like NBC did a few years back). Cold Case and Without a Trace have both gotten more than a little predictable and repetitive, so if CBS has a couple of good properties in development, it might be smart to roll the dice now.
Alex, with weak competition this week, I wouldn’t be surprised if The Mentalist does win its timeslot though I agree ratings will be interesting to watch. I bet that Five will be sending flowers to CBS, Warner Bros and Simon Baker to thank them.
Back to CBS, I wonder if the NCIS spin-off will get a 8pm like NCIS or will it be given a 9 or 10pm slot.
Jon, I doubt it will get an 8 pm slot simply because none are open.
Monday: comedies
Tuesday: NCIS
Wednesday: comedies (CBS indicated they wanted to keep the new comedy block)
Thursday: Survivor
Friday: Ghost Whisperer
Sunday: Amazing Race
I can’t see CBS moving any of those.
Besides the TAAHM and TBBT deal made a few weeks ago now other CBS shows have been renewed, However definitely coming back without a doubt are: CSI, CSI NY, CSI Miami, Criminal Minds, NCIS, The Mentalist. Survivor, TAAHM, TBBT, HIMYM, Ghost Whisperer, Numb3rs, Flashpoint, and Rules of Engagement. CBS will likely wait until May to renew these shows, but they will be back. CBS will also wait until May to give the fates of veterans Cold Case & Without a Trace, as well as freshman Eleventh Hour & Gary Unmarried.